Game Analysis
Lean – Chicago (+7) over GREEN BAY
The Bears beat the Steelers in overtime last week as a 7-point underdog and their 220 rushing yards in that game moved their rush offense to 2nd in the NFL in expected points added. The Packers rush defense is slightly below average and I expect the Bears to feature Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen again this week with good success. In fact, Chicago’s rushing advantage sets them up in a 79-32-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator in this game.
The Packers also won in overtime as they rallied to beat a struggling Cincinnati team. After a slow start to the season, Aaron Rodgers turned it on in the 2nd half throwing two touchdowns and a 72-yard pass in overtime set Green Bay up for the game-winning field goal. Rodgers performance was particularly impressive against a top 10 ranked Bengals pass defense.
I saw value in Chicago’s preseason expectations and the market has caught up given that the line on this game is right where it should be. However, the match-up does favor the Bears and I like the idea of backing a good running team with a solid defense getting a full touchdown. I’ll lean with Chicago at +7 points or more.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.0
35.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
40.6%
48.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.5%
6.5%
-
Int Rate
3.0%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
7.0%
19.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
6.5%
33.3%
-
NYPP
4.6
6.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.3
26.0
-
RB YPR
4.7
3.2
-
Stuff Rate
29.5%
13.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.8%
44.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.7%
19.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
3.4
Game
-
All Snaps
62.3
61.7
-
Early Down Succ
43.2%
47.6%
-
Succ Rate
42.3%
45.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
31.0%
31.2%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.6%
1.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.0
29.6
-
Run Ratio
39.1%
41.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.3
28.6
-
Game Control
-5.4
5.4
Pass
-
Pass Plays
49.0
30.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
48.2%
48.3%
-
Sack Rate
9.0%
9.9%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
12.2%
22.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
45.7%
41.9%
-
NYPP
6.0
6.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.3
25.3
-
RB YPR
3.0
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
24.6%
32.5%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.3%
42.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
17.3%
54.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.4
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
70.3
55.7
-
Early Down Succ
47.5%
48.9%
-
Succ Rate
47.0%
45.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.0%
46.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.3
29.9
-
Run Ratio
29.9%
45.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
24.6
26.9
-
Game Control
-5.5
5.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
ATL |
17 – 23 L |
-2.5 |
31.8% /
50.0% |
9.1% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
9.6 |
52.6% /
32.0% |
15.8% /
24.0% |
6.6 /
2.6 |
63 /
57 |
37.5% /
45.2% |
38.1% /
42.1% |
31.2% /
49.7% |
4.8 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.2% /
43.9% |
28.1 /
18.3 |
| 2 |
@TB |
7 – 29 L |
-18.1 |
56.5% /
48.5% |
2.2% /
6.1% |
4.4% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
5.9 |
25.0% /
36.1% |
43.8% /
11.1% |
1.3 /
3.3 |
62 /
69 |
50.0% /
41.2% |
48.4% /
42.0% |
6.5% /
14.4% |
5.0 /
4.5 |
3.2% /
1.4% |
25.8% /
52.2% |
27.0 /
31.1 |
| 3 |
PIT |
23 – 17 W |
4.4 |
33.3% /
47.6% |
8.3% /
7.1% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
3.5 /
5.0 |
44.7% /
64.7% |
28.9% /
5.9% |
5.8 /
4.1 |
62 /
59 |
42.0% /
56.3% |
40.3% /
52.5% |
55.3% /
29.4% |
4.9 /
4.8 |
1.6% /
3.4% |
61.3% /
28.8% |
32.7 /
36.4 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
SEA |
17 – 9 W |
2.5 |
50.0% /
40.0% |
8.7% /
10.0% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
4.5 |
35.5% /
38.9% |
19.4% /
50.0% |
2.8 /
5.0 |
77 /
48 |
44.6% /
44.4% |
44.2% /
39.6% |
37.8% /
58.7% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
2.1% |
40.3% /
37.5% |
25.9 /
27.5 |
| 2 |
@ATL |
23 – 34 L |
-12.4 |
50.9% /
51.6% |
5.7% /
9.7% |
2.0% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
7.2 |
56.3% /
55.6% |
25.0% /
18.5% |
3.8 /
5.2 |
69 /
58 |
53.8% /
55.3% |
52.2% /
53.4% |
24.2% /
50.0% |
5.3 /
6.3 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
23.2% /
46.6% |
22.1 /
26.7 |
| 3 |
CIN |
27 – 24 W |
-6.6 |
43.8% /
53.3% |
12.5% /
10.0% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
6.4 |
47.1% /
32.3% |
29.4% /
29.0% |
3.8 /
3.6 |
65 /
61 |
44.0% /
46.8% |
44.6% /
42.6% |
58.1% /
31.8% |
5.3 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
26.2% /
50.8% |
25.8 /
26.5 |
Chicago Bears
@ 
Green Bay Packers