Game Analysis
Lean – Cincinnati (+10) over CLEVELAND
Lean – Under (44.5)
The Bengals gained just 4.5 yards per play in Jeff Driskel’s first two starts as the backup quarterback was dealt a bad hand. Cincinnati played without their top two pass-catchers in A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert and Driskel’s misfortune may take a turn for the worse with remaining top target WR Tyler Boyd looking like he will also miss this game. Boyd is one of 4 receivers gaining 2 yards per route run in the slot and his absence will be the last straw for the Bengals passing attack as all of their remaining wide receivers are gaining less than 1 yard per route run. Joe Mixon will be expected to continue doing the heavy lifting on offense after seeing 63 opportunities the past 2 weeks. Cleveland’s rush defense ranks 18th and the Browns allow 7.0 yards per target to opposing running backs (26th) so it’s reasonable to believe Mixon might find success, but runs and check-downs lead to overall lower scoring because they keep the clock moving.
The Browns offense is gaining 6.8 yards per play with Freddie Kitchens at offensive coordinator, compared to 4.9 yards per play prior to week 9. Nick Chubb has been excellent since taking over as the starting running back, averaging a league-high 4.53 yards per rush after contact, and I expect Cleveland to pound the rock in this game versus a Bengals rush defense ranked 30th after dealing with numerous linebacker injuries all season. Geno Atkins has 61 pressures this year (4th), but Browns guards Kevin Zeitler and Joel Bitonio are both playing at a Pro Bowl-level and Atkins likely won’t make his usual impact on the interior.
I think both teams will lean on the ground game and our model favors Cleveland by 9.4 points with a predicted total of 42.0. While there isn’t really any value on the side, this game applies to a number of situations that favor the Bengals, including a 74-22-2 ATS division revenge situation and a 59-127-3 ATS home favorite letdown situation that applies to Cleveland. Cleveland was also eliminated from playoff contention yesterday, which might be a bit deflating. I’ll lean with Cincinnati plus the points based on the situation. This game also applies to a 711-513-6 Under situation and our math leans under so I’ll lean with the Under.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.9
36.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.8%
54.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
2.8%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.7%
19.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.3%
40.8%
-
NYPP
6.2
7.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.0
30.6
-
RB YPR
4.4
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
24.2%
18.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
47.2%
49.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
54.1%
41.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.6
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
59.9
67.3
-
Early Down Succ
48.8%
52.7%
-
Succ Rate
47.2%
52.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
47.0%
43.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
6.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.1
29.2
-
Run Ratio
38.2%
45.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.2
29.0
-
Game Control
-3.9
3.9
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.4
41.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.6%
51.8%
-
Sack Rate
7.0%
5.6%
-
Int Rate
2.8%
3.1%
-
Deep Pass Rate
25.4%
16.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.1%
33.6%
-
NYPP
6.9
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.0
28.3
-
RB YPR
4.3
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
28.0%
26.8%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.8%
48.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
54.7%
54.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.4
Game
-
All Snaps
63.4
69.9
-
Early Down Succ
47.2%
52.9%
-
Succ Rate
44.7%
51.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
48.8%
39.9%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.5
28.6
-
Run Ratio
42.6%
40.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.8
28.8
-
Game Control
-2.1
2.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@IND |
34 – 23 W |
-3.1 |
60.0% /
56.4% |
6.7% /
3.6% |
3.6% /
1.9% |
7.6 /
5.5 |
65.0% /
54.5% |
20.0% /
22.7% |
5.1 /
3.4 |
50 /
77 |
64.3% /
53.3% |
62.0% /
55.8% |
38.8% /
10.0% |
6.6 /
4.9 |
2.0% /
1.3% |
40.0% /
28.6% |
26.2 /
33.4 |
| 2 |
BAL |
34 – 23 W |
11.8 |
45.2% /
49.1% |
0.0% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
6.3 /
6.3 |
42.9% /
50.0% |
28.6% /
18.2% |
3.9 /
3.0 |
70 /
79 |
45.6% /
50.0% |
44.3% /
49.4% |
43.7% /
35.5% |
5.3 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
40.0% /
27.8% |
36.3 /
22.6 |
| 3 |
@CAR |
21 – 31 L |
-4.5 |
53.2% /
40.0% |
4.3% /
4.0% |
8.9% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
5.9 |
53.8% /
47.6% |
23.1% /
21.4% |
5.1 /
5.5 |
60 /
67 |
56.0% /
46.2% |
53.3% /
44.8% |
58.1% /
54.8% |
6.6 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
21.7% /
62.7% |
23.5 /
30.5 |
| 4 |
@ATL |
37 – 36 W |
0.5 |
52.3% /
61.9% |
6.8% /
7.1% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
9.6 |
56.5% /
45.8% |
8.7% /
12.5% |
4.3 /
3.8 |
67 /
66 |
50.9% /
52.0% |
53.7% /
56.1% |
33.4% /
37.2% |
6.1 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.3% /
36.4% |
33.0 /
32.4 |
| 5 |
MIA |
27 – 17 W |
-4.6 |
68.2% /
77.3% |
9.1% /
13.6% |
5.0% /
10.5% |
10.4 /
7.7 |
29.6% /
45.5% |
25.9% /
13.6% |
3.9 /
5.8 |
49 /
44 |
45.7% /
48.9% |
46.9% /
61.4% |
52.9% /
25.3% |
6.8 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
2.3% |
55.1% /
50.0% |
22.9 /
25.5 |
| 6 |
PIT |
21 – 28 L |
-0.7 |
53.3% /
50.0% |
6.7% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
8.0 |
46.2% /
40.9% |
30.8% /
22.7% |
4.8 /
5.1 |
58 /
68 |
52.2% /
46.2% |
51.7% /
47.1% |
25.1% /
60.2% |
4.7 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
22.4% /
32.4% |
30.7 /
19.8 |
| 7 |
@KC |
10 – 45 L |
-19.4 |
42.9% /
61.0% |
5.7% /
4.9% |
3.0% /
2.6% |
5.0 /
8.6 |
47.4% /
51.7% |
26.3% /
10.3% |
3.4 /
6.8 |
54 /
70 |
47.6% /
54.4% |
44.4% /
57.1% |
42.3% /
52.5% |
4.4 /
7.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.2% /
41.4% |
26.6 /
24.0 |
| 8 |
TB |
37 – 34 W |
10.5 |
48.6% /
41.1% |
5.7% /
10.7% |
0.0% /
8.0% |
7.5 /
8.0 |
42.9% /
51.9% |
28.6% /
11.1% |
5.0 /
4.7 |
63 /
83 |
50.0% /
39.7% |
46.0% /
44.6% |
54.6% /
49.0% |
6.4 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
44.4% /
32.5% |
29.5 /
24.5 |
| 10 |
NO |
14 – 51 L |
-21.4 |
46.2% /
70.4% |
15.4% /
0.0% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
9.8 |
62.5% /
64.0% |
6.3% /
10.0% |
6.9 /
4.9 |
42 /
77 |
61.8% /
72.9% |
52.4% /
66.2% |
61.3% /
45.3% |
6.8 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.1% /
64.9% |
25.9 /
38.8 |
| 11 |
@BAL |
21 – 24 L |
-1.3 |
39.5% /
52.4% |
2.6% /
9.5% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
5.4 /
6.6 |
37.5% /
47.4% |
31.3% /
15.8% |
3.0 /
4.7 |
54 /
78 |
38.5% /
53.6% |
38.9% /
48.7% |
56.5% /
33.7% |
4.7 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
29.6% /
73.1% |
31.5 /
31.6 |
| 12 |
CLE |
20 – 35 L |
-17.6 |
48.9% /
69.2% |
2.1% /
0.0% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
9.9 |
55.0% /
47.2% |
25.0% /
27.8% |
6.5 /
2.4 |
67 /
62 |
54.9% /
60.4% |
50.7% /
56.5% |
40.1% /
51.2% |
5.6 /
5.5 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
29.9% /
58.1% |
27.0 /
33.8 |
| 13 |
DEN |
10 – 24 L |
-6.2 |
38.1% /
43.5% |
9.5% /
8.7% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
6.2 |
43.5% /
60.0% |
34.8% /
17.1% |
4.8 /
6.3 |
65 /
58 |
42.0% /
60.5% |
40.0% /
53.4% |
57.6% /
61.0% |
4.8 /
6.2 |
3.1% /
1.7% |
35.4% /
60.3% |
22.7 /
32.7 |
| 14 |
@LAC |
21 – 26 L |
-6.9 |
46.7% /
51.6% |
10.0% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
6.5 |
43.8% /
48.0% |
21.9% /
20.0% |
4.5 /
3.4 |
62 /
56 |
47.9% /
52.4% |
45.2% /
50.0% |
36.6% /
31.6% |
4.8 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
51.6% /
44.6% |
34.7 /
27.3 |
| 15 |
OAK |
30 – 16 W |
8.9 |
26.5% /
41.5% |
2.9% /
12.2% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
3.6 /
5.6 |
34.1% /
43.8% |
27.3% /
31.3% |
4.0 /
4.3 |
78 /
57 |
25.5% /
47.7% |
30.8% /
42.1% |
57.6% /
54.2% |
3.8 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
3.5% |
56.4% /
28.1% |
37.8 /
28.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
PIT |
21 – 21 T |
-6.0 |
21.7% /
40.0% |
15.2% /
8.9% |
2.6% /
7.3% |
3.3 /
7.0 |
39.5% /
44.4% |
34.2% /
19.4% |
4.7 /
4.4 |
84 /
81 |
30.8% /
42.2% |
29.8% /
42.0% |
64.5% /
48.4% |
3.9 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
3.7% |
45.2% /
44.4% |
34.4 /
23.9 |
| 2 |
@NO |
18 – 21 L |
2.8 |
48.5% /
63.2% |
9.1% /
7.9% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
5.6 |
33.3% /
37.5% |
14.8% /
25.0% |
3.4 /
2.6 |
60 /
62 |
43.5% /
60.4% |
41.7% /
53.2% |
43.4% /
30.8% |
5.5 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
45.0% /
38.7% |
28.4 /
35.0 |
| 3 |
NYJ |
21 – 17 W |
-5.4 |
36.6% /
36.4% |
9.8% /
6.1% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
4.6 /
4.9 |
42.9% /
50.0% |
31.4% /
43.3% |
3.9 /
3.6 |
76 /
63 |
42.6% /
42.6% |
39.5% /
42.9% |
32.3% /
22.4% |
4.3 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
46.1% /
47.6% |
33.3 /
23.2 |
| 4 |
@OAK |
42 – 45 L |
2.1 |
37.2% /
53.3% |
4.7% /
5.0% |
4.9% /
3.5% |
6.5 /
7.1 |
43.8% /
33.3% |
21.9% /
36.7% |
6.5 /
4.7 |
75 /
90 |
42.1% /
52.1% |
40.0% /
46.7% |
57.8% /
44.2% |
6.5 /
6.3 |
2.7% /
0.0% |
42.7% /
33.3% |
26.1 /
34.9 |
| 5 |
BAL |
12 – 9 W |
0.7 |
62.1% /
80.6% |
17.2% /
6.5% |
4.2% /
3.4% |
10.5 /
9.5 |
46.4% /
48.0% |
35.7% /
32.0% |
4.0 /
4.6 |
57 /
56 |
45.5% /
47.8% |
54.4% /
66.1% |
57.7% /
35.1% |
7.3 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
49.1% /
44.6% |
19.7 /
31.4 |
| 6 |
LAC |
14 – 38 L |
-14.7 |
39.2% /
45.5% |
9.8% /
4.5% |
4.3% /
4.8% |
4.2 /
9.2 |
42.9% /
63.2% |
33.3% /
13.2% |
4.9 /
6.5 |
72 /
60 |
41.5% /
68.8% |
40.3% /
56.7% |
50.2% /
69.2% |
4.4 /
7.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
29.2% /
63.3% |
34.2 /
30.5 |
| 7 |
@TB |
23 – 26 L |
-6.5 |
38.5% /
51.8% |
12.8% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
4.8 /
6.1 |
39.1% /
42.4% |
30.4% /
30.3% |
5.2 /
3.5 |
62 /
89 |
45.7% /
49.3% |
38.7% /
48.3% |
41.0% /
35.4% |
4.9 /
5.1 |
1.6% /
2.2% |
37.1% /
37.1% |
37.6 /
21.3 |
| 8 |
@PIT |
18 – 33 L |
-5.4 |
36.8% /
51.4% |
5.3% /
2.7% |
2.8% /
2.8% |
4.3 /
6.8 |
38.1% /
59.4% |
38.1% /
12.5% |
3.5 /
5.3 |
59 /
69 |
40.0% /
58.5% |
37.3% /
55.1% |
55.3% /
39.8% |
4.0 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
35.6% /
46.4% |
30.2 /
27.8 |
| 9 |
KC |
21 – 37 L |
-10.7 |
46.7% /
63.6% |
4.4% /
6.1% |
2.3% /
3.2% |
6.4 /
10.9 |
56.0% /
58.3% |
24.0% /
29.2% |
4.1 /
5.8 |
70 /
57 |
51.9% /
61.7% |
50.0% /
61.4% |
26.0% /
62.1% |
5.5 /
8.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
35.7% /
42.1% |
21.8 /
33.3 |
| 10 |
ATL |
28 – 16 W |
8.8 |
71.4% /
54.7% |
0.0% /
3.8% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
10.3 /
5.9 |
45.2% /
47.4% |
19.4% /
36.8% |
6.9 /
3.7 |
52 /
72 |
62.5% /
57.4% |
55.8% /
52.8% |
45.7% /
36.1% |
8.3 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
2.8% |
59.6% /
26.4% |
23.6 /
27.3 |
| 12 |
@CIN |
35 – 20 W |
17.6 |
69.2% /
48.9% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
9.9 /
5.2 |
47.2% /
55.0% |
27.8% /
25.0% |
2.4 /
6.5 |
62 /
67 |
60.4% /
54.9% |
56.5% /
50.7% |
51.2% /
40.1% |
5.5 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
58.1% /
29.9% |
33.8 /
27.0 |
| 13 |
@HOU |
13 – 29 L |
-14.2 |
58.5% /
45.7% |
0.0% /
11.4% |
7.3% /
0.0% |
9.7 /
5.6 |
55.6% /
47.5% |
33.3% /
7.5% |
3.4 /
4.7 |
50 /
75 |
63.4% /
47.4% |
58.0% /
46.7% |
52.6% /
37.1% |
8.6 /
5.1 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
18.0% /
53.3% |
19.9 /
29.5 |
| 14 |
CAR |
26 – 20 W |
-0.4 |
37.5% /
40.9% |
4.2% /
2.3% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
9.7 /
6.8 |
34.8% /
56.0% |
30.4% /
24.0% |
5.1 /
3.8 |
47 /
69 |
38.2% /
48.1% |
36.2% /
46.4% |
68.0% /
45.3% |
7.4 /
5.7 |
4.3% /
0.0% |
48.9% /
36.2% |
25.2 /
37.3 |
| 15 |
@DEN |
17 – 16 W |
1.2 |
48.5% /
49.0% |
6.1% /
4.1% |
3.2% /
4.3% |
5.3 /
4.9 |
48.3% /
40.0% |
17.2% /
40.0% |
4.7 /
1.7 |
62 /
69 |
52.2% /
50.0% |
48.4% /
46.4% |
38.1% /
12.9% |
5.0 /
3.9 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
46.8% /
29.0% |
34.8 /
20.2 |
Cincinnati Bengals
@ 
Cleveland Browns