Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Tampa Bay Team Total Over (21 -115)

Lean – TAMPA BAY (+3.5) over Cincinnati

· All of the lineup news in this game is only pointing in one direction for the total. The Bengals and Buccaneers will both be without two key contributors on defense while Joe Burrow will have his full arsenal of wide receivers after it looked dicey earlier in the week.

· Cincinnati’s defense will be without nickelback Mike Hilton and edge defender Trey Hendrickson. The two combined are worth 1.3 points according to our metrics.

· Hilton is conceding 0.97 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th). Backup nickelback Dax Hill will struggle on the inside versus Chris Godwin, who is averaging 1.56 yards per route run in the slot (12th).

· Hendrickson ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency and him being out will go a long way towards keeping Tom Brady upright on Sunday.

· Brady will look downfield against this defense when he isn’t facing pressure. Mike Evans has 9 receptions with 20+ air yards (7th) and he will line up across from Bengals cornerback Eli Apple, who ranks 9th-worst in coverage grade by PFF.

· Tampa Bay’s defense won’t have DT Vita Vea or CB Jamel Dean in uniform. The two are worth a point and a half.

· Vea ranks 8th in pass rushing efficiency and Dean ranks 10th in coverage grade by PFF.

· Burrow will be able to attack a backup cornerback on the outside without the threat of a collapsing pocket. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are averaging two deep targets per game, and I expect to see even more versus the Buccaneers.

· Cincinnati’s offense is targeting running backs on 22.9% of passes (5th-most), but Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine will be limited out of the backfield as Tampa Bay’s defense is conceding only 4.5 yards per target to RBs (2nd).

· Our model favors the Bengals by just 1.3 points, with a predicted total of 50.0 points, and the Bucs apply to an 89-37-5 ATS bounce-back situation that is based on their ugly blowout loss at San Francisco last week. Tampa also applies to a 421-281-17 ATS contrary indicator that is based on the difference in spread win percentages.

· With the model liking the over and the math and technical analysis both pointing towards Tampa Bay, we think the best play is the Bucs Team Total Over.

Tampa Bay Team Total Over 21 or less (-115 odds) is a Strong Opinion. If you don’t have Team Totals, then Tampa Bay +3.5 can be played as a Strong Opinion instead.