Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Over (44) – Cincinnati at BALTIMORE

Strong Opinion – Cincinnati (+4)

· Joe Burrow gutted through a right calf strain in the early part of the season, but he is averaging 0.26 EPA/play since the bye week (7th) and he won’t slow down on Thursday night with the Ravens missing a significant piece in the secondary.

· Baltimore CB Marlon Humphrey consistently takes care of his assignment, as the Pro Bowler is conceding a reception every 19.9 cover snaps (4th), but he is out with a calf strain. Cincinnati WR Ja’Marr Chase has a 62% success rate (5th) and a favorable matchup versus backup cornerback Rock Ya-Sin.

· Bengals RT Jonah Williams’ 6.0% pressure rate allowed is his lowest since 2020 and he will limit Ravens edge defender Jadeveon Clowney, who ranks 7th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Baltimore’s offense is predicated on a good ground game, which sets up their play-action pass game. The Ravens lead the NFL with 0.05 EPA/rush and Cincinnati has the 30th-rated rush defense by our metrics, so the Ravens’ offense should function well.

· Bengals interior defender DJ Reader ranks 12th in pass-rushing efficiency but LG John Simpson is one of 8 qualifying guards to have not conceded a sack this year and Lamar Jackson will have clean pockets to throw downfield.

· Ravens TE Mark Andrews is averaging 0.55 EPA/target (2nd) and he will be open deep as Cincinnati’s defense is surrendering a 62% success rate to tight ends (29th).

· Baltimore right tackle Morgan Moses will be back on the field this week, which Daniel Faalele, who has surrendered 2 sacks in 38 pass-blocking snaps. However, Ravens LT Ronnie Stanley is out, leaving backup Patrick Mekari to line up across from edge defender Trey Hendrickson, who ranks 2nd pass rushing efficiency.

· Our model favors the Ravens by 3.1 points, with a predicted total of 51.8 points, and Cincinnati is now 12-0-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 points or more the last 3 seasons (9-4 straight up).

The Over is a 2-Star Best Bet at 45.5 or less and 1-Star to 46.5 points (Strong Opinion at 47). Cincinnati is a Strong Opinion at +3.5 or more.