Cincinnati Bengals @

Green Bay Packers

Sun, Sep 24
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 485
Odds: Green Bay Packers -8.5, Total: 46.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Cincinnati (+8.5) over GREEN BAY

I won both my best bets on last week’s Thursday night game – HOU +6.5 and Under 38. One of the reasons for making those plays was Andy Dalton’s inability to make plays under pressure. The Bengals have one of the worst offensive lines in the league this year and Dalton ranked 7th amongst QBs when facing no pressure but ranked just 25th passing while under pressure in 2016, according to Football Outsiders. Last season, the Packers defense ranked better in pressure rate than both Baltimore and Houston, Dalton’s first two opponents, and Dom Capers is a master at disguising his blitzes.

 

My model has Green Bay’s expected point differential at +10 after two games against top NFC competition. However, the Packers have actually had a negative point differential thus far, which would usually be a flag for some value – but the market has virtually no confidence left in Andy Dalton and the spread on this game is actually a bit higher than it should be.

 

While I don’t like the match-up for Cincinnati, I do lean with the Bengals on the basis of a 53-17-3 ATS week 3 contrary indicator that is based on the Bengals’ poor performance to date.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bengals
  • Packers
CIN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.0 22.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 31.1% 34.3%
  • Sack Rate 10.9% 8.3%
  • Int Rate 6.5% 2.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 20.0% 7.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 48.5% 34.4%
  • NYPP 4.8 4.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 23.0 38.5
  • RB YPR 3.5 3.7
  • Stuff Rate 19.7% 25.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 45.3% 48.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 30.0% 35.6%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.5 4.3




Game

  • All Snaps 60.0 61.0
  • Early Down Succ 39.3% 46.2%
  • Succ Rate 36.5% 43.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 43.4% 35.6%
  • Yards Per Play 4.3 4.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.7% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.0 32.5
  • Run Ratio 38.3% 63.2%
  • Starting Field Pos 31.0 28.1
  • Game Control -6.2 6.2
 
  • Points 4.5 16.5
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