Game Analysis
Lean – Cincinnati (+8.5) over GREEN BAY
I won both my best bets on last week’s Thursday night game – HOU +6.5 and Under 38. One of the reasons for making those plays was Andy Dalton’s inability to make plays under pressure. The Bengals have one of the worst offensive lines in the league this year and Dalton ranked 7th amongst QBs when facing no pressure but ranked just 25th passing while under pressure in 2016, according to Football Outsiders. Last season, the Packers defense ranked better in pressure rate than both Baltimore and Houston, Dalton’s first two opponents, and Dom Capers is a master at disguising his blitzes.
My model has Green Bay’s expected point differential at +10 after two games against top NFC competition. However, the Packers have actually had a negative point differential thus far, which would usually be a flag for some value – but the market has virtually no confidence left in Andy Dalton and the spread on this game is actually a bit higher than it should be.
While I don’t like the match-up for Cincinnati, I do lean with the Bengals on the basis of a 53-17-3 ATS week 3 contrary indicator that is based on the Bengals’ poor performance to date.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.0
22.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
31.1%
34.3%
-
Sack Rate
10.9%
8.3%
-
Int Rate
6.5%
2.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.0%
7.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
48.5%
34.4%
-
NYPP
4.8
4.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.0
38.5
-
RB YPR
3.5
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
19.7%
25.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.3%
48.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
30.0%
35.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.5
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
60.0
61.0
-
Early Down Succ
39.3%
46.2%
-
Succ Rate
36.5%
43.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.4%
35.6%
-
Yards Per Play
4.3
4.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.7%
0.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.0
32.5
-
Run Ratio
38.3%
63.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.0
28.1
-
Game Control
-6.2
6.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
49.5
30.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
50.5%
45.8%
-
Sack Rate
7.2%
9.8%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
11.2%
25.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
35.2%
52.1%
-
NYPP
6.0
5.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.5
22.5
-
RB YPR
2.9
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
22.2%
34.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.9%
47.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
15.8%
57.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.3
5.1
Game
-
All Snaps
73.0
53.0
-
Early Down Succ
49.2%
49.9%
-
Succ Rate
48.2%
46.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
31.0%
54.3%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.9
27.9
-
Run Ratio
31.7%
42.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
24.0
27.1
-
Game Control
-5.0
5.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
BAL |
0 – 20 L |
-11.0 |
30.6% / 27.8% |
13.9% / 5.6% |
12.9% / 5.9% |
4.0 / 6.2 |
36.4% / 45.2% |
22.7% / 19.0% |
3.5 / 3.7 |
58 / 60 |
34.1% / 39.1% |
32.8% / 40.0% |
45.7% / 32.1% |
3.8 / 4.5 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
37.9% / 70.0% |
30.8 / 32.2 |
2 |
HOU |
9 – 13 L |
-1.4 |
31.6% / 40.7% |
7.9% / 11.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.6 / 3.6 |
54.2% / 51.4% |
16.7% / 31.4% |
3.4 / 4.8 |
62 / 62 |
44.4% / 53.2% |
40.3% / 46.8% |
41.0% / 39.1% |
4.8 / 4.3 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
38.7% / 56.5% |
31.2 / 24.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
SEA |
17 – 9 W |
2.5 |
50.0% / 40.0% |
8.7% / 10.0% |
2.4% / 0.0% |
6.2 / 4.5 |
35.5% / 38.9% |
19.4% / 50.0% |
2.8 / 5.0 |
77 / 48 |
44.6% / 44.4% |
44.2% / 39.6% |
37.8% / 58.7% |
4.8 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 2.1% |
40.3% / 37.5% |
25.9 / 27.5 |
2 |
@ATL |
23 – 34 L |
-12.4 |
50.9% / 51.6% |
5.7% / 9.7% |
2.0% / 0.0% |
5.8 / 7.2 |
56.3% / 55.6% |
25.0% / 18.5% |
3.8 / 5.2 |
69 / 58 |
53.8% / 55.3% |
52.2% / 53.4% |
24.2% / 50.0% |
5.3 / 6.3 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
23.2% / 46.6% |
22.1 / 26.7 |