Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – GREEN BAY (-4) over Chicago

From weeks 1 to 9, 23.5% of Mitchell Trubisky’s passes were deemed uncatchable (3rd-worst). However, Trubisky has cut it down to a 17.6% uncatchable pass rate in the five weeks since (9th-best). The question is how much of Trubisky’s improvement is real and how much is variance. The Bears are targeting running backs on 27.0% of passes (5th-most) but the Packers are allowing only 5.4 yards per target to opposing running backs (9th), Linebacker Blake Martinez is averaging 8.6 cover snaps per reception conceded (10th) and he should limit Tarik Cohen out of the backfield. So, Trubisky may have to look down the field more and he isn’t likely to continue his recent success doing so. WR Anthony Miller has stepped up the last two weeks with Taylor Gabriel out, gaining 2.81 yards per route run in the slot. However, Miller will likely struggle on Sunday across from nickelback Tramon Williams, who has surrendered 0.92 yards per slot cover snap (7th). Packers’ edge defender Preston Smith ranks 8th in pass rushing efficiency and is likely to put pressure on the Bears’ quarterback if starting right tackle Bobby Massie misses his third-straight game with a high-ankle sprain.

Chicago’s defense will have Prince Amukamara back in uniform to face Davante Adams, who is gaining 2.25 yards per route run (9th). However, the Bears will be without both starting linebackers Danny Trevathan and Roquan Smith. Aaron Jones is averaging 1.84 yards per route run (4th) but Chicago’s backup linebackers have been competent thus far. Nick Kwiatkoski is only allowing 0.71 yards per cover snap and Kevin Pierre-Louis conceded just 12 yards from 5 targets when Dallas tried to pick on the fourth-stringer last week. Green Bay’s ground game ranks 2nd and will be limited by the Bears 4th-rated rush defense.

Mitchell Trubisky is playing better but he is likely to be under pressure this week and his favorite underneath targets won’t be available. Aaron Rodgers will have an advantage at the line of scrimmage calling audibles versus Chicago’s backup linebackers but he run game figures to be kept in check and he likely won’t find his favorite receiver open as often as usual. Our model favors the Packers by 5.2 points, with a predicted total of 38.7 points, and I’ll lean with Green Bay on the basis of a 27-85-4 ATS road letdown situation that applies to Chicago based on last week’s home upset win.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bears
Packers

CHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 37.8 39.5
Succ Pass Plays 44.9% 45.8%
Sack Rate 7.5% 5.5%
Int Rate 2.1% 1.8%
Deep Pass Rate 17.6% 16.6%
Big Pass Yards 36.6% 37.1%
NYPP 5.5 6.0

Rush

Rush Plays 24.0 25.8
RB YPR 3.3 3.5
Stuff Rate 26.0% 21.9%
Succ Rush Plays 41.9% 44.7%
Big Rush Yards 24.6% 31.7%
Yards Per Rush 3.4 3.6

Game

All Snaps 61.8 65.3
Early Down Succ 47.3% 49.2%
Succ Rate 44.0% 45.7%
Big Yards Rate 33.8% 36.5%
Yards Per Play 4.7 5.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 28.9 28.1
Run Ratio 38.9% 39.4%
Starting Field Pos 29.0 29.8
Game Control 1.0 -1.0

Points 18.7 17.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	GB	3 – 10 L	-2.9	34.0% / 40.0%	10.0% / 14.3%	2.2% / 0.0%	4.2 / 4.7	40.0% / 22.7%	26.7% / 36.4%	3.1 / 2.1	65 / 57	41.7% / 39.5%	35.4% / 33.3%	38.2% / 53.1%	3.9 / 3.7	0.0% / 0.0%	23.1% / 38.6%	22.7 / 30.9
2	@DEN	16 – 14 W	2.6	40.7% / 50.0%	0.0% / 3.8%	0.0% / 2.0%	4.4 / 5.4	48.3% / 50.0%	20.7% / 25.0%	5.3 / 3.8	56 / 76	47.7% / 55.2%	44.6% / 50.0%	35.5% / 19.1%	4.9 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	51.8% / 31.6%	20.5 / 24.6
3	@WAS	31 – 15 W	13.9	55.9% / 57.4%	8.8% / 8.5%	3.2% / 7.0%	6.1 / 6.1	41.7% / 57.1%	20.8% / 19.0%	3.8 / 3.3	58 / 68	46.7% / 61.8%	50.0% / 57.4%	28.5% / 25.3%	5.1 / 5.2	0.0% / 2.9%	41.4% / 30.9%	36.9 / 28.7
4	MIN	16 – 6 W	10.0	55.9% / 40.5%	2.9% / 14.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.8 / 4.3	27.3% / 37.5%	21.2% / 25.0%	2.2 / 2.5	67 / 58	43.8% / 39.5%	41.8% / 39.7%	23.0% / 36.9%	4.0 / 3.8	0.0% / 3.4%	49.3% / 27.6%	32.4 / 22.3
5	@OAK	21 – 24 L	-4.6	50.0% / 53.1%	11.8% / 0.0%	6.7% / 0.0%	5.7 / 7.2	41.2% / 64.1%	35.3% / 5.1%	2.5 / 4.3	51 / 71	50.0% / 61.4%	47.1% / 59.2%	27.1% / 28.1%	4.6 / 5.6	0.0% / 2.8%	33.3% / 54.9%	31.7 / 32.0
7	NO	25 – 36 L	-8.2	44.6% / 48.7%	3.6% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.2 / 7.0	28.6% / 54.3%	28.6% / 14.3%	2.4 / 4.3	63 / 74	49.0% / 54.4%	42.9% / 51.4%	11.1% / 42.9%	4.0 / 5.7	3.2% / 0.0%	11.1% / 47.3%	26.1 / 39.5
8	LAC	16 – 17 L	2.7	41.0% / 43.3%	10.3% / 3.3%	2.9% / 3.4%	5.8 / 6.5	47.4% / 16.7%	28.9% / 50.0%	4.3 / 3.0	77 / 42	45.9% / 40.6%	44.2% / 35.7%	60.1% / 35.5%	5.0 / 5.5	1.3% / 0.0%	49.4% / 28.6%	30.7 / 34.0
9	@PHI	14 – 22 L	-7.7	25.0% / 51.2%	12.5% / 9.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.3 / 5.3	50.0% / 51.4%	33.3% / 14.3%	3.4 / 4.2	42 / 78	40.6% / 53.4%	35.7% / 51.3%	61.0% / 20.9%	3.9 / 4.8	2.4% / 0.0%	42.9% / 44.9%	28.9 / 26.9
10	DET	20 – 13 W	4.3	42.9% / 37.5%	17.9% / 4.2%	0.0% / 2.2%	5.2 / 5.4	41.7% / 48.1%	25.0% / 22.2%	3.4 / 3.6	52 / 75	48.7% / 44.4%	42.3% / 41.3%	25.2% / 28.3%	4.3 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	46.2% / 36.0%	25.8 / 30.0
11	@LA	7 – 17 L	-3.8	40.0% / 50.0%	6.0% / 0.0%	2.1% / 5.6%	3.9 / 9.6	50.0% / 44.1%	20.8% / 17.6%	3.1 / 3.2	74 / 52	47.3% / 52.5%	43.2% / 46.2%	9.0% / 54.1%	3.6 / 5.4	0.0% / 1.9%	32.4% / 65.4%	24.8 / 33.5
12	NYG	19 – 14 W	3.2	44.2% / 35.1%	4.7% / 2.7%	4.9% / 0.0%	6.3 / 3.6	30.8% / 38.1%	30.8% / 23.8%	2.5 / 5.2	69 / 58	44.2% / 42.9%	39.1% / 36.2%	49.0% / 43.6%	4.9 / 4.2	0.0% / 1.7%	37.7% / 36.2%	31.7 / 32.9
13	@DET	24 – 20 W	-3.8	61.5% / 40.0%	2.6% / 5.0%	2.6% / 2.6%	8.5 / 6.5	47.8% / 51.9%	21.7% / 18.5%	3.8 / 3.9	62 / 67	60.0% / 44.0%	56.5% / 44.8%	26.5% / 47.5%	6.8 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	37.1% / 40.3%	24.1 / 31.1
14	DAL	31 – 24 W	6.8	48.5% / 49.0%	6.1% / 3.9%	3.2% / 0.0%	7.0 / 6.4	50.0% / 45.5%	23.5% / 13.6%	4.4 / 3.7	67 / 73	49.1% / 50.0%	49.3% / 47.9%	45.3% / 39.5%	5.7 / 5.6	1.5% / 0.0%	50.7% / 30.1%	40.1 / 21.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CHI	10 – 3 W	2.9	40.0% / 34.0%	14.3% / 10.0%	0.0% / 2.2%	4.7 / 4.2	22.7% / 40.0%	36.4% / 26.7%	2.1 / 3.1	57 / 65	39.5% / 41.7%	33.3% / 35.4%	53.1% / 38.2%	3.7 / 3.9	0.0% / 0.0%	38.6% / 23.1%	30.9 / 22.7
2	MIN	21 – 16 W	9.0	44.4% / 30.3%	5.6% / 3.0%	0.0% / 6.3%	5.3 / 6.8	54.5% / 55.6%	21.2% / 18.5%	4.4 / 7.3	69 / 60	54.7% / 44.7%	49.3% / 41.7%	32.5% / 65.6%	4.9 / 7.0	2.9% / 3.3%	47.8% / 45.0%	28.5 / 28.7
3	DEN	27 – 16 W	7.3	37.9% / 45.7%	0.0% / 17.1%	0.0% / 3.4%	8.1 / 4.6	52.2% / 60.5%	17.4% / 13.2%	3.3 / 3.9	52 / 73	50.0% / 52.7%	44.2% / 53.4%	45.2% / 40.0%	6.0 / 4.2	0.0% / 2.7%	44.2% / 52.1%	36.3 / 26.0
4	PHI	27 – 34 L	-0.2	48.1% / 55.6%	1.9% / 0.0%	1.9% / 0.0%	7.7 / 5.9	55.0% / 69.7%	30.0% / 6.1%	3.9 / 5.3	74 / 60	50.8% / 67.3%	50.0% / 63.3%	39.5% / 31.3%	6.6 / 5.6	1.4% / 0.0%	27.0% / 55.0%	21.0 / 31.9
5	@DAL	34 – 24 W	14.0	41.7% / 53.2%	5.6% / 6.4%	0.0% / 6.8%	6.0 / 9.4	55.2% / 66.7%	17.2% / 14.3%	4.1 / 5.8	65 / 68	54.9% / 61.7%	47.7% / 57.4%	52.5% / 62.3%	5.2 / 8.3	0.0% / 0.0%	44.6% / 30.9%	31.7 / 23.1
6	DET	23 – 22 W	-5.8	40.0% / 40.0%	2.5% / 8.6%	2.6% / 0.0%	6.9 / 6.9	62.1% / 40.0%	3.4% / 30.0%	5.9 / 2.8	69 / 55	53.6% / 45.0%	49.3% / 40.0%	49.0% / 58.9%	6.5 / 5.4	2.9% / 0.0%	42.0% / 36.4%	21.0 / 33.2
7	OAK	42 – 24 W	10.0	68.8% / 67.7%	3.1% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.2%	13.2 / 10.6	34.8% / 38.7%	21.7% / 16.1%	2.6 / 5.0	55 / 62	55.8% / 53.1%	54.5% / 53.2%	68.4% / 38.0%	8.7 / 7.8	0.0% / 1.6%	41.8% / 50.0%	16.6 / 29.3
8	@KC	31 – 24 W	3.7	52.6% / 47.4%	13.2% / 5.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.7 / 6.6	57.7% / 75.0%	7.7% / 5.0%	4.5 / 4.4	64 / 58	55.1% / 57.4%	54.7% / 56.9%	48.1% / 38.6%	5.8 / 5.8	0.0% / 1.7%	40.6% / 34.5%	26.6 / 28.6
9	@LAC	11 – 26 L	-9.8	42.1% / 60.0%	7.9% / 6.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.7 / 9.4	63.6% / 63.2%	9.1% / 13.2%	4.1 / 4.2	49 / 68	55.3% / 66.7%	46.9% / 61.8%	0.0% / 37.1%	3.8 / 6.5	0.0% / 0.0%	22.4% / 55.9%	25.8 / 29.7
10	CAR	24 – 16 W	4.9	38.7% / 45.7%	6.5% / 6.5%	0.0% / 2.3%	7.3 / 6.1	70.4% / 52.2%	18.5% / 8.7%	6.0 / 5.2	58 / 69	55.1% / 48.3%	53.4% / 47.8%	56.2% / 28.7%	6.7 / 5.8	0.0% / 1.4%	46.6% / 33.3%	25.6 / 25.0
12	@SF	8 – 37 L	-16.2	26.2% / 52.2%	11.9% / 13.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	1.9 / 9.9	39.3% / 36.4%	35.7% / 31.8%	4.2 / 5.1	70 / 45	38.5% / 48.6%	31.4% / 44.4%	22.2% / 69.3%	2.8 / 7.5	1.4% / 0.0%	40.0% / 48.9%	25.2 / 40.9
13	@NYG	31 – 13 W	8.4	51.5% / 40.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 8.1%	7.4 / 6.5	57.7% / 55.6%	23.1% / 25.9%	3.0 / 3.5	59 / 64	54.5% / 47.8%	54.2% / 46.9%	44.4% / 42.7%	5.5 / 5.2	0.0% / 0.0%	44.1% / 42.2%	33.1 / 20.4
14	WAS	20 – 15 W	9.0	43.8% / 35.5%	12.5% / 12.9%	0.0% / 3.7%	5.2 / 4.5	60.7% / 60.7%	17.9% / 25.0%	6.2 / 4.3	60 / 59	57.1% / 51.1%	51.7% / 47.5%	54.5% / 37.4%	5.7 / 4.4	1.7% / 0.0%	46.7% / 47.5%	34.0 / 21.5

Chicago Bears @

Green Bay Packers

Sun, Dec 15

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis