Game Analysis
MIAMI (+7) vs Chicago
Note: Dolphins’ quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been downgraded to questionable and it looks likely now (based on the line move) that Brock Osweiler will start at quarterback for the Dolphins in place of Ryan Tannehill, which is why the market has moved 3 points. The difference between Tannehill and Osweiler is about 2 points, which would move our model prediction to Bears by 6.6 points and would keep this game as a pass. If Tannehill starts then there is value on the Dolphins.
Miami started the season in promising fashion with 3 victories but the Dolphins’ interior offensive line is a disaster without Josh Sitton and Daniel Kilgore. Geno Atkins recorded 2 sacks and 5 total pressures against the Dolphins last week and I expect Akeem Hicks, whose 3 sacks rank 6th among interior defensive linemen, to have a similarly disruptive impact. Furthermore, I don’t think Miami’s ground game will find any room to run as their banged-up offensive line faces a stingy Bears defense allowing just a 29% rush success rate, the best mark in the league by a wide margin. In fact, the gap between Chicago and the second-best rush defense is larger than the gap between second and the league average. It will be up to Ryan Tannehill to lead the Miami offense but he’s been just mediocre so far this season and the Bears can put a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks with their elite pass rush (4.5 sacks per game).
The Dolphins defense looked better with Pro Bowl Safety Reshad Jones back in the lineup last week as he allowed just 1 reception (for negative yards), recorded 2 pass breakups and 4 defensive stops. Miami’s defense is surrendering 5.5 yards per play with Jones in the lineup this season compared to 6.2 yards per play in the two games he missed. Jones will be particularly important limiting Chicago’s newfound vertical attack. Mitch Trubisky has been limited to mostly short passes (70% completions but just 10.4 yards per completion) but he completed 7 of his 8 passes traveling further than 20 yards downfield for 218 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last game against Tampa Bay. Trubisky is now up to 6.3 yards per pass play for the season (17th) after his huge week 4 performance and it will be interesting to see if the coaching staff continues to stretch the field after having success doing so before their bye week. Bears head coach Matt Nagy (formerly KC Offensive Coordinator) compared Tarik Cohen to Tyreek Hill in the preseason. Cohen hasn’t disappointed with 2.52 yards per route run, 3rd among running backs, so the game-plan certainly won’t shy too much away from the high-percentage passes.
Chicago has an advantage in this game being off a bye and our model favors them by 3.7 points in Miami against the suddenly struggling Dolphins. That’s not enough value to play this game, however.
- Team Stats
- Game Log
- Bears
- Dolphins
Pass
- Pass Plays 35.0 38.0
- Succ Pass Plays 49.4% 43.2%
- Sack Rate 6.9% 12.0%
- Int Rate 2.2% 6.3%
- Deep Pass Rate 20.3% 21.4%
- Big Pass Yards 37.7% 49.3%
- NYPP 6.7 6.0
Rush
- Rush Plays 30.0 19.0
- RB YPR 3.7 2.9
- Stuff Rate 20.5% 20.1%
- Succ Rush Plays 53.5% 36.4%
- Big Rush Yards 40.6% 23.5%
- Yards Per Rush 4.1 3.4
Game
- All Snaps 65.0 57.0
- Early Down Succ 54.7% 42.8%
- Succ Rate 50.6% 41.0%
- Big Yards Rate 38.6% 43.6%
- Yards Per Play 5.3 5.1
- Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 1.4%
- Time Per Play (sec) 30.5 28.4
- Run Ratio 46.4% 33.5%
- Starting Field Pos 28.7 27.9
- Game Control 9.3 -9.3
- Points 27.8 16.3