Chicago Bears @

Minnesota Vikings

Sun, Dec 29

10:00 AM Pacific

Rotation: 105

Odds: Minnesota Vikings +3, Total: 36

Game Analysis

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Chicago (-3) over MINNESOTA

The Vikings are locked into the 6-seed and therefore have no incentive to play their starters. I’ll lean with Chicago based on a 90-35-1 ATS week 17 situation and the fact that teams headed to the playoffs are historically bad bets as underdogs in week 17 (the market has under-adjusted for teams sitting starters).

Team Stats
Game Log

Bears
Vikings

CHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 38.9 38.8
Succ Pass Plays 44.1% 45.8%
Sack Rate 7.4% 5.2%
Int Rate 2.1% 1.5%
Deep Pass Rate 18.8% 17.5%
Big Pass Yards 35.5% 36.0%
NYPP 5.4 6.1

Rush

Rush Plays 24.1 25.9
RB YPR 3.4 3.5
Stuff Rate 25.9% 20.9%
Succ Rush Plays 41.5% 43.7%
Big Rush Yards 24.3% 31.5%
Yards Per Rush 3.5 3.7

Game

All Snaps 63.0 64.7
Early Down Succ 46.3% 48.2%
Succ Rate 43.3% 45.2%
Big Yards Rate 33.3% 35.5%
Yards Per Play 4.6 5.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.9%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.5 28.2
Run Ratio 38.4% 40.0%
Starting Field Pos 28.5 30.0
Game Control -0.6 0.6

Points 17.3 18.6

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	GB	3 – 10 L	-2.9	34.0% / 40.0%	10.0% / 14.3%	2.2% / 0.0%	4.2 / 4.7	40.0% / 22.7%	26.7% / 36.4%	3.1 / 2.1	65 / 57	41.7% / 39.5%	35.4% / 33.3%	38.2% / 53.1%	3.9 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	23.1% / 38.6%	22.7 / 30.9
2	@DEN	16 – 14 W	2.6	40.7% / 50.0%	0.0% / 3.8%	0.0% / 2.0%	4.4 / 5.4	48.3% / 50.0%	20.7% / 25.0%	5.3 / 3.8	56 / 76	47.7% / 55.2%	44.6% / 50.0%	35.5% / 19.1%	4.9 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	51.8% / 31.6%	20.5 / 24.6
3	@WAS	31 – 15 W	13.9	55.9% / 57.4%	8.8% / 8.5%	3.2% / 7.0%	6.1 / 6.1	41.7% / 57.1%	20.8% / 19.0%	3.8 / 3.3	58 / 68	46.7% / 61.8%	50.0% / 57.4%	28.5% / 25.3%	5.1 / 5.2	0.0% / 2.9%	41.4% / 30.9%	36.9 / 28.7
4	MIN	16 – 6 W	10.0	55.9% / 40.5%	2.9% / 14.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.8 / 4.3	27.3% / 37.5%	21.2% / 25.0%	2.2 / 2.5	67 / 58	43.8% / 39.5%	41.8% / 39.7%	23.0% / 36.9%	4.0 / 3.8	0.0% / 3.4%	49.3% / 27.6%	32.4 / 22.3
5	@OAK	21 – 24 L	-4.6	50.0% / 53.1%	11.8% / 0.0%	6.7% / 0.0%	5.7 / 7.2	41.2% / 64.1%	35.3% / 5.1%	2.5 / 4.3	51 / 71	50.0% / 61.4%	47.1% / 59.2%	27.1% / 28.1%	4.6 / 5.6	0.0% / 2.8%	33.3% / 54.9%	31.7 / 32.0
7	NO	25 – 36 L	-8.2	44.6% / 48.7%	3.6% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.2 / 7.0	28.6% / 54.3%	28.6% / 14.3%	2.4 / 4.3	63 / 74	49.0% / 54.4%	42.9% / 51.4%	11.1% / 42.9%	4.0 / 5.7	3.2% / 0.0%	11.1% / 47.3%	26.1 / 39.5
8	LAC	16 – 17 L	2.7	41.0% / 43.3%	10.3% / 3.3%	2.9% / 3.4%	5.8 / 6.5	47.4% / 16.7%	28.9% / 50.0%	4.3 / 3.0	77 / 42	45.9% / 40.6%	44.2% / 35.7%	60.1% / 35.5%	5.0 / 5.5	1.3% / 0.0%	49.4% / 28.6%	30.7 / 34.0
9	@PHI	14 – 22 L	-7.7	25.0% / 51.2%	12.5% / 9.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.3 / 5.3	50.0% / 51.4%	33.3% / 14.3%	3.4 / 4.2	42 / 78	40.6% / 53.4%	35.7% / 51.3%	61.0% / 20.9%	3.9 / 4.8	2.4% / 0.0%	42.9% / 44.9%	28.9 / 26.9
10	DET	20 – 13 W	4.3	42.9% / 37.5%	17.9% / 4.2%	0.0% / 2.2%	5.2 / 5.4	41.7% / 48.1%	25.0% / 22.2%	3.4 / 3.6	52 / 75	48.7% / 44.4%	42.3% / 41.3%	25.2% / 28.3%	4.3 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	46.2% / 36.0%	25.8 / 30.0
11	@LA	7 – 17 L	-3.8	40.0% / 50.0%	6.0% / 0.0%	2.1% / 5.6%	3.9 / 9.6	50.0% / 44.1%	20.8% / 17.6%	3.1 / 3.2	74 / 52	47.3% / 52.5%	43.2% / 46.2%	9.0% / 54.1%	3.6 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.9%	32.4% / 65.4%	24.8 / 33.5
12	NYG	19 – 14 W	3.2	44.2% / 35.1%	4.7% / 2.7%	4.9% / 0.0%	6.3 / 3.6	30.8% / 38.1%	30.8% / 23.8%	2.5 / 5.2	69 / 58	44.2% / 42.9%	39.1% / 36.2%	49.0% / 43.6%	4.9 / 4.2	0.0% / 1.7%	37.7% / 36.2%	31.7 / 32.9
13	@DET	24 – 20 W	-3.8	61.5% / 40.0%	2.6% / 5.0%	2.6% / 2.6%	8.5 / 6.5	47.8% / 51.9%	21.7% / 18.5%	3.8 / 3.9	62 / 67	60.0% / 44.0%	56.5% / 44.8%	26.5% / 47.5%	6.8 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	37.1% / 40.3%	24.1 / 31.1
14	DAL	31 – 24 W	6.8	48.5% / 49.0%	6.1% / 3.9%	3.2% / 0.0%	7.0 / 6.4	50.0% / 45.5%	23.5% / 13.6%	4.4 / 3.7	67 / 73	49.1% / 50.0%	49.3% / 47.9%	45.3% / 39.5%	5.7 / 5.6	1.5% / 0.0%	50.7% / 30.1%	40.1 / 21.0
15	@GB	13 – 21 L	-9.0	44.6% / 38.2%	5.4% / 2.9%	3.8% / 0.0%	5.7 / 5.6	37.0% / 25.0%	18.5% / 8.3%	3.6 / 4.2	83 / 58	42.4% / 32.5%	42.2% / 32.8%	31.8% / 51.4%	5.0 / 5.0	1.2% / 0.0%	32.5% / 41.4%	26.0 / 38.3
16	KC	3 – 26 L	-12.2	32.4% / 52.9%	8.1% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.6 / 7.2	40.9% / 48.3%	31.8% / 20.7%	4.6 / 3.7	59 / 63	37.2% / 51.0%	35.6% / 50.8%	27.8% / 6.9%	4.0 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	37.3% / 46.0%	24.8 / 23.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	ATL	28 – 12 W	18.6	63.6% / 48.0%	9.1% / 8.0%	0.0% / 4.3%	8.8 / 5.4	36.8% / 41.2%	26.3% / 29.4%	4.5 / 4.3	49 / 67	43.2% / 47.4%	42.9% / 46.3%	58.0% / 36.5%	5.5 / 5.1	0.0% / 1.5%	77.6% / 25.4%	33.7 / 26.5
2	@GB	16 – 21 L	-9.0	30.3% / 44.4%	3.0% / 5.6%	6.3% / 0.0%	6.8 / 5.3	55.6% / 54.5%	18.5% / 21.2%	7.3 / 4.4	60 / 69	44.7% / 54.7%	41.7% / 49.3%	65.6% / 32.5%	7.0 / 4.9	3.3% / 2.9%	45.0% / 47.8%	28.7 / 28.5
3	OAK	34 – 14 W	15.9	47.6% / 52.6%	0.0% / 10.5%	0.0% / 2.9%	8.3 / 5.6	55.3% / 45.0%	7.9% / 15.0%	5.6 / 4.4	59 / 58	54.2% / 54.5%	52.5% / 50.0%	55.8% / 29.1%	6.5 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	64.4% / 34.5%	28.4 / 22.3
4	@CHI	6 – 16 L	-10.0	40.5% / 55.9%	14.3% / 2.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.3 / 5.8	37.5% / 27.3%	25.0% / 21.2%	2.5 / 2.2	58 / 67	39.5% / 43.8%	39.7% / 41.8%	36.9% / 23.0%	3.8 / 4.0	3.4% / 0.0%	27.6% / 49.3%	22.3 / 32.4
5	@NYG	28 – 10 W	9.2	60.0% / 33.3%	10.0% / 9.5%	0.0% / 2.6%	9.3 / 3.5	35.3% / 50.0%	29.4% / 20.0%	6.2 / 3.2	64 / 62	47.1% / 37.2%	46.9% / 38.7%	65.7% / 21.8%	7.7 / 3.4	1.6% / 0.0%	53.1% / 32.3%	31.0 / 26.3
6	PHI	38 – 20 W	10.8	63.3% / 53.5%	3.3% / 4.7%	3.4% / 4.9%	10.8 / 6.8	37.1% / 59.1%	34.3% / 13.6%	3.5 / 4.9	65 / 65	54.7% / 62.0%	49.2% / 55.4%	52.3% / 53.0%	6.9 / 6.2	1.5% / 1.5%	53.8% / 33.8%	33.3 / 26.2
7	@DET	42 – 30 W	2.5	67.6% / 53.2%	0.0% / 4.3%	0.0% / 2.2%	9.9 / 7.5	54.1% / 55.0%	13.5% / 10.0%	4.5 / 4.1	71 / 67	63.8% / 54.5%	60.6% / 53.7%	43.7% / 37.9%	7.1 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	52.1% / 29.9%	23.6 / 24.7
8	WAS	19 – 9 W	4.9	48.3% / 56.0%	10.3% / 16.0%	0.0% / 4.8%	9.4 / 5.2	44.7% / 62.5%	18.4% / 25.0%	4.2 / 5.3	67 / 41	44.9% / 64.7%	46.3% / 58.5%	47.7% / 34.7%	6.5 / 5.3	1.5% / 2.4%	56.7% / 39.0%	27.0 / 27.1
9	@KC	23 – 26 L	-0.3	41.0% / 52.5%	2.6% / 12.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.4 / 5.8	25.9% / 55.6%	25.9% / 22.2%	3.6 / 8.2	66 / 58	34.0% / 60.5%	34.8% / 53.4%	40.6% / 53.6%	4.7 / 6.5	0.0% / 1.7%	40.9% / 31.0%	28.8 / 26.1
10	@DAL	28 – 24 W	5.3	63.6% / 54.2%	3.0% / 2.1%	0.0% / 2.1%	6.4 / 8.2	50.0% / 40.9%	19.4% / 22.7%	4.3 / 2.3	69 / 70	55.6% / 49.1%	56.5% / 50.0%	44.5% / 45.1%	5.3 / 6.3	0.0% / 0.0%	52.2% / 31.4%	22.7 / 27.3
11	DEN	27 – 23 W	-9.9	57.5% / 31.0%	12.5% / 4.8%	0.0% / 2.5%	7.1 / 6.4	38.9% / 60.6%	38.9% / 18.2%	2.1 / 3.8	58 / 75	52.3% / 45.3%	51.7% / 44.0%	53.3% / 56.1%	5.5 / 5.3	3.4% / 0.0%	31.0% / 44.0%	28.1 / 34.8
13	@SEA	30 – 37 L	-0.3	44.7% / 51.5%	0.0% / 6.1%	2.6% / 3.2%	7.3 / 6.8	64.3% / 67.4%	28.6% / 14.0%	5.6 / 5.1	52 / 76	51.2% / 62.7%	50.0% / 60.5%	38.4% / 41.0%	6.8 / 5.8	3.8% / 1.3%	26.9% / 56.6%	22.6 / 37.3
14	DET	20 – 7 W	12.0	54.8% / 48.9%	3.2% / 11.1%	0.0% / 5.0%	7.5 / 3.6	38.5% / 59.1%	20.5% / 22.7%	3.1 / 3.2	70 / 67	50.0% / 54.0%	45.7% / 52.2%	29.7% / 10.0%	5.1 / 3.4	0.0% / 0.0%	55.7% / 32.8%	29.0 / 24.9
15	@LAC	39 – 10 W	11.2	56.0% / 57.1%	0.0% / 7.1%	4.0% / 7.7%	8.3 / 6.7	45.9% / 52.6%	21.6% / 31.6%	3.7 / 3.3	62 / 61	52.2% / 56.3%	50.0% / 55.7%	36.0% / 32.8%	5.5 / 5.7	0.0% / 6.6%	59.7% / 31.1%	44.4 / 22.5
16	GB	10 – 23 L	-0.7	32.4% / 48.8%	13.5% / 7.0%	3.1% / 2.5%	2.2 / 4.6	37.5% / 53.1%	18.8% / 12.5%	3.6 / 5.8	53 / 75	38.9% / 55.9%	34.0% / 50.7%	45.3% / 21.7%	2.6 / 5.1	0.0% / 2.7%	30.2% / 42.7%	35.3 / 32.3

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