Cincinnati Bengals @ Philadelphia Eagles Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – PHILADELPHIA (-5/-4.5) over Cincinnati

Joe Burrow has covered the spread in his first two NFL starts and rookie quarterbacks are now 27-11-1 ATS in the first three weeks since 2013 before the league figures out how to exploit their weaknesses. However, Burrow really hasn’t been that successful thus far, averaging a league-low 4.6 yards per pass play. Only 10 of star receiver AJ Green’s 22 targets have been charted as catchable by PFF this year and the Bengals are likely to struggle offensively going forward if that quarterback-receiver connection doesn’t get fixed.

I do not expect Burrow to turn it around this week, as Philadelphia’s secondary matches up very well to defend Cincinnati’s main receiving threats with Darius Slay (11th in yards allowed per cover snap) taking away AJ Green and nickelback Nickell Robey-Coleman (finished top 5 in yards allowed per slot cover snap in 3-straight seasons) neutralizing Tyler Boyd on the inside. Malik Jackson and Fletcher Cox have combined for 14 pressures on the interior and will put heat on Burrow in this game given that Bengals’ RG Fred Johnson ranks last in pass blocking efficiency and LG Michael Jordan ranked 3rd-worst in pass blocking efficiency last year.

Carson Wentz has also been less than impressive in 2020 with just 41.5% of his passes deemed accurate (worst in the league by over 3 percentage points). Wentz’s 30.9% pressured dropback rate is actually lower than last season’s 35.8% mark so it’s tough to blame the offensive line. However, the Eagles might not need Wentz to win this game comfortably. Philadelphia’s 2nd-best rush offense should expose a Bengals rush defense ranked 4th-worst, which will be especially crucial as WRs Alshon Jeffrey and Jalen Reagor will not be available due to injuries.

The Eagles are -5 in turnover margin through the first two games, which has made them look even worse than they’ve actually been and has supplied us with a bit of line value. Our model favors the Eagles by 6.1 points with a predicted total of 46.3 points. Also, teams that fail to cover the spread by an average of more than 13 points in the first two weeks of the season are 50-27-1 ATS in week 3.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bengals
Eagles

CIN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 51.5 27.5
Succ Pass Plays 46.0% 42.7%
Sack Rate 6.2% 3.1%
Int Rate 1.4% 2.2%
Deep Pass Rate 14.8% 27.4%
Big Pass Yards 4.0% 42.8%
NYPP 4.4 8.0

Rush

Rush Plays 26.0 37.0
RB YPR 3.3 5.2
Stuff Rate 21.4% 16.0%
Succ Rush Plays 56.3% 50.5%
Big Rush Yards 15.2% 51.0%
Yards Per Rush 3.6 5.1

Game

All Snaps 77.5 64.5
Early Down Succ 49.8% 49.4%
Succ Rate 49.3% 47.3%
Big Yards Rate 9.5% 47.2%
Yards Per Play 4.2 6.3
Fumble Lost Rate 1.3% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 24.9 26.4
Run Ratio 34.5% 57.6%
Starting Field Pos 29.5 32.1
Game Control -2.3 2.3

Points 21.5 25.5

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	LAC	13 – 16 L	2.4	43.6% / 37.5%	7.7% / 6.3%	2.8% / 0.0%	4.4 / 6.5	50.0% / 41.0%	17.9% / 20.5%	4.4 / 4.0	67 / 71	48.1% / 42.3%	46.3% / 39.4%	12.5% / 39.8%	4.4 / 5.1	1.5% / 0.0%	41.8% / 54.9%	33.6 / 25.9
2	@CLE	30 – 35 L	-7.1	48.4% / 47.8%	4.7% / 0.0%	0.0% / 4.3%	4.5 / 9.5	62.5% / 60.0%	25.0% / 11.4%	2.8 / 6.1	88 / 58	51.6% / 56.5%	52.3% / 55.2%	6.5% / 54.6%	4.0 / 7.5	1.1% / 0.0%	27.3% / 60.3%	25.3 / 38.3

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@WAS	17 – 27 L	5.1	32.0% / 41.2%	16.0% / 8.8%	4.8% / 0.0%	4.2 / 4.7	35.3% / 36.1%	23.5% / 30.6%	3.4 / 2.2	67 / 70	33.3% / 42.9%	32.8% / 38.6%	61.1% / 25.1%	4.0 / 3.4	1.5% / 0.0%	25.4% / 51.4%	24.7 / 40.0
2	LA	19 – 37 L	-9.4	46.5% / 67.9%	0.0% / 3.6%	4.7% / 0.0%	5.6 / 9.2	73.1% / 59.0%	0.0% / 12.8%	4.7 / 4.9	69 / 67	57.1% / 65.4%	56.5% / 62.7%	17.1% / 52.8%	5.3 / 6.7	1.4% / 1.5%	37.7% / 58.2%	29.1 / 31.6

Cincinnati Bengals @

Philadelphia Eagles

Sun, Sep 27

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis