Game Analysis

Lean – CINCINNATI (+3) over Chicago

• Chicago’s defense was without all three starting cornerbacks last week and surrendered 7.4 yards per pass play to Ravens’ backup QB Tyler Huntley. Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon are likely out again this week, while Tyrique Stevenson has a shot to suit up. The backups will struggle against a Bengals’ offense that is targeting wide receivers on a league-high 72.0% of passes since Joe Flacco took over in week 6.
• The Bengals’ defense is dealing with an injury problem of its own, as edge rusher Trey Hendrickson has only 49 snaps since the start of week 6.
• Cincinnati’s defense is surrendering a league-high 0.28 EPA/play in the last three games. Hendrickson is worth 2 points according to our numbers.
• Chicago’s offense is 3rd in run play rate over expectation since flipping left tackle from Braxton Jones to Theo Benedet in week 6, and the ground game has a favorable matchup as the Bengals are surrendering 0.08 EPA/rush (31st).
• Our model favors the Bears by 2.6 points, with a predicted total of 51.0 points, and I’ll lean with Cincinnati based on an 81-33-3 ATS situation.