Game Analysis

Lean – CLEVELAND (+2.5) over Cincinnati

· Deshaun Watson averaged just 5.2 yppp in 6 starts last year but two of those were among the worst weather games all last season and Watson has gained 6.9 yppp throughout his career. In fact, Watson’s 50.5% career success rate ranks 7th in the NFL since 2017. We also think Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski is an above average play caller. Stefanski got Baker Mayfield to 9th in EPA/play in 2020 and career backup QB Brissett was 11th in EPA/play last year when Watson was out.

· The Browns were a borderline top 10 offense in market when they made the Divisional Round in 2020 and coming into the 2021 season. This version of Stefanski’s offense is clearly more talented with Watson, WR Amari Cooper, and the addition of WR Elijah Moore, who had 8 receptions on passes with 20+ air yards his rookie season which ranked 18th.

· Cleveland’s defense has had around league-average talent for years but constantly underachieved with coordinator Joe Woods. I do not think Jim Schwartz is some defensive play-calling savant, but he is an upgrade. Schwartz will also get to work with a lot more talent after an offseason of excellent signings.

· This Browns defensive line is nasty this season – a flip from what they’ve had surrounding star edge rusher Myles Garrett his whole career. Ogbonnia Okoronkwo came over from Houston and the edge defender had more pressures than Jadeveon Clowney on fewer pass-rushing snaps last season. Cleveland also signed edge defender Za’Darius Smith, who ranked 6th in the NFL in pass-rushing efficiency in 2022.

· There is no doubt Schwartz has built a knack for interior defenders. His resume includes Albert Haynesworth in Tennessee, Ndamukong Suh in Detroit, and Fletcher Cox during his time in Philadelphia. The Browns brought in DT Dalvin Tomlinson, who ranked 8th in PFF pass-rushing grade last season. Fellow new addition DT Shelby Harris had an 8.8% win rate, ranking 29th among interior defenders. Last year, Cleveland’s starting DTs Taven Bryan and Jordan Elliott ranked 10th-worst and 7th-worst respectively among qualifiers in win rate and the Browns will be much tougher in the middle of the line this season.

· Cleveland’s defense also brings over safety Juan Thornhill from Kansas City and starting LB Anthony Walker is back in the mix after tearing his quad last September.

· Cincinnati’s offense is going to be among the best in the NFL, but the major storyline this offseason was on the defense losing both starting safeties. Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell led the team in cover snaps last season and the Bengals finished 3rd in dropback success rate allowed.

· However, Cincinnati’s top CB Chidobe Awuzie had a season-ending knee injury and took less than 300 cover snaps in 2022. Awuzie ranked 3rd in PFF coverage grade in 2021 and his return should help make up for the loss of both safeties. The Bengals also have Mike Hilton at nickelback, who ranked 3rd in yards conceded per cover snap in the slot last year.

· Going into last season, Joe Burrow talked about how his team was going to see a lot more quarters and they adapted the offense well. Burrow finished 7th in EPA/play against two-high coverages and 8th versus single-high looks. I expect Schwartz to give Burrow some Cover 1 which could allow the Bengals wide receivers to get loose in the secondary, especially if starting Cleveland CB Denzel Ward is not cleared from concussion protocol. Ward is worth 0.8 points according to our numbers.

· Cincinnati’s wide receivers remain elite with everyone back from last season. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins both finished in the top 20 in yards per route run last season while Tyler Boyd’s 50 receptions in the slot ranked 5th in the NFL.

· Our model favors the Browns by 0.2 points, with a predicted total of 46.7 points.