Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Chicago (+9) over DETROIT

· Justin Fields was forced out with a dislocated thumb in week 6 but he will be back in uniform this week and he’s a clear upgrade over Tyson Bagent. Fields is averaging just 0.1 yppp more than Bagent but he makes Chicago’s offense better because of his running and ball security.

· Fields is averaging 39.5 rushing yards per game compared to Bagent’s 21.8 yards per game on the ground.

· Furthermore, Fields has only a 2.4% PFF turnover-worthy play rate (9th) while Bagent’s is 6.6% (37th).

· Fields will need to be confident throwing the ball as Detroit’s run defense ranks 6th according to our metrics. The Lions have been able to contain opposing ground games due to rookie Brian Branch, who has 8 run stops (4th among cornerbacks) and he almost acts as another linebacker in the run game.

· The Lions offense is 4th in EPA/rush but the Bears are conceding a league-low 31.9% rush success rate and Chicago’s pass defense is improving with the addition they made at the deadline.

· Edge defender Montez Sweat’s 8 pressures last week were the most by a Bears pass rusher this season. Jared Goff will not have as many clean pockets as he did versus Chicago’s defense last season in week 17 when the Bears had only a 20.0% pressure rate.

· Our model makes Detroit a 9.1-point favorite with a predicted total of 47.8 points. The line is fair, but the Lions apply to a 54-133-3 ATS big home favorite letdown situation while Chicago applies to a 436-288-18 ATS contrary indicator based on the huge disparity in the spread win percentages of these teams.

Chicago is a Strong Opinion at +8.5 or more.