Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Chicago (+13) over KANSAS CITY

· It’s been a disastrous start to the season for Justin Fields, who has only a 5-yard average depth of target despite taking 3.18 seconds to throw (4th-longest). No quarterback since tracking began has ever finished with a time to throw more than 3.1 seconds with less than 8 air yards per attempt.

· Fields is simply staying in the pocket too long as he has been sacked on a league-high 32% of his pressures since being drafted while the NFL average is 20%.

· We know the adjustment. He needs to start scrambling more. Fields is an electric runner with more rushing EPA during his first two seasons than any quarterback in the last 20 years.

· We saw this same scenario play out at the beginning of last year. Fields had less than a 40% success rate through the first 5 weeks of 2022 and then he started running against Washington and had a 47% success rate the rest of the season.

· Fields has just 5 designed runs in 2023. I believe the frustration in Chicago is going to force offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to call more runs for Fields, who will also be looking to scramble more in order to save his season.

· Fields has 21 targets to RBs, which leads the NFL, and defending running backs as pass catchers out of the backfield has always been a weakness of Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. The Chiefs allowed 5.9 yards per target last season (23rd).

· The Bears should get the matchups they want across from weaker Kansas City cornerbacks Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson for wide receiver DJ Moore, who gained 14.9 yards per target last week.

· The Chiefs eased nearly 34-year-old Travis Kelce back in off the knee injury last game. Kelce had just 26 routes on 45 Patrick Mahomes dropbacks. I expect Kelce to not be at full strength again this week and he has a tough matchup that will prevent fireworks for Kansas City’s offense again after scoring just 37 points in their first two games.

· Matt Eberflus’s defense allowed just 6.5 yards per target to tight ends in 2022 (9th) and they’ve since signed linebackers TJ Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds, who ranked 8th and 3rd in coverage grade by PFF last year.

· Our model favors the Chiefs by only 9.3 points, with a predicted total of 45.9 points.

Chicago is a Strong Opinion at +12.5 or more.