Game Analysis

NEW ORLEANS (-8.5) vs Chicago

· Chicago traded a second-round pick for edge rusher Montez Sweat this week. Sweat’s 6.5 sacks equal the sack output of the rest of the Bears’ defensive line in 2023. Chicago’s defense has only a 27.9% pressure rate (31st) and they will be more of a threat rushing the passer with Sweat on the field.

· Derek Carr dealt with a sprained AC joint in weeks 4 and 5 but he is averaging 6.9 yppp in the last three games.

· Saints WR Rashid Shaheed is gaining 0.49 EPA/target (12th) and WR Michael Thomas has a 56% success rate (18th). Shaheed and Thomas will have a favorable matchup on the outside across from Bears CB Tyrique Stevenson, who is allowing 1.57 yards per cover snap (10th-worst).

· Meanwhile, Chicago CB Jaylon Johnson is conceding only a 42% completion rate into his coverage (4th) and he will shut down WR Chris Olave.

· The Bears are conceding a 33.1% rush success rate (3rd) and New Orleans will continue using RB Alvin Kamara as a receiver instead of a runner. The Saints targeted running backs on 28.8% of passes in October (2nd-most) with Alvin Kamara coming off his three-game suspension to start the season and Chicago’s defense is allowing a league-high 55% pass success rate to running backs. Furthermore, Bears starting LB Tremaine Edmunds suffered a knee injury last Sunday night and could miss this game.

· New Orleans is allowing a league-low 29% pass success rate to running backs and they will shut down Tyson Bagent, who’s thrown 31.8% of passes to running backs the last two weeks (2nd-most).

· Chicago wide receiver DJ Moore is averaging 0.59 EPA/target (7th) but he will be limited by cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who has 7 combined pass breakups and interceptions (5th).

· Bears rookie RT Darnell Wright ranks 47th in pass blocking efficiency out of 55 qualifying tackles and he will struggle versus edge rusher Cameron Jordan, whose 33 pressures rank 13th.

· The Saints are allowing only a 35.4% rush success rate (7th) and they will contain a Chicago ground game ranking 2nd in EPA/rush.

· Our model makes New Orleans a 10.5-point favorite, with a predicted total of 43.2 points.