Game Analysis
*Under (44) – DETROIT vs Chicago
Lean – Detroit (-5.5)
The total closed at 41 when these two teams met four weeks ago and now it’s moved through the key numbers of 42 and 43 all the way to 44. The adjustment from playing outdoor in Chicago to a dome accounts for about 2 points of the change we’re seeing, but I believe the difference in personnel from their previous matchup will make up most of it.
Linebacker Danny Trevathan did not play in that week 11 game against the Lions. Trevathan is responsible for Chicago’s defensive audibles and is extremely reliable with a 26.7 tackle to missed tackle ratio (3rd in NFL). Trevathan, along with Prince Amukamara, 6th among cornerbacks in yards allowed per cover snap, are the most important players on this Bears defense. Chicago surrenders 5.6 yards per play when either Trevathan or Amukamara is out of the lineup but less than 5 yards per play when both are healthy as they are expected to be on Sunday.
Detroit’s offensive line could also look much different than week 11. Center Travis Swanson, who hasn’t allowed a sack all season, and tackle Rick Wagner are both questionable and the Lions will be in trouble against this Chicago front seven if those two linemen aren’t healthy.
My metrics have Detroit’s run defense ranked 25th and the Lions allowed the Bears to gain 7.4 yards per rush last month. It is likely that Chicago will once again aim to attack the Lions on the ground while likely having less success than they did in the first meeting and more running plays leads to fewer totals plays, which should help keep the scoring down. These teams combined for just 129 total plays in week 11, more than 7.5 plays less than the league average, but the game went still went over. However, I do not expect the Bears to gain 7.4 yards per rush again and the Lions offense will likely take a step back due to injury-related personnel differences on both sides of the ball. Our model projects just 40 total points and I’ll go Under 43 points or higher in a 1-Star Best Bet.
As far as the side is concerned, our model favors Detroit by 5 points, so the line is pretty fair, but I’ll lean with the Lions based on a 52-12-2 ATS situation.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.5
35.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
37.4%
45.4%
-
Sack Rate
9.8%
7.6%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
1.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.2%
17.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
30.3%
33.3%
-
NYPP
5.5
6.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.3
28.5
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
28.2%
18.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.6%
43.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
54.4%
36.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
58.8
64.3
-
Early Down Succ
40.6%
46.2%
-
Succ Rate
39.2%
43.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.1%
36.6%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
29.7
-
Run Ratio
48.1%
43.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.6
29.2
-
Game Control
-2.8
2.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.4
36.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.8%
46.3%
-
Sack Rate
8.0%
5.3%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.7%
21.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.4%
37.7%
-
NYPP
6.9
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.5
28.5
-
RB YPR
3.2
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
32.8%
20.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
35.2%
48.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.8%
36.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.3
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
62.8
65.3
-
Early Down Succ
44.0%
49.8%
-
Succ Rate
41.9%
46.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.9%
40.7%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
1.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.0
27.4
-
Run Ratio
37.5%
43.2%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.4
27.7
-
Game Control
-2.0
2.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
ATL |
17 – 23 L |
-2.5 |
31.8% / 50.0% |
9.1% / 6.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.0 / 9.6 |
52.6% / 32.0% |
15.8% / 24.0% |
6.6 / 2.6 |
63 / 57 |
37.5% / 45.2% |
38.1% / 42.1% |
31.2% / 49.7% |
4.8 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.2% / 43.9% |
28.1 / 18.3 |
2 |
@TB |
7 – 29 L |
-18.1 |
56.5% / 48.5% |
2.2% / 6.1% |
4.4% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 5.9 |
25.0% / 36.1% |
43.8% / 11.1% |
1.3 / 3.3 |
62 / 69 |
50.0% / 41.2% |
48.4% / 42.0% |
6.5% / 14.4% |
5.0 / 4.5 |
3.2% / 1.4% |
25.8% / 52.2% |
27.0 / 31.1 |
3 |
PIT |
23 – 17 W |
4.4 |
33.3% / 47.6% |
8.3% / 7.1% |
4.5% / 0.0% |
3.5 / 5.0 |
44.7% / 64.7% |
28.9% / 5.9% |
5.8 / 4.1 |
62 / 59 |
42.0% / 56.3% |
40.3% / 52.5% |
55.3% / 29.4% |
4.9 / 4.8 |
1.6% / 3.4% |
61.3% / 28.8% |
32.7 / 36.4 |
4 |
@GB |
14 – 35 L |
-16.9 |
38.2% / 41.4% |
2.9% / 6.9% |
6.1% / 0.0% |
6.0 / 5.8 |
40.0% / 48.0% |
26.7% / 4.0% |
3.4 / 3.7 |
64 / 54 |
36.0% / 43.2% |
39.1% / 44.4% |
25.6% / 50.6% |
4.8 / 4.8 |
3.1% / 0.0% |
46.9% / 46.3% |
28.5 / 33.5 |
5 |
MIN |
17 – 20 L |
-0.9 |
37.0% / 50.0% |
3.7% / 11.1% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
5.9 / 3.9 |
48.3% / 35.5% |
13.8% / 25.8% |
4.0 / 5.1 |
56 / 67 |
46.5% / 44.2% |
42.9% / 43.3% |
34.7% / 30.3% |
4.9 / 4.5 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
51.8% / 46.3% |
26.6 / 30.9 |
6 |
@BAL |
27 – 24 W |
4.4 |
28.6% / 27.3% |
19.0% / 6.8% |
0.0% / 4.9% |
5.3 / 3.8 |
41.8% / 46.2% |
29.1% / 15.4% |
4.2 / 4.8 |
76 / 70 |
42.1% / 37.3% |
38.2% / 34.3% |
41.1% / 21.6% |
4.5 / 4.2 |
2.6% / 1.4% |
72.4% / 37.1% |
27.6 / 29.9 |
7 |
CAR |
17 – 3 W |
11.4 |
18.2% / 41.0% |
36.4% / 12.8% |
0.0% / 5.9% |
7.7 / 4.7 |
32.3% / 33.3% |
16.1% / 33.3% |
2.3 / 3.6 |
42 / 69 |
41.7% / 37.7% |
28.6% / 37.7% |
67.3% / 49.8% |
3.7 / 4.2 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
73.8% / 43.5% |
28.7 / 24.6 |
8 |
@NO |
12 – 20 L |
-7.8 |
32.4% / 50.0% |
5.9% / 6.7% |
3.1% / 0.0% |
4.4 / 9.5 |
45.2% / 36.4% |
32.3% / 18.2% |
5.1 / 3.2 |
65 / 63 |
36.2% / 52.1% |
38.5% / 42.9% |
61.2% / 57.9% |
4.7 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 3.2% |
47.7% / 52.4% |
24.8 / 30.8 |
10 |
GB |
16 – 23 L |
-5.0 |
37.5% / 50.0% |
12.5% / 10.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 6.5 |
29.4% / 52.6% |
35.3% / 15.8% |
3.2 / 4.2 |
57 / 66 |
35.7% / 55.3% |
35.1% / 51.5% |
51.1% / 39.1% |
5.7 / 5.2 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
29.8% / 57.6% |
26.5 / 30.8 |
11 |
DET |
24 – 27 L |
0.0 |
48.4% / 52.9% |
3.2% / 8.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.7 / 8.4 |
60.0% / 40.0% |
13.3% / 40.0% |
7.4 / 2.6 |
61 / 59 |
56.9% / 53.2% |
54.1% / 47.5% |
45.5% / 39.4% |
6.5 / 6.0 |
1.6% / 1.7% |
49.2% / 42.4% |
23.9 / 24.0 |
12 |
@PHI |
3 – 31 L |
-17.1 |
22.9% / 45.0% |
5.7% / 2.5% |
6.1% / 0.0% |
3.8 / 6.1 |
6.7% / 41.7% |
53.3% / 22.2% |
0.5 / 5.0 |
50 / 76 |
18.2% / 45.1% |
18.0% / 43.4% |
7.8% / 32.6% |
2.8 / 5.6 |
0.0% / 3.9% |
30.0% / 47.4% |
27.9 / 40.5 |
13 |
SF |
14 – 15 L |
2.5 |
47.1% / 56.4% |
11.8% / 5.1% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
5.0 / 7.1 |
21.1% / 45.7% |
26.3% / 22.9% |
3.3 / 3.2 |
36 / 74 |
26.9% / 50.9% |
33.3% / 51.4% |
23.8% / 27.5% |
4.1 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
52.8% / 47.3% |
25.7 / 24.9 |
14 |
@CIN |
33 – 7 W |
9.2 |
54.5% / 30.0% |
6.1% / 7.5% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
7.6 / 4.1 |
55.3% / 53.8% |
31.6% / 7.7% |
6.1 / 5.4 |
71 / 53 |
58.6% / 38.5% |
54.9% / 35.8% |
43.6% / 33.3% |
6.8 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 1.9% |
53.5% / 24.5% |
30.9 / 23.5 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
ARI |
35 – 23 W |
-2.7 |
47.6% / 42.9% |
2.4% / 2.0% |
2.4% / 6.3% |
6.8 / 5.4 |
35.7% / 38.9% |
21.4% / 16.7% |
3.0 / 2.5 |
70 / 67 |
42.3% / 41.2% |
42.9% / 41.8% |
27.4% / 29.4% |
5.3 / 4.6 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
40.0% / 26.9% |
36.6 / 28.5 |
2 |
@NYG |
24 – 10 W |
7.5 |
33.3% / 37.8% |
12.5% / 13.5% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
5.0 / 5.6 |
43.8% / 38.9% |
34.4% / 27.8% |
4.3 / 3.4 |
56 / 55 |
37.5% / 41.5% |
39.3% / 38.2% |
42.4% / 30.0% |
4.6 / 4.9 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
57.1% / 32.7% |
37.4 / 24.3 |
3 |
ATL |
26 – 30 L |
-6.3 |
40.4% / 48.6% |
4.3% / 5.4% |
0.0% / 8.6% |
5.4 / 7.5 |
31.6% / 48.3% |
26.3% / 13.8% |
3.7 / 5.2 |
66 / 66 |
41.5% / 50.9% |
37.9% / 48.5% |
31.8% / 34.7% |
4.9 / 6.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.8% / 43.9% |
29.7 / 27.8 |
4 |
@MIN |
14 – 7 W |
2.8 |
40.5% / 40.6% |
16.2% / 6.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.2 / 6.2 |
32.4% / 63.6% |
29.4% / 9.1% |
2.9 / 4.0 |
71 / 54 |
43.4% / 55.8% |
36.6% / 50.0% |
31.1% / 42.3% |
3.6 / 5.3 |
0.0% / 5.6% |
47.9% / 40.7% |
30.0 / 25.2 |
5 |
CAR |
24 – 27 L |
-6.3 |
51.2% / 50.0% |
14.6% / 8.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 9.3 |
40.0% / 17.6% |
40.0% / 32.4% |
3.3 / 0.9 |
56 / 70 |
52.4% / 37.0% |
48.2% / 34.3% |
53.7% / 53.7% |
4.3 / 5.2 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
26.8% / 48.6% |
29.8 / 31.7 |
6 |
@NO |
38 – 52 L |
-15.8 |
35.1% / 45.2% |
8.8% / 0.0% |
5.8% / 6.5% |
4.9 / 6.0 |
15.8% / 45.9% |
36.8% / 13.5% |
3.5 / 5.2 |
76 / 68 |
24.6% / 50.9% |
30.3% / 45.6% |
53.3% / 51.7% |
4.6 / 5.6 |
2.6% / 1.5% |
25.0% / 54.4% |
27.6 / 29.4 |
8 |
PIT |
15 – 20 L |
-1.9 |
48.9% / 41.9% |
4.3% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 3.2% |
8.7 / 10.2 |
50.0% / 41.9% |
27.3% / 22.6% |
3.2 / 2.5 |
69 / 62 |
58.2% / 41.9% |
49.3% / 41.9% |
58.1% / 53.2% |
7.0 / 6.4 |
1.4% / 1.6% |
31.9% / 50.0% |
22.8 / 24.8 |
9 |
@GB |
30 – 17 W |
9.8 |
64.7% / 43.9% |
2.9% / 7.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
10.4 / 5.7 |
24.2% / 70.6% |
45.5% / 11.8% |
1.9 / 4.6 |
67 / 58 |
40.7% / 59.6% |
44.8% / 51.7% |
43.2% / 25.4% |
6.2 / 5.4 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 29.3% |
32.5 / 25.8 |
10 |
CLE |
38 – 24 W |
0.7 |
36.7% / 29.5% |
13.3% / 9.1% |
3.8% / 2.5% |
8.0 / 4.8 |
42.9% / 60.6% |
28.6% / 30.3% |
5.0 / 6.1 |
51 / 77 |
41.7% / 41.4% |
39.2% / 42.9% |
73.8% / 48.9% |
6.8 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
41.2% / 42.9% |
28.8 / 28.4 |
11 |
@CHI |
27 – 24 W |
-0.0 |
52.9% / 48.4% |
8.8% / 3.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.4 / 5.7 |
40.0% / 60.0% |
40.0% / 13.3% |
2.6 / 7.4 |
59 / 61 |
53.2% / 56.9% |
47.5% / 54.1% |
39.4% / 45.5% |
6.0 / 6.5 |
1.7% / 1.6% |
42.4% / 49.2% |
24.0 / 23.9 |
12 |
MIN |
23 – 30 L |
-9.0 |
34.2% / 59.4% |
7.9% / 6.3% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
6.2 / 8.5 |
46.7% / 35.6% |
20.0% / 31.1% |
3.5 / 3.1 |
53 / 77 |
41.5% / 50.9% |
37.7% / 45.5% |
47.4% / 50.4% |
5.5 / 5.3 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
28.3% / 58.4% |
29.2 / 32.1 |
13 |
@BAL |
20 – 44 L |
-9.9 |
48.6% / 55.6% |
8.1% / 0.0% |
5.9% / 0.0% |
7.9 / 7.5 |
20.8% / 46.4% |
37.5% / 28.6% |
3.3 / 3.6 |
61 / 64 |
39.6% / 56.0% |
37.7% / 51.6% |
60.8% / 38.8% |
6.1 / 5.8 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
39.3% / 43.8% |
23.2 / 36.6 |
14 |
@TB |
24 – 21 W |
4.8 |
61.4% / 58.5% |
0.0% / 7.3% |
4.5% / 5.3% |
8.7 / 6.5 |
33.3% / 62.1% |
38.9% / 13.8% |
2.9 / 4.6 |
62 / 70 |
54.9% / 63.3% |
53.2% / 60.0% |
34.8% / 25.4% |
7.0 / 5.7 |
1.6% / 4.3% |
29.0% / 41.4% |
30.4 / 22.2 |