Game Analysis
JACKSONVILLE (-5) vs Cincinnati
This matchup features two of the best defenses in the league with both Jacksonville and Cincinnati ranking top 3 in yards per play allowed. The Jaguars have the NFL’s best pass defense according to my numbers thanks to their two excellent cornerbacks, Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye. Jacksonville is holding opposing wide receivers to just 5.8 yards per target, best in the NFL, and 3rd corner Aaron Colvin has been just as effective shutting down slot receivers (just 5.8 YPT allowed). Meanwhile, the Bengals also have a great cornerback in William Jackson. The past two weeks Jackson has held opponents to 3 receiving yards on 7 targets and he’s allowed just 5.3 YPT this season.
Excellent pass defense means we’ll likely see the ground game featured by both offenses. The Jaguars run more than any other team and lead the league in yards per rush (5.0), so facing a good pass defense doesn’t hurt them as much as most teams. Meanwhile, the Bengals’ horrible run game (just 3.2 ypr) should have some success against Jacksonville’s last-ranked rush defense that is allowing 5.3 yards per attempt. This game will likely be won by whichever team can control the line of scrimmage and the team that gets behind by more than 7 points will likely have a tough time catching up trying to throw the ball. I see no value in this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.3
35.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.6%
37.4%
-
Sack Rate
9.2%
8.1%
-
Int Rate
3.6%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
15.3%
14.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.0%
39.8%
-
NYPP
6.1
5.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.6
29.9
-
RB YPR
3.0
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
26.7%
23.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
34.0%
46.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.6%
28.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.2
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
59.9
65.3
-
Early Down Succ
40.7%
43.6%
-
Succ Rate
38.5%
41.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.6%
37.0%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
4.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.7%
0.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
28.7
-
Run Ratio
42.4%
45.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.2
29.2
-
Game Control
0.9
-0.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.0
38.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.0%
37.2%
-
Sack Rate
5.3%
11.9%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
3.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.6%
20.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
32.7%
37.6%
-
NYPP
6.5
4.3
Rush
-
Rush Plays
35.0
27.4
-
RB YPR
4.6
4.9
-
Stuff Rate
19.4%
23.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.0%
54.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
49.9%
43.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.9
5.0
Game
-
All Snaps
65.0
65.4
-
Early Down Succ
47.4%
48.9%
-
Succ Rate
44.4%
45.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.2%
40.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
4.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.4
27.3
-
Run Ratio
54.3%
42.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.4
28.6
-
Game Control
6.2
-6.2
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
BAL |
0 – 20 L |
-11.0 |
30.6% / 27.8% |
13.9% / 5.6% |
12.9% / 5.9% |
4.0 / 6.2 |
36.4% / 45.2% |
22.7% / 19.0% |
3.5 / 3.7 |
58 / 60 |
34.1% / 39.1% |
32.8% / 40.0% |
45.7% / 32.1% |
3.8 / 4.5 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
37.9% / 70.0% |
30.8 / 32.2 |
2 |
HOU |
9 – 13 L |
-1.4 |
31.6% / 40.7% |
7.9% / 11.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 3.6 |
54.2% / 51.4% |
16.7% / 31.4% |
3.4 / 4.8 |
62 / 62 |
44.4% / 53.2% |
40.3% / 46.8% |
41.0% / 39.1% |
4.8 / 4.3 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
38.7% / 56.5% |
31.2 / 24.1 |
3 |
@GB |
24 – 27 L |
6.6 |
53.3% / 43.8% |
10.0% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
6.4 / 5.8 |
32.3% / 47.1% |
29.0% / 29.4% |
3.6 / 3.8 |
61 / 65 |
46.8% / 44.0% |
42.6% / 44.6% |
31.8% / 58.1% |
5.0 / 5.3 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
50.8% / 26.2% |
26.5 / 25.8 |
4 |
@CLE |
31 – 7 W |
16.5 |
60.6% / 29.5% |
9.1% / 4.5% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
8.0 / 3.9 |
40.0% / 41.2% |
26.7% / 35.3% |
2.9 / 2.6 |
63 / 61 |
50.0% / 32.6% |
50.8% / 32.8% |
43.4% / 33.0% |
5.6 / 3.5 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
47.6% / 27.9% |
28.3 / 26.4 |
5 |
BUF |
20 – 16 W |
3.1 |
43.2% / 32.6% |
2.7% / 14.0% |
5.6% / 2.7% |
8.7 / 3.2 |
22.6% / 45.8% |
22.6% / 20.8% |
2.2 / 3.4 |
68 / 67 |
37.0% / 38.8% |
33.8% / 37.3% |
47.7% / 22.2% |
5.8 / 3.3 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
45.6% / 35.8% |
25.6 / 34.8 |
7 |
@PIT |
14 – 29 L |
-7.2 |
35.3% / 48.0% |
11.8% / 0.0% |
6.7% / 0.0% |
3.2 / 10.7 |
22.2% / 37.0% |
38.9% / 17.4% |
4.0 / 3.4 |
52 / 71 |
32.4% / 49.1% |
30.8% / 40.8% |
35.6% / 56.5% |
3.5 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
34.6% / 64.8% |
29.1 / 29.4 |
8 |
IND |
24 – 23 W |
-0.5 |
43.8% / 39.5% |
9.4% / 9.3% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
6.8 / 5.0 |
30.4% / 60.7% |
30.4% / 10.7% |
2.6 / 4.1 |
55 / 71 |
40.0% / 48.1% |
38.2% / 47.9% |
46.0% / 18.1% |
5.1 / 4.7 |
3.6% / 0.0% |
41.8% / 39.4% |
32.7 / 31.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@HOU |
30 – 7 W |
11.9 |
52.4% / 34.8% |
0.0% / 21.7% |
0.0% / 2.8% |
6.0 / 2.4 |
41.5% / 60.9% |
17.1% / 17.4% |
3.8 / 4.0 |
62 / 69 |
53.3% / 44.6% |
45.2% / 43.5% |
32.6% / 12.8% |
4.5 / 2.9 |
0.0% / 4.3% |
66.1% / 33.3% |
38.2 / 26.5 |
2 |
TEN |
16 – 37 L |
-7.9 |
41.7% / 42.9% |
5.6% / 3.6% |
5.9% / 3.7% |
5.9 / 7.5 |
64.0% / 68.4% |
12.0% / 10.5% |
4.0 / 4.8 |
61 / 66 |
52.1% / 64.0% |
50.8% / 57.6% |
23.5% / 41.6% |
5.1 / 5.9 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
41.0% / 57.6% |
23.4 / 39.9 |
3 |
BAL |
44 – 7 W |
23.9 |
54.5% / 24.1% |
0.0% / 6.9% |
0.0% / 7.4% |
7.4 / 1.8 |
31.6% / 56.0% |
10.5% / 20.0% |
4.4 / 5.4 |
71 / 54 |
48.1% / 42.9% |
42.3% / 38.9% |
35.8% / 39.2% |
5.8 / 3.4 |
0.0% / 1.9% |
53.5% / 46.3% |
38.5 / 24.1 |
4 |
@NYJ |
20 – 23 L |
-2.3 |
30.6% / 44.4% |
2.8% / 13.9% |
2.9% / 3.2% |
3.8 / 6.0 |
57.5% / 31.3% |
20.0% / 43.8% |
4.4 / 8.0 |
76 / 68 |
50.8% / 37.3% |
44.7% / 38.2% |
27.6% / 68.6% |
4.1 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
52.6% / 47.1% |
27.0 / 29.5 |
5 |
@PIT |
30 – 9 W |
4.5 |
37.5% / 42.9% |
12.5% / 3.6% |
7.1% / 9.3% |
5.1 / 5.4 |
40.5% / 40.0% |
24.3% / 35.0% |
6.2 / 3.5 |
53 / 76 |
36.6% / 41.0% |
39.6% / 42.1% |
60.1% / 44.5% |
5.9 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
69.8% / 26.3% |
26.4 / 21.8 |
6 |
LA |
17 – 27 L |
-5.1 |
37.5% / 37.5% |
12.5% / 12.5% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
5.5 / 4.5 |
42.3% / 64.7% |
30.8% / 20.6% |
6.5 / 4.2 |
66 / 58 |
42.0% / 65.9% |
39.4% / 53.4% |
54.2% / 35.5% |
5.9 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
39.4% / 58.6% |
25.3 / 30.5 |
7 |
@IND |
27 – 0 W |
18.7 |
53.6% / 34.0% |
3.6% / 21.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
11.8 / 2.9 |
44.7% / 60.0% |
21.1% / 20.0% |
5.0 / 4.8 |
66 / 67 |
49.0% / 46.9% |
48.5% / 41.8% |
61.8% / 41.4% |
7.9 / 3.5 |
3.0% / 0.0% |
57.6% / 29.9% |
20.1 / 28.0 |