Game Analysis
Before the bye, the Bears came out of hibernation for the Monday Night matchup as a re-lit Smokin’ Jay Cutler led the Bears to an upset win and only 3 games back of Minnesota at (2-6). Tampa Bay is playing its third straight home game after a Thursday night thrashing at the hands of the high-flying Falcons. While the momentum and traditional statistics point to a Bears team that should be able to handle the struggling Bucs team, a closer inspection shows a different story. The Bucs actually rank 13th in offensive success rate when adjusted for defense and should have some success with Mighty Mouse Martin back at RB for the Bucs. Conversely, the Bucs defense has had the misfortune of playing high-powered offenses, including the Falcons twice, and they rank a below average 21st in success rate allowed, but better than their 7.4 NYPP would indicate. The advanced stats model sees value on the home team, so Buccaneers (-1) is a Strong Opinion. Lean to UNDER (46).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.4
38.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.7%
51.2%
-
Sack Rate
5.5%
6.6%
-
Int Rate
2.4%
1.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.6%
17.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.4%
36.3%
-
NYPP
6.5
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
22.2
27.9
-
RB YPR
4.8
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
29.7%
21.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.3%
39.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
54.8%
35.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
3.5
Game
-
All Snaps
59.7
66.8
-
Early Down Succ
50.9%
49.9%
-
Succ Rate
46.0%
46.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.1%
36.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.4%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.5
29.2
-
Run Ratio
37.3%
41.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
24.5
28.9
-
Game Control
-1.7
1.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.6
37.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.0%
47.9%
-
Sack Rate
6.3%
6.2%
-
Int Rate
2.7%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.8%
21.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
29.5%
47.5%
-
NYPP
6.2
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.0
28.2
-
RB YPR
3.5
4.1
-
Stuff Rate
23.3%
22.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.4%
47.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
28.9%
41.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
4.3
Game
-
All Snaps
70.6
65.7
-
Early Down Succ
47.5%
51.5%
-
Succ Rate
45.1%
47.7%
-
Big Yards Rate
29.8%
47.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.7
27.5
-
Run Ratio
41.5%
43.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.5
29.3
-
Game Control
-1.6
1.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@HOU |
14 – 23 L |
0.5 |
38.2% /
45.9% |
14.7% /
5.4% |
3.4% /
2.9% |
5.4 /
5.8 |
60.0% /
37.8% |
30.0% /
16.2% |
3.7 /
3.5 |
54 /
74 |
53.8% /
38.0% |
46.3% /
41.9% |
42.6% /
41.3% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.0% /
50.0% |
25.1 /
33.0 |
| 2 |
PHI |
14 – 29 L |
-5.1 |
53.1% /
48.6% |
9.4% /
5.7% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
5.1 |
61.1% /
28.9% |
27.8% /
26.3% |
3.6 /
2.7 |
50 /
73 |
61.5% /
46.8% |
56.0% /
38.4% |
45.1% /
38.5% |
5.7 /
3.9 |
4.0% /
0.0% |
36.0% /
52.1% |
26.0 /
38.1 |
| 3 |
@DAL |
17 – 31 L |
-13.6 |
53.2% /
62.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
10.3 |
26.7% /
73.2% |
46.7% /
12.2% |
4.9 /
4.9 |
62 /
65 |
51.0% /
73.6% |
46.8% /
69.2% |
45.4% /
33.8% |
6.3 /
6.9 |
3.2% /
1.5% |
24.2% /
63.1% |
26.3 /
30.7 |
| 4 |
DET |
17 – 14 W |
6.0 |
57.9% /
47.4% |
5.3% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
5.6% |
7.7 /
5.2 |
43.8% /
44.4% |
25.0% /
33.3% |
3.7 /
3.7 |
70 /
56 |
60.8% /
50.0% |
51.4% /
46.4% |
34.5% /
22.1% |
5.9 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.7% /
32.1% |
28.3 /
26.0 |
| 5 |
@IND |
23 – 29 L |
-2.7 |
53.5% /
52.3% |
0.0% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.2 /
6.8 |
40.0% /
34.8% |
20.0% /
13.0% |
6.3 /
4.3 |
63 /
67 |
56.9% /
54.0% |
49.2% /
46.3% |
38.6% /
61.3% |
8.3 /
5.9 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
31.7% /
34.3% |
21.5 /
30.9 |
| 6 |
JAC |
16 – 17 L |
5.3 |
40.0% /
51.4% |
2.0% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
5.9 /
7.5 |
44.4% /
28.6% |
29.6% /
28.6% |
3.4 /
2.6 |
77 /
56 |
42.4% /
50.0% |
41.6% /
42.9% |
20.1% /
37.1% |
5.1 /
5.7 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
35.1% /
37.5% |
26.3 /
21.9 |
| 7 |
@GB |
10 – 26 L |
-4.5 |
33.3% /
53.4% |
3.7% /
3.4% |
7.7% /
0.0% |
4.4 /
5.2 |
31.6% /
41.7% |
36.8% /
20.8% |
3.7 /
4.3 |
46 /
82 |
36.1% /
50.0% |
32.6% /
50.0% |
45.3% /
25.6% |
4.1 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.2% |
41.3% /
29.3% |
20.6 /
24.5 |
| 8 |
MIN |
20 – 10 W |
10.2 |
53.1% /
45.2% |
3.1% /
11.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
4.8 |
41.4% /
38.9% |
31.0% /
5.6% |
5.4 /
3.2 |
61 /
60 |
46.8% /
48.9% |
47.5% /
43.3% |
53.1% /
38.0% |
6.6 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.5% /
30.0% |
21.7 /
23.3 |
| 10 |
@TB |
10 – 36 L |
-11.4 |
38.2% /
54.1% |
11.8% /
10.8% |
6.7% /
3.0% |
4.7 /
7.6 |
50.0% /
25.8% |
20.0% /
35.5% |
6.1 /
2.6 |
54 /
68 |
48.8% /
37.7% |
42.6% /
41.2% |
54.1% /
31.7% |
5.2 /
5.3 |
3.7% /
0.0% |
37.0% /
45.6% |
25.0 /
31.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@ATL |
31 – 24 W |
4.7 |
57.6% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
3.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
7.7 |
28.1% /
30.4% |
21.9% /
30.4% |
2.9 /
2.3 |
65 /
65 |
51.0% /
50.0% |
43.1% /
43.1% |
48.3% /
43.2% |
5.7 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.2% /
35.4% |
23.8 /
30.8 |
| 2 |
@ARI |
7 – 40 L |
-16.6 |
40.0% /
50.0% |
5.5% /
2.8% |
7.7% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
8.8 |
40.9% /
34.5% |
22.7% /
20.7% |
3.9 /
3.5 |
77 /
65 |
42.6% /
43.1% |
40.3% /
43.1% |
19.5% /
55.0% |
4.0 /
6.4 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
28.6% /
44.6% |
25.7 /
28.8 |
| 3 |
LA |
32 – 37 L |
-0.7 |
50.0% /
40.7% |
3.3% /
3.7% |
1.7% /
3.8% |
6.5 /
6.8 |
65.2% /
57.6% |
17.4% /
21.2% |
3.7 /
4.2 |
83 /
60 |
55.6% /
51.1% |
54.2% /
50.0% |
30.9% /
43.4% |
5.7 /
5.3 |
1.2% /
1.7% |
27.7% /
55.0% |
28.5 /
28.9 |
| 4 |
DEN |
7 – 27 L |
-9.7 |
30.0% /
51.4% |
12.5% /
11.4% |
5.7% /
0.0% |
3.6 /
6.2 |
29.6% /
30.6% |
22.2% /
25.0% |
2.7 /
2.6 |
67 /
71 |
31.9% /
50.0% |
29.9% /
40.8% |
17.1% /
27.4% |
3.2 /
4.4 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
40.3% /
50.7% |
22.8 /
37.0 |
| 5 |
@CAR |
17 – 14 W |
1.6 |
53.1% /
64.3% |
6.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
6.3 /
9.9 |
36.8% /
68.0% |
28.9% /
12.0% |
3.0 /
5.4 |
70 /
53 |
47.2% /
72.7% |
44.3% /
66.0% |
31.3% /
52.9% |
4.5 /
7.8 |
0.0% /
3.8% |
54.3% /
47.2% |
31.1 /
23.9 |
| 7 |
@SF |
34 – 17 W |
2.0 |
53.1% /
34.2% |
6.3% /
10.5% |
3.3% /
2.9% |
8.3 /
3.0 |
52.4% /
64.3% |
16.7% /
21.4% |
6.0 /
5.7 |
74 /
66 |
57.9% /
48.0% |
52.7% /
47.0% |
47.3% /
38.1% |
6.9 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
3.0% |
56.8% /
42.4% |
26.4 /
30.7 |
| 8 |
OAK |
24 – 30 L |
2.4 |
35.3% /
41.0% |
5.9% /
3.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.9 /
8.2 |
55.6% /
45.8% |
18.5% /
25.0% |
3.8 /
5.3 |
61 /
85 |
47.9% /
43.1% |
44.3% /
42.4% |
20.0% /
59.7% |
4.4 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
1.2% |
44.3% /
28.2% |
26.5 /
24.1 |
| 9 |
ATL |
28 – 43 L |
-9.5 |
58.8% /
61.1% |
5.9% /
5.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
9.0 |
47.4% /
47.2% |
26.3% /
25.0% |
3.8 /
3.8 |
70 /
72 |
55.6% /
56.9% |
55.7% /
54.2% |
21.7% /
52.9% |
5.7 /
6.4 |
2.9% /
1.4% |
27.1% /
50.0% |
30.6 /
34.8 |
| 10 |
CHI |
36 – 10 W |
11.4 |
54.1% /
38.2% |
10.8% /
11.8% |
3.0% /
6.7% |
7.6 /
4.7 |
25.8% /
50.0% |
35.5% /
20.0% |
2.6 /
6.1 |
68 /
54 |
37.7% /
48.8% |
41.2% /
42.6% |
31.7% /
54.1% |
5.3 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
3.7% |
45.6% /
37.0% |
31.9 /
25.0 |
Chicago Bears
@ 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers