Game Analysis
Lean – LAS VEGAS (+1) over Cincinnati
Lean – Over (49.5)
The Las Vegas defense has run Cover 3 on a league-high 335 snaps, which is 68 snaps more than any other team. That could be an issue for the Raiders given that Bengals’ QB Joe Burrow is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt versus Cover 3 this season (4th). Raiders’ safety Johnathan Abram surrendered 134 yards and two touchdowns last week and will be a liability against WR Ja’Marr Chase, who leads the NFL with 9 deep receptions. Las Vegas nickelback Nate Hobbs is conceding only 0.80 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th) and will shut down Tyler Boyd (20% target share).
Derek Carr averaged 7.6 yppp through the first 7 games with Henry Ruggs in the lineup but has dropped to 6.4 yppp the last two weeks without Ruggs as a deep threat. Carr targets running backs on 25.7% of passes (4th) and Bengals LB Logan Wilson has surrendered 441 receiving yards (3rd-most). Cincinnati edge defender Trey Hendrickson has 42 pressures (8th) but he will be limited by LT Kolton Miller, who ranks 11th in pass blocking efficiency.
Our model favors the Raiders by 2.0 points, even with Cincy coming off a bye, with a predicted total of 50.0 points. The Raiders also apply to a 36-6-2 ATS home dog/pick bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s humiliating 14-41 loss to KC. The lean on the over is based on the favorable matchups for each offense.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.89
41.33
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.4%
45.2%
-
Sack Rate
7.6%
6.2%
-
Int Rate
3.8%
1.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.0%
16.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
46.2%
39.1%
-
NYPP
7.58
6.30
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.00
23.89
-
RB YPR
3.99
3.93
-
Stuff Rate
26.2%
27.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.1%
43.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
33.9%
50.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.88
4.22
Game
-
All Snaps
59.89
65.22
-
Early Down Succ
52.1%
47.5%
-
Succ Rate
47.9%
44.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.1%
42.3%
-
Yards Per Play
6.04
5.54
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
0.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.71
28.99
-
Run Ratio
41.7%
36.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.59
29.86
-
Game Control
0.73
-0.73
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.78
39.33
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.2%
47.2%
-
Sack Rate
5.4%
5.9%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
1.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.7%
18.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
48.2%
33.9%
-
NYPP
7.33
5.87
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.00
28.56
-
RB YPR
3.68
4.31
-
Stuff Rate
25.6%
23.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.3%
49.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
37.8%
43.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.70
4.52
Game
-
All Snaps
63.78
67.89
-
Early Down Succ
54.9%
51.0%
-
Succ Rate
50.2%
48.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.0%
37.2%
-
Yards Per Play
6.02
5.30
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.88
27.77
-
Run Ratio
36.1%
42.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
0.00
0.00
-
Game Control
-1.22
1.22
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
MIN |
27 – 24 W |
3.43 |
46.9% /
43.4% |
15.6% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.78 /
6.34 |
52.8% /
36.4% |
25.0% /
45.5% |
4.14 /
3.05 |
68 /
75 |
60.4% /
41.1% |
50.0% /
41.3% |
40.0% /
37.3% |
5.38 /
5.37 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
52.9% /
29.3% |
27.23 /
24.62 |
| 2 |
@CHI |
20 – 17 W |
-6.62 |
41.2% /
25.9% |
11.8% /
11.1% |
10.0% /
4.2% |
5.26 /
3.07 |
40.0% /
41.2% |
15.0% /
32.4% |
3.45 /
3.62 |
54 /
61 |
42.1% /
34.9% |
40.7% /
34.4% |
26.8% /
28.0% |
4.59 /
3.38 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
37.0% /
55.7% |
26.64 /
39.70 |
| 3 |
@PIT |
24 – 10 W |
8.82 |
55.6% /
41.9% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
5.6% /
3.4% |
9.56 /
4.79 |
33.3% /
20.0% |
29.2% /
26.7% |
4.00 /
3.00 |
42 /
77 |
45.5% /
38.5% |
42.9% /
37.7% |
31.0% /
25.9% |
6.38 /
4.44 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
57.1% /
19.5% |
37.67 /
22.55 |
| 4 |
JAX |
24 – 21 W |
-4.43 |
54.5% /
60.0% |
3.0% /
4.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.36 /
8.08 |
45.5% /
53.3% |
18.2% /
13.3% |
3.55 /
4.63 |
55 /
55 |
51.1% /
60.0% |
50.9% /
56.4% |
49.8% /
47.8% |
7.64 /
6.20 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.0% /
54.5% |
17.33 /
27.00 |
| 5 |
GB |
22 – 25 L |
-1.94 |
48.8% /
43.9% |
7.3% /
4.9% |
5.3% /
2.6% |
6.44 /
8.12 |
62.5% /
36.4% |
25.0% /
31.8% |
4.29 /
6.05 |
65 /
63 |
59.6% /
44.0% |
53.8% /
41.3% |
39.1% /
63.3% |
5.65 /
7.40 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.9% /
34.9% |
29.92 /
32.08 |
| 6 |
@DET |
34 – 11 W |
13.06 |
50.0% /
46.5% |
6.3% /
2.3% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
8.00 /
4.47 |
55.6% /
33.3% |
16.7% /
38.9% |
3.94 /
2.00 |
68 /
61 |
52.0% /
45.5% |
52.9% /
42.6% |
49.0% /
13.9% |
5.85 /
3.74 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.9% /
29.5% |
30.36 /
27.00 |
| 7 |
@BLT |
41 – 17 W |
6.48 |
51.3% /
31.9% |
2.6% /
10.6% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
10.49 /
5.91 |
29.2% /
58.3% |
50.0% /
12.5% |
4.63 /
4.79 |
63 /
71 |
46.8% /
47.9% |
42.9% /
40.8% |
69.8% /
54.5% |
8.25 /
5.54 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.1% /
33.8% |
31.46 /
25.69 |
| 8 |
@NYJ |
31 – 34 L |
1.33 |
44.7% /
66.7% |
7.9% /
3.9% |
2.9% /
4.1% |
7.29 /
8.12 |
56.3% /
59.3% |
43.8% /
25.9% |
2.56 /
3.59 |
54 /
78 |
52.4% /
66.7% |
48.1% /
64.1% |
48.6% /
21.4% |
5.89 /
6.55 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
29.6% /
34.6% |
39.67 /
27.50 |
| 9 |
CLV |
16 – 41 L |
-13.53 |
46.8% /
43.5% |
10.6% /
8.7% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
5.60 /
9.04 |
43.5% /
39.1% |
21.7% /
26.1% |
3.70 /
6.65 |
70 /
46 |
54.7% /
43.2% |
45.7% /
41.3% |
13.9% /
74.9% |
4.97 /
7.85 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
32.9% /
50.0% |
26.00 /
42.60 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2021 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
BLT |
33 – 27 W |
-4.68 |
50.8% /
42.4% |
5.1% /
9.1% |
1.8% /
0.0% |
6.93 /
6.58 |
38.1% /
38.2% |
47.6% /
23.5% |
3.90 /
5.56 |
80 /
67 |
50.0% /
43.4% |
47.5% /
40.3% |
48.5% /
59.2% |
6.14 /
6.06 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
26.3% /
50.7% |
31.07 /
25.69 |
| 2 |
@PIT |
26 – 17 W |
3.62 |
59.0% /
47.6% |
5.1% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
9.56 /
6.95 |
40.0% /
35.7% |
32.0% /
35.7% |
2.08 /
2.79 |
64 /
56 |
56.3% /
48.8% |
51.6% /
44.6% |
43.3% /
43.7% |
6.64 /
5.91 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.1% /
25.0% |
26.20 /
21.90 |
| 3 |
MIA |
31 – 28 W |
-0.60 |
45.7% /
43.1% |
6.5% /
3.9% |
2.3% /
0.0% |
7.76 /
3.86 |
48.6% /
44.4% |
22.9% /
22.2% |
4.00 /
4.93 |
81 /
78 |
46.2% /
45.5% |
46.9% /
43.6% |
54.8% /
31.3% |
6.14 /
4.23 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.2% /
34.6% |
24.54 /
26.91 |
| 4 |
@LAC |
14 – 28 L |
-9.59 |
34.2% /
46.3% |
10.5% /
4.9% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
4.34 /
5.17 |
38.9% /
61.8% |
27.8% /
23.5% |
2.67 /
4.94 |
56 /
75 |
39.5% /
58.6% |
35.7% /
53.3% |
33.6% /
35.1% |
3.80 /
5.07 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
32.1% /
45.3% |
24.42 /
33.50 |
| 5 |
CHI |
9 – 20 L |
-5.61 |
42.1% /
47.8% |
7.9% /
8.7% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
4.95 /
4.74 |
54.5% /
45.9% |
27.3% /
37.8% |
3.23 /
3.86 |
60 /
60 |
55.0% /
48.9% |
46.7% /
46.7% |
24.9% /
9.5% |
4.32 /
4.20 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.7% /
61.7% |
21.60 /
29.40 |
| 6 |
@DEN |
34 – 24 W |
9.24 |
48.3% /
48.1% |
6.9% /
9.3% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
11.72 /
5.72 |
52.2% /
52.2% |
17.4% /
21.7% |
3.74 /
4.87 |
52 /
77 |
55.0% /
58.2% |
50.0% /
49.4% |
64.4% /
28.3% |
8.19 /
5.47 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
44.2% /
29.9% |
34.75 /
22.46 |
| 7 |
PHI |
33 – 22 W |
7.22 |
76.5% /
44.4% |
0.0% /
5.6% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
9.50 /
6.19 |
55.2% /
62.5% |
20.7% /
12.5% |
4.10 /
4.22 |
63 /
68 |
71.7% /
53.8% |
66.7% /
52.9% |
36.2% /
41.2% |
7.02 /
5.26 |
0.0% /
2.9% |
46.0% /
47.1% |
39.00 /
23.50 |
| 9 |
@NYG |
16 – 23 L |
-1.71 |
53.2% /
43.5% |
2.1% /
13.0% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
6.09 /
4.17 |
65.0% /
51.6% |
15.0% /
16.1% |
5.85 /
4.81 |
67 /
54 |
62.3% /
50.0% |
56.7% /
48.1% |
43.1% /
34.4% |
6.01 /
4.54 |
1.5% /
1.9% |
29.9% /
57.4% |
25.60 /
31.11 |
| 10 |
KC |
14 – 41 L |
-8.87 |
54.1% /
56.9% |
5.4% /
0.0% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
6.73 /
8.27 |
35.7% /
48.0% |
21.4% /
24.0% |
3.57 /
3.76 |
51 /
76 |
57.5% /
50.0% |
49.0% /
53.9% |
51.4% /
40.7% |
5.86 /
6.79 |
3.9% /
0.0% |
27.5% /
32.9% |
0.00 /
0.00 |
Cincinnati Bengals
@ 
Las Vegas Raiders