Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Cincinnati (-4) over CAROLINA

• Only 2% of teams in the Super Bowl era have started 0-3 and made the playoffs but I think the Bengals can buck the trend. We have an extra game as well as an extra playoff spot and Cincinnati is a top 10 team by our metrics with a below average remaining strength of schedule.
• Andy Dalton’s 5 completions with 10+ air yards last week were as many as Bryce Young had in the first two games and Dalton’s 0.34 EPA/play was higher than any start in Young’s career. The Panthers clearly made the right decision at quarterback, and we took advantage last week with Best Bets on Carolina and Over in their game with the Raiders. However, I think the market has adjusted too far.
• Dalton had a league-low 2.01 second time to throw average last week but he won’t be able to get the ball out as quickly without underneath target WR Adam Thielen, who is worth 0.4 points by our numbers.
• Carolina’s offense will likely be missing LG Damien Lewis, who ranks 2nd in pass blocking efficiency.
• Panthers’ RB Chuba Hubbard is averaging 1.52 yards per route run (9th) but the screen game will be shut down as Cincinnati’s defense is conceding -0.28 EPA/target to running backs (6th).
• Joe Burrow’s offense averaged 0.43 EPA/play in week 3 (2nd) with WR Tee Higgins on the field for his first game of the season.
• Either Higgins or Pro Bowl WR Ja’Marr Chase will line up with a favorable matchup on every snap across from Carolina CB Mike Jackson, who is surrendering a league-high 2.24 yards per cover snap.
• Our model favors the Bengals by 6.4 points, with a predicted total of 45.6 points.

Cincinnati is a Strong Opinion at -5 or less.