Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Chicago (+6) over DETROIT

· The Bears defense ranks last in EPA/play allowed since trading Roquan Smith in week 8, but I think they will score plenty on their own and getting 6 points here is too many.

· Chicago’s offensive line will be back to full strength on Sunday with the return of guards Cody Whitehair and Teven Jenkins.

· The Lions have just a 5.5% sack rate (26th) and Justin Fields’ Achilles heel of holding onto the ball too long will not be tested.

· Detroit’s defense plays the most man coverage in the NFL which is exactly how the Bears want you to defend Fields because it forces defenders to turn their backs to the dangerous scrambling quarterback.

· Fields scrambled for 147 yards and two rushing touchdowns against the Lions in week 10.

· Chicago’s rush offense has a 41% success rate (17th) but they rank 9th in EPA/rush due to the value of those Fields scrambles.

· TE Cole Kmet leads the Bears with 44 receptions this season and the Lions are surrendering 8.2 yards per target to opposing tight ends (26th).

· Chicago backup nickelback Josh Blackwell will struggle in the slot to contain Amon-Ra St. Brown, whose success rate when targeted is 59% (8th).

· The Bears were 3-point favorites hosting the Lions in week 10. Chicago has lost a couple defenders and Detroit’s offense is healthier but the market shift of nearly 30 percentage points of win probability is unjustified.

· Our model has the Lions favored by just 3.5 points, with a predicted total of 52.2 points and the Bears apply to a 95-46-1 ATS division road underdog revenge situation.

Chicago is a Strong Opinion at +5 or more.