Game Analysis

Lean – Cincinnati (-4) over MIAMI

Lean – Over (47.5)

• This game would’ve been an over bet with Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel’s ability to toy with Cincinnati’s rookie linebackers if Miami hadn’t benched Tua Tagovailoa.
• The Dolphins are averaging 0.01 EPA/rush (3rd), and the Bengals are surrendering a 46.2% rush success rate (30th).
• Miami RB De’Von Achane is averaging 1.32 yards per route run (5th), and Cincinnati’s defense is surrendering a league-high 0.46 EPA/target to opposing running backs.
• However, Tagovailoa was benched, and McDaniel was correct, saying, “The quarterback play last night was not good enough.” Tagovailoa has a league-high 5.4% Turnover Worthy Play Rate.
• The betting market is also correct, moving 14 percentage points of win probability once it was announced that rookie Quinn Ewers is the starter. Tagovailoa is the best quarterback on the Dolphins, just like last season when he averaged 6.5 yppp compared to Tyler Huntley’s 5.0 yppp.
• Ewers does get the dream matchup for his first NFL start against a Bengals defense allowing a league-high 6.4 yppl, and the number jumps to surrendering 6.7 yppl in the snaps without All-Pro edge rusher Trey Hendrickson.
• Cincinnati WR Tee Higgins is likely out again, and he is averaging 0.22 EPA/target more than backup Andrei Iosivas.
• Joe Burrow will look inside to WR Ja’Marr Chase, who is averaging 1.80 yards per route run in the slot (6th). Miami nickelback Minkah Fitzpatrick suffered a calf injury last game and is likely sidelined. Fitzpatrick was allowing just 0.73 yards per cover snap in the slot (3rd).
• Our model favors the Bengals by 6.2 points, with a predicted total of 49.6 points.