Game Analysis

1-Star Best Bet – *Cincinnati Team Total Under (27.5 -110)

Lean – DALLAS (+5.5/+5) over Cincinnati

• Joe Burrow will be bombarded on Monday night by an improved Dallas defense. The Cowboys had 6 sacks on Thanksgiving and 21 pressures on Drew Lock.
• Dallas edge defender Micah Parsons ranks 3rd in pass-rushing efficiency and he will be a frequent guest in the backfield while lined up across from rookie RT Amarius Mims, who is surrendering 2.6 pressures per game (8th-most).
• Cincinnati left tackle Orlando Brown is conceding a 4.2% pressure rate, but he will be sidelined this week and backup Cody Ford is surrendering a 10% pressure rate.
• Cowboys’ interior defender Osa Odighizuwa ranks 10th in pass rushing efficiency and he has a favorable matchup across from RG Alex Cappa, who has surrendered 29 pressures ranking 56th out of 59 qualifying guards.
• It is possible this is the first time all season that Dallas will deploy their top cornerback trio featuring Trevon Diggs, DaRon Bland, and Jourdan Lewis. Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy said of Diggs. “If everything goes according to that plan, he’ll definitely have an opportunity to go on Monday Night.”
• Meanwhile, the Bengals are without starting cornerback Dax Hill and his backup DJ Turner, who is conceding 0.77 yards per cover snap. Cincinnati third-string CB Josh Newton is surrendering 1.27 yards per cover snap.
• Bengals’ LB Logan Wilson is out and Cincinnati’s defense is allowing 0.48 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (29th). The Bengals will struggle with TE Jake Ferguson, who is averaging 1.38 yards per route run (9th) and will be back on the field this week after missing two games.
• Cooper Rush will need to get the ball out quickly to Ferguson as Dallas will likely not have two starters on the offensive line available. Backup LT Chuma Edoga will struggle across from Cincinnati edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, whose 59 pressures rank 2nd.
• Our model favors the Bengals by just 1.3 points, with a predicted total of 43.9 points.
• There is value on both Dallas and the Under and the matchups favor the Cowboys’ defense, which is why the Bengals Team Total under is the way we’re going to play this.

The Cincinnati Team Total Under (27.5) is a 1-Star Best Bet at 27 or more. The alternate play, if you don’t have Team Totals, is Dallas +5.5 at +5 or more.