Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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JACKSONVILLE (-5) vs Cincinnati

This matchup features two of the best defenses in the league with both Jacksonville and Cincinnati ranking top 3 in yards per play allowed. The Jaguars have the NFL’s best pass defense according to my numbers thanks to their two excellent cornerbacks, Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye. Jacksonville is holding opposing wide receivers to just 5.8 yards per target, best in the NFL, and 3^rd corner Aaron Colvin has been just as effective shutting down slot receivers (just 5.8 YPT allowed). Meanwhile, the Bengals also have a great cornerback in William Jackson. The past two weeks Jackson has held opponents to 3 receiving yards on 7 targets and he’s allowed just 5.3 YPT this season.

Excellent pass defense means we’ll likely see the ground game featured by both offenses. The Jaguars run more than any other team and lead the league in yards per rush (5.0), so facing a good pass defense doesn’t hurt them as much as most teams. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ horrible run game (just 3.2 ypr) should have some success against Jacksonville’s last-ranked rush defense that is allowing 5.3 yards per attempt. This game will likely be won by whichever team can control the line of scrimmage and the team that gets behind by more than 7 points will likely have a tough time catching up trying to throw the ball. I see no value in this game.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bengals
Jaguars

CIN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 34.3 35.4
Succ Pass Plays 42.6% 37.4%
Sack Rate 9.2% 8.1%
Int Rate 3.6% 2.3%
Deep Pass Rate 15.3% 14.9%
Big Pass Yards 39.0% 39.8%
NYPP 6.1 5.5

Rush

Rush Plays 25.6 29.9
RB YPR 3.0 3.5
Stuff Rate 26.7% 23.4%
Succ Rush Plays 34.0% 46.9%
Big Rush Yards 44.6% 28.2%
Yards Per Rush 3.2 3.7

Game

All Snaps 59.9 65.3
Early Down Succ 40.7% 43.6%
Succ Rate 38.5% 41.5%
Big Yards Rate 41.6% 37.0%
Yards Per Play 4.8 4.5
Fumble Lost Rate 1.7% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.4 28.7
Run Ratio 42.4% 45.8%
Starting Field Pos 29.2 29.2
Game Control 0.9 -0.9

Points 17.4 19.3

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	BAL	0 – 20 L	-11.0	30.6% / 27.8%	13.9% / 5.6%	12.9% / 5.9%	4.0 / 6.2	36.4% / 45.2%	22.7% / 19.0%	3.5 / 3.7	58 / 60	34.1% / 39.1%	32.8% / 40.0%	45.7% / 32.1%	3.8 / 4.5	1.7% / 0.0%	37.9% / 70.0%	30.8 / 32.2
2	HOU	9 – 13 L	-1.4	31.6% / 40.7%	7.9% / 11.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.6 / 3.6	54.2% / 51.4%	16.7% / 31.4%	3.4 / 4.8	62 / 62	44.4% / 53.2%	40.3% / 46.8%	41.0% / 39.1%	4.8 / 4.3	1.6% / 0.0%	38.7% / 56.5%	31.2 / 24.1
3	@GB	24 – 27 L	6.6	53.3% / 43.8%	10.0% / 12.5%	0.0% / 2.4%	6.4 / 5.8	32.3% / 47.1%	29.0% / 29.4%	3.6 / 3.8	61 / 65	46.8% / 44.0%	42.6% / 44.6%	31.8% / 58.1%	5.0 / 5.3	1.6% / 0.0%	50.8% / 26.2%	26.5 / 25.8
4	@CLE	31 – 7 W	16.5	60.6% / 29.5%	9.1% / 4.5%	0.0% / 2.4%	8.0 / 3.9	40.0% / 41.2%	26.7% / 35.3%	2.9 / 2.6	63 / 61	50.0% / 32.6%	50.8% / 32.8%	43.4% / 33.0%	5.6 / 3.5	1.6% / 0.0%	47.6% / 27.9%	28.3 / 26.4
5	BUF	20 – 16 W	3.1	43.2% / 32.6%	2.7% / 14.0%	5.6% / 2.7%	8.7 / 3.2	22.6% / 45.8%	22.6% / 20.8%	2.2 / 3.4	68 / 67	37.0% / 38.8%	33.8% / 37.3%	47.7% / 22.2%	5.8 / 3.3	1.5% / 0.0%	45.6% / 35.8%	25.6 / 34.8
7	@PIT	14 – 29 L	-7.2	35.3% / 48.0%	11.8% / 0.0%	6.7% / 0.0%	3.2 / 10.7	22.2% / 37.0%	38.9% / 17.4%	4.0 / 3.4	52 / 71	32.4% / 49.1%	30.8% / 40.8%	35.6% / 56.5%	3.5 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	34.6% / 64.8%	29.1 / 29.4
8	IND	24 – 23 W	-0.5	43.8% / 39.5%	9.4% / 9.3%	0.0% / 2.6%	6.8 / 5.0	30.4% / 60.7%	30.4% / 10.7%	2.6 / 4.1	55 / 71	40.0% / 48.1%	38.2% / 47.9%	46.0% / 18.1%	5.1 / 4.7	3.6% / 0.0%	41.8% / 39.4%	32.7 / 31.4

2017 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@HOU	30 – 7 W	11.9	52.4% / 34.8%	0.0% / 21.7%	0.0% / 2.8%	6.0 / 2.4	41.5% / 60.9%	17.1% / 17.4%	3.8 / 4.0	62 / 69	53.3% / 44.6%	45.2% / 43.5%	32.6% / 12.8%	4.5 / 2.9	0.0% / 4.3%	66.1% / 33.3%	38.2 / 26.5
2	TEN	16 – 37 L	-7.9	41.7% / 42.9%	5.6% / 3.6%	5.9% / 3.7%	5.9 / 7.5	64.0% / 68.4%	12.0% / 10.5%	4.0 / 4.8	61 / 66	52.1% / 64.0%	50.8% / 57.6%	23.5% / 41.6%	5.1 / 5.9	1.6% / 0.0%	41.0% / 57.6%	23.4 / 39.9
3	BAL	44 – 7 W	23.9	54.5% / 24.1%	0.0% / 6.9%	0.0% / 7.4%	7.4 / 1.8	31.6% / 56.0%	10.5% / 20.0%	4.4 / 5.4	71 / 54	48.1% / 42.9%	42.3% / 38.9%	35.8% / 39.2%	5.8 / 3.4	0.0% / 1.9%	53.5% / 46.3%	38.5 / 24.1
4	@NYJ	20 – 23 L	-2.3	30.6% / 44.4%	2.8% / 13.9%	2.9% / 3.2%	3.8 / 6.0	57.5% / 31.3%	20.0% / 43.8%	4.4 / 8.0	76 / 68	50.8% / 37.3%	44.7% / 38.2%	27.6% / 68.6%	4.1 / 6.9	0.0% / 1.5%	52.6% / 47.1%	27.0 / 29.5
5	@PIT	30 – 9 W	4.5	37.5% / 42.9%	12.5% / 3.6%	7.1% / 9.3%	5.1 / 5.4	40.5% / 40.0%	24.3% / 35.0%	6.2 / 3.5	53 / 76	36.6% / 41.0%	39.6% / 42.1%	60.1% / 44.5%	5.9 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	69.8% / 26.3%	26.4 / 21.8
6	LA	17 – 27 L	-5.1	37.5% / 37.5%	12.5% / 12.5%	2.9% / 0.0%	5.5 / 4.5	42.3% / 64.7%	30.8% / 20.6%	6.5 / 4.2	66 / 58	42.0% / 65.9%	39.4% / 53.4%	54.2% / 35.5%	5.9 / 4.3	0.0% / 1.7%	39.4% / 58.6%	25.3 / 30.5
7	@IND	27 – 0 W	18.7	53.6% / 34.0%	3.6% / 21.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	11.8 / 2.9	44.7% / 60.0%	21.1% / 20.0%	5.0 / 4.8	66 / 67	49.0% / 46.9%	48.5% / 41.8%	61.8% / 41.4%	7.9 / 3.5	3.0% / 0.0%	57.6% / 29.9%	20.1 / 28.0

Cincinnati Bengals @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sun, Nov 5

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis