Game Analysis
Lean – INDIANAPOLIS (-2.5) over Cincinnati
Andrew Luck is 43-27 as a starter and he’s had to carry his team to most of the victories (3rd all-time averaging 273 passing yards per game). The Colts made the playoffs in Luck’s first three years in the league before injuries derailed his career and, despite playing 2016 with a torn labrum, the Colts have still never posted a losing season with Luck under center. Yet, Indianapolis has one of the lowest win totals in the league because people are nervous about Luck’s injury risk. Luck played 11 series in the Colts’ first three preseason games with no sign of injuries bothering him and he says his “shoulder feels awesome”. I expect Luck to benefit greatly from analytically-minded former Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich coming in as head coach. Luck has a similar skillset to Carson Wentz and Reich plans to run the same aggressive, up-tempo offense. Indianapolis used first and second round picks on guards to protect their franchise quarterback and improve a ground attack that ranked 25th in our metrics last season. Luck and Reich’s first test will be against a Cincinnati defense without Vontaze Burfict to start the season, as he’s suspended for 4 games. Burfict has missed 29 games in his career and the Bengals are 0.3 yards per play worse without him on the field, which equates to more than a point per game.
Reich brought in Matt Eberflus to coach the Colts’ defense after spending the past seven seasons in Dallas as the linebackers coach. Eberflus will have a tough challenge turning around a secondary that allowed 7.3 yards per pass play in 2017 (31st) and lost its best cornerback from that unit. The good news is the defense should have former first-round safety Malik Hooker available for the full season. Hooker had 3 interceptions in the first 7 games of his career before tearing his ACL and MCL. The pass rush was also a problem, as the Colts finished with just a 4.65% sack rate (29th). Jabaal Sheard’s 5.5 sacks led the Colts in 2017 but he was better than his sack numbers suggest, finishing 13th among edge rushers with 66 quarterback pressures, and Indianapolis also drafted Kemoko Turay in the second round to boost the pass rush.
Cincinnati’s main issue last year was poor offensive line play after parting ways with Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler. The Bengals attempted to remedy the situation by turning the 12th pick in the draft into Cordy Glenn and the 21st pick. Glenn will be a significant upgrade at left tackle as he’s surrendered quarterback pressure on 5% of his career pass blocking snaps, which replaces the 9.2% pressures that Cedric Ogbuehi’s allowed. The Bengals then used the 21st pick to take Billy Price, who won the Rimington Trophy as the nation’s top center.
Tyler Eifert is 2nd among tight ends in Redzone scores since he joined the league, despite playing in less than half of Cincinnati’s games and his health is questionable again going into this season. A.J. Green is now 30 years old, the age wide receivers typically begin to decline, and the rest of quarterback Andy Dalton’s weapons are uninspiring. It’ll be a battle of weakness versus weakness while Cincinnati’s offense and Indianapolis’s defense are on the field, but I’m bullish on the Colts offense and the market doesn’t seem to be factoring in the absence of Burfict. My ratings favor Indy by 5 points and I will lean with Indianapolis -3 or less.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.3
37.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
40.5%
40.2%
-
Sack Rate
7.5%
6.7%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
2.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.0%
16.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.3%
38.3%
-
NYPP
5.7
5.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.7
31.0
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
22.8%
22.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.5%
49.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
37.6%
35.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.5
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
59.0
68.5
-
Early Down Succ
41.9%
45.3%
-
Succ Rate
38.8%
44.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.0%
38.7%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.0
28.8
-
Run Ratio
41.5%
45.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.9
28.8
-
Game Control
-0.6
0.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.7
33.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
39.2%
47.4%
-
Sack Rate
9.8%
4.8%
-
Int Rate
2.0%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.9%
22.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.1%
47.0%
-
NYPP
5.4
7.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.9
31.8
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
22.0%
23.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.1%
38.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
34.5%
41.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
62.6
65.4
-
Early Down Succ
41.3%
43.5%
-
Succ Rate
39.9%
42.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.7%
45.3%
-
Yards Per Play
4.6
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.4
29.1
-
Run Ratio
46.1%
48.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.3
27.0
-
Game Control
-2.1
2.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
BAL |
0 – 20 L |
-11.0 |
30.6% /
27.8% |
13.9% /
5.6% |
12.9% /
5.9% |
4.0 /
6.2 |
36.4% /
45.2% |
22.7% /
19.0% |
3.5 /
3.7 |
58 /
60 |
34.1% /
39.1% |
32.8% /
40.0% |
45.7% /
32.1% |
3.8 /
4.5 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
37.9% /
70.0% |
30.8 /
32.2 |
| 2 |
HOU |
9 – 13 L |
-1.4 |
31.6% /
40.7% |
7.9% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
3.6 |
54.2% /
51.4% |
16.7% /
31.4% |
3.4 /
4.8 |
62 /
62 |
44.4% /
53.2% |
40.3% /
46.8% |
41.0% /
39.1% |
4.8 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
56.5% |
31.2 /
24.1 |
| 3 |
@GB |
24 – 27 L |
6.6 |
53.3% /
43.8% |
10.0% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
6.4 /
5.8 |
32.3% /
47.1% |
29.0% /
29.4% |
3.6 /
3.8 |
61 /
65 |
46.8% /
44.0% |
42.6% /
44.6% |
31.8% /
58.1% |
5.0 /
5.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
26.2% |
26.5 /
25.8 |
| 4 |
@CLE |
31 – 7 W |
16.5 |
60.6% /
29.5% |
9.1% /
4.5% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
8.0 /
3.9 |
40.0% /
41.2% |
26.7% /
35.3% |
2.9 /
2.6 |
63 /
61 |
50.0% /
32.6% |
50.8% /
32.8% |
43.4% /
33.0% |
5.6 /
3.5 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
47.6% /
27.9% |
28.3 /
26.4 |
| 5 |
BUF |
20 – 16 W |
3.1 |
43.2% /
32.6% |
2.7% /
14.0% |
5.6% /
2.7% |
8.7 /
3.2 |
22.6% /
45.8% |
22.6% /
20.8% |
2.2 /
3.4 |
68 /
67 |
37.0% /
38.8% |
33.8% /
37.3% |
47.7% /
22.2% |
5.8 /
3.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
45.6% /
35.8% |
25.6 /
34.8 |
| 7 |
@PIT |
14 – 29 L |
-7.2 |
35.3% /
48.0% |
11.8% /
0.0% |
6.7% /
0.0% |
3.2 /
10.7 |
22.2% /
37.0% |
38.9% /
17.4% |
4.0 /
3.4 |
52 /
71 |
32.4% /
49.1% |
30.8% /
40.8% |
35.6% /
56.5% |
3.5 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.6% /
64.8% |
29.1 /
29.4 |
| 8 |
IND |
24 – 23 W |
-0.5 |
43.8% /
39.5% |
9.4% /
9.3% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
6.8 /
5.0 |
30.4% /
60.7% |
30.4% /
10.7% |
2.6 /
4.1 |
55 /
71 |
40.0% /
48.1% |
38.2% /
47.9% |
46.0% /
18.1% |
5.1 /
4.7 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
41.8% /
39.4% |
32.7 /
31.4 |
| 9 |
@JAC |
7 – 23 L |
-7.2 |
30.0% /
55.3% |
10.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
6.8 |
15.8% /
41.5% |
21.1% /
12.2% |
1.6 /
3.7 |
39 /
79 |
29.6% /
44.1% |
23.1% /
48.1% |
52.7% /
32.8% |
3.8 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
48.7% /
51.9% |
20.2 /
21.1 |
| 10 |
@TEN |
20 – 24 L |
-2.6 |
38.9% /
43.8% |
2.8% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
7.1 /
4.9 |
50.0% /
52.8% |
28.6% /
16.7% |
3.8 /
5.0 |
50 /
84 |
48.7% /
46.4% |
42.0% /
47.6% |
51.0% /
34.6% |
6.2 /
5.0 |
4.0% /
1.2% |
28.0% /
42.9% |
30.9 /
26.1 |
| 11 |
@DEN |
20 – 17 W |
4.4 |
37.0% /
42.2% |
7.4% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
5.2 /
5.1 |
32.1% /
50.0% |
35.7% /
23.5% |
1.8 /
3.3 |
55 /
79 |
33.3% /
41.1% |
34.5% /
45.6% |
30.2% /
15.8% |
3.5 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
50.9% /
43.0% |
33.2 /
31.5 |
| 12 |
CLE |
30 – 16 W |
8.7 |
55.2% /
34.3% |
3.4% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.2 /
6.7 |
50.0% /
54.8% |
21.9% /
25.8% |
4.8 /
5.5 |
61 /
66 |
58.3% /
43.8% |
52.5% /
43.9% |
36.1% /
70.1% |
6.0 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.5% /
47.0% |
33.4 /
23.7 |
| 13 |
PIT |
20 – 23 L |
7.5 |
44.7% /
46.3% |
5.3% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
5.9 /
6.9 |
72.7% /
54.5% |
9.1% /
18.2% |
5.9 /
4.2 |
60 /
63 |
56.5% /
52.0% |
55.0% /
49.2% |
26.1% /
36.9% |
5.9 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.7% /
34.9% |
21.6 /
21.6 |
| 14 |
CHI |
7 – 33 L |
-9.2 |
30.0% /
54.5% |
7.5% /
6.1% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
7.6 |
53.8% /
55.3% |
7.7% /
31.6% |
5.4 /
6.1 |
53 /
71 |
38.5% /
58.6% |
35.8% /
54.9% |
33.3% /
43.6% |
4.4 /
6.8 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
24.5% /
53.5% |
23.5 /
30.9 |
| 15 |
@MIN |
7 – 34 L |
-21.4 |
25.8% /
33.3% |
9.7% /
7.4% |
7.1% /
4.0% |
3.7 /
8.2 |
20.0% /
43.2% |
25.0% /
24.3% |
2.3 /
3.4 |
51 /
64 |
28.6% /
44.7% |
23.5% /
39.1% |
28.0% /
61.9% |
3.2 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.2% /
57.8% |
24.7 /
33.2 |
| 16 |
DET |
26 – 17 W |
-1.2 |
50.0% /
37.8% |
6.8% /
5.4% |
2.4% /
2.9% |
5.0 /
5.1 |
36.1% /
54.5% |
16.7% /
18.2% |
4.0 /
4.0 |
80 /
59 |
45.2% /
45.2% |
43.8% /
44.1% |
33.6% /
42.0% |
4.6 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.0% /
37.3% |
30.8 /
31.0 |
| 17 |
@BAL |
31 – 27 W |
5.6 |
38.6% /
33.3% |
2.3% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
4.8 /
4.0 |
46.9% /
53.8% |
12.5% /
26.9% |
4.6 /
4.5 |
76 /
74 |
46.4% /
43.6% |
42.1% /
40.5% |
41.8% /
22.4% |
4.8 /
4.2 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
42.1% /
35.1% |
23.5 /
38.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@LA |
9 – 46 L |
-21.3 |
28.0% /
54.8% |
16.0% /
3.2% |
9.5% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
10.0 |
32.0% /
22.5% |
28.0% /
22.5% |
3.0 /
1.7 |
50 /
71 |
40.5% /
43.5% |
30.0% /
36.6% |
81.4% /
52.7% |
4.5 /
5.3 |
2.0% /
1.4% |
50.0% /
56.3% |
23.1 /
35.8 |
| 2 |
ARI |
13 – 16 L |
6.3 |
41.5% /
40.0% |
9.8% /
10.0% |
2.7% /
2.8% |
4.6 /
7.7 |
34.5% /
34.6% |
24.1% /
11.5% |
2.6 /
3.2 |
70 /
66 |
36.5% /
39.6% |
38.6% /
37.9% |
16.5% /
63.6% |
3.8 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.4% /
39.4% |
24.5 /
29.6 |
| 3 |
CLE |
31 – 28 W |
9.2 |
33.3% /
35.4% |
11.1% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
6.4% |
9.0 /
4.9 |
27.0% /
57.1% |
37.8% /
19.0% |
2.5 /
5.3 |
64 /
69 |
24.4% /
42.9% |
29.7% /
42.0% |
63.7% /
53.8% |
5.3 /
5.0 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
57.8% /
30.4% |
29.6 /
28.9 |
| 4 |
@SEA |
18 – 46 L |
-7.0 |
37.5% /
65.5% |
9.4% /
10.3% |
3.4% /
7.7% |
4.3 /
9.8 |
52.0% /
42.4% |
8.0% /
24.2% |
3.9 /
5.9 |
57 /
62 |
44.2% /
47.8% |
43.9% /
53.2% |
30.0% /
67.7% |
4.2 /
7.7 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
43.9% /
53.2% |
28.3 /
20.2 |
| 5 |
SF |
26 – 23 W |
3.3 |
44.7% /
50.0% |
10.5% /
4.2% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
7.6 /
7.0 |
32.4% /
31.8% |
32.4% /
31.8% |
4.4 /
3.0 |
75 /
70 |
38.2% /
46.3% |
38.7% /
44.3% |
58.1% /
37.3% |
6.0 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
31.4% |
28.8 /
17.5 |
| 6 |
@TEN |
22 – 36 L |
1.2 |
51.4% /
57.6% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
5.7 /
9.2 |
40.0% /
42.9% |
20.0% /
20.0% |
4.3 /
4.8 |
57 /
68 |
53.2% /
51.9% |
47.4% /
50.0% |
22.6% /
42.2% |
5.2 /
7.0 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
35.1% /
51.5% |
26.5 /
27.4 |
| 7 |
JAC |
0 – 27 L |
-18.7 |
34.0% /
53.6% |
21.3% /
3.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
2.9 /
11.8 |
60.0% /
44.7% |
20.0% /
21.1% |
4.8 /
5.0 |
67 /
66 |
46.9% /
49.0% |
41.8% /
48.5% |
41.4% /
61.8% |
3.5 /
7.9 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
29.9% /
57.6% |
28.0 /
20.1 |
| 8 |
@CIN |
23 – 24 L |
0.5 |
39.5% /
43.8% |
9.3% /
9.4% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
6.8 |
60.7% /
30.4% |
10.7% /
30.4% |
4.1 /
2.6 |
71 /
55 |
48.1% /
40.0% |
47.9% /
38.2% |
18.1% /
46.0% |
4.7 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
39.4% /
41.8% |
31.4 /
32.7 |
| 9 |
@HOU |
20 – 14 W |
6.3 |
45.5% /
28.3% |
9.1% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
4.2 |
44.8% /
38.1% |
20.7% /
14.3% |
3.2 /
4.5 |
62 /
67 |
51.1% /
32.7% |
45.2% /
31.3% |
55.6% /
31.6% |
6.0 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
1.5% |
46.8% /
31.3% |
19.1 /
24.2 |
| 10 |
PIT |
17 – 20 L |
5.1 |
40.7% /
50.0% |
11.1% /
3.1% |
4.2% /
3.2% |
7.3 /
7.1 |
36.7% /
36.7% |
33.3% /
36.7% |
2.4 /
2.9 |
57 /
62 |
40.0% /
44.9% |
38.6% /
43.5% |
45.1% /
38.9% |
4.7 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.6% /
48.4% |
21.6 /
31.7 |
| 12 |
TEN |
16 – 20 L |
0.5 |
37.8% /
48.0% |
21.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
8.0% |
4.5 /
7.4 |
37.5% /
40.0% |
20.8% /
26.7% |
3.7 /
3.1 |
61 /
55 |
36.2% /
48.8% |
37.7% /
43.6% |
28.3% /
35.6% |
4.2 /
5.1 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
39.3% /
54.5% |
29.8 /
31.1 |
| 13 |
@JAC |
10 – 30 L |
-11.5 |
44.7% /
56.8% |
10.5% /
2.7% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
3.9 /
8.9 |
50.0% /
40.7% |
15.4% /
33.3% |
5.4 /
3.6 |
64 /
64 |
46.7% /
45.8% |
46.9% /
50.0% |
39.3% /
39.9% |
4.5 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.6% /
42.2% |
21.3 /
30.9 |
| 14 |
@BUF |
7 – 13 L |
-3.4 |
27.3% /
33.3% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
6.7% |
2.9 /
6.1 |
31.9% /
32.7% |
29.8% /
25.0% |
3.5 /
4.4 |
69 /
67 |
29.8% /
26.7% |
30.4% /
32.8% |
17.5% /
53.4% |
3.3 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
68.1% /
77.6% |
35.8 /
24.7 |
| 15 |
DEN |
13 – 25 L |
0.8 |
45.2% /
48.3% |
3.2% /
10.3% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
5.1 /
8.6 |
34.8% /
40.8% |
17.4% /
18.4% |
3.1 /
4.4 |
54 /
78 |
42.1% /
46.4% |
40.7% /
43.6% |
18.3% /
56.4% |
4.2 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
42.6% /
62.8% |
25.8 /
27.4 |
| 16 |
@BAL |
16 – 23 L |
-5.1 |
45.7% /
51.3% |
5.7% /
2.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
5.6 |
41.7% /
40.0% |
20.8% /
17.1% |
3.9 /
3.0 |
59 /
74 |
45.5% /
50.0% |
44.1% /
45.9% |
36.5% /
20.6% |
5.0 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.7% /
47.3% |
34.3 /
26.3 |
| 17 |
HOU |
22 – 13 W |
0.1 |
30.8% /
42.3% |
3.8% /
7.7% |
0.0% /
4.2% |
4.0 /
4.8 |
41.0% /
40.7% |
12.8% /
29.6% |
3.8 /
3.1 |
65 /
53 |
37.5% /
40.5% |
36.9% /
41.5% |
31.0% /
23.0% |
3.9 /
3.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
60.0% /
50.9% |
28.9 /
24.0 |
Cincinnati Bengals
@ 
Indianapolis Colts