Chicago Bears @

Detroit Lions

Sat, Dec 16
1:30 PM Pacific
Rotation: 303
Odds: Detroit Lions -5.5, Total: 44

Game Analysis

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*Under (44) – DETROIT vs Chicago

Lean – Detroit (-5.5)

The total closed at 41 when these two teams met four weeks ago and now it’s moved through the key numbers of 42 and 43 all the way to 44. The adjustment from playing outdoor in Chicago to a dome accounts for about 2 points of the change we’re seeing, but I believe the difference in personnel from their previous matchup will make up most of it.

Linebacker Danny Trevathan did not play in that week 11 game against the Lions. Trevathan is responsible for Chicago’s defensive audibles and is extremely reliable with a 26.7 tackle to missed tackle ratio (3rd in NFL). Trevathan, along with Prince Amukamara, 6th among cornerbacks in yards allowed per cover snap, are the most important players on this Bears defense. Chicago surrenders 5.6 yards per play when either Trevathan or Amukamara is out of the lineup but less than 5 yards per play when both are healthy as they are expected to be on Sunday.

Detroit’s offensive line could also look much different than week 11. Center Travis Swanson, who hasn’t allowed a sack all season, and tackle Rick Wagner are both questionable and the Lions will be in trouble against this Chicago front seven if those two linemen aren’t healthy.

My metrics have Detroit’s run defense ranked 25th and the Lions allowed the Bears to gain 7.4 yards per rush last month. It is likely that Chicago will once again aim to attack the Lions on the ground while likely having less success than they did in the first meeting and more running plays leads to fewer totals plays, which should help keep the scoring down. These teams combined for just 129 total plays in week 11, more than 7.5 plays less than the league average, but the game went still went over. However, I do not expect the Bears to gain 7.4 yards per rush again and the Lions offense will likely take a step back due to injury-related personnel differences on both sides of the ball. Our model projects just 40 total points and I’ll go Under 43 points or higher in a 1-Star Best Bet.

As far as the side is concerned, our model favors Detroit by 5 points, so the line is pretty fair, but I’ll lean with the Lions based on a 52-12-2 ATS situation.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bears
  • Lions
CHI
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 30.5 35.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 37.4% 45.4%
  • Sack Rate 9.8% 7.6%
  • Int Rate 2.2% 1.2%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.2% 17.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 30.3% 33.3%
  • NYPP 5.5 6.2



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.3 28.5
  • RB YPR 3.8 3.8
  • Stuff Rate 28.2% 18.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 38.6% 43.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 54.4% 36.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.1 3.9




Game

  • All Snaps 58.8 64.3
  • Early Down Succ 40.6% 46.2%
  • Succ Rate 39.2% 43.8%
  • Big Yards Rate 38.1% 36.6%
  • Yards Per Play 4.9 5.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.2% 1.4%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.7 29.7
  • Run Ratio 48.1% 43.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 27.6 29.2
  • Game Control -2.8 2.8
 
  • Points 17.2 21.1
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