Game Analysis
BALTIMORE (-6.5) vs Chicago
Chicago should’ve beaten Minnesota on Monday night – the Bears outgained the Vikings in yards per play but Chicago’s two turnovers set Minnesota’s offense up with very short fields, including the last-minute game-winning field goal. Thus far, the Bears defense is actually producing fewer takeaways per game than their worst in the league (0.7/game) number last season. I have the Bears defensive quality rated around average and I expect their defense to produce more turnovers moving forward.
Rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky had his moments but overall his numbers were underwhelming – albeit against a good defense. Trubisky may struggle again versus a Baltimore defense that ranks 8th against the pass but I expect the Bears to use their 3rd ranked running game to attack a soft Ravens’ defensive front that is 7th worst defending the run according to my metrics. Chicago is better than they appear, as the Bears’ league worst -9 turnover margin has greatly affected their scoring margin. However, the line on this game looks fair and I have no opinion.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.0
34.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
39.4%
47.5%
-
Sack Rate
5.2%
7.5%
-
Int Rate
3.8%
0.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
10.9%
16.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
16.2%
33.0%
-
NYPP
5.1
6.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.4
26.8
-
RB YPR
4.2
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
25.8%
14.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.1%
43.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.7%
27.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
61.4
61.2
-
Early Down Succ
42.4%
46.0%
-
Succ Rate
41.7%
44.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
30.7%
34.9%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.9%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.5
29.6
-
Run Ratio
43.2%
43.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.6
30.0
-
Game Control
-6.8
6.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.0
34.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
39.4%
38.5%
-
Sack Rate
5.2%
6.8%
-
Int Rate
4.1%
5.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
11.6%
20.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
24.9%
40.5%
-
NYPP
5.2
5.9
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.6
29.8
-
RB YPR
4.4
4.0
-
Stuff Rate
24.5%
20.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.7%
41.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
52.2%
44.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.4
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
63.6
64.6
-
Early Down Succ
46.6%
41.6%
-
Succ Rate
43.5%
39.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.6%
43.0%
-
Yards Per Play
4.5
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.7
27.6
-
Run Ratio
49.8%
45.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.5
29.5
-
Game Control
-0.0
0.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
ATL |
17 – 23 L |
-2.5 |
31.8% /
50.0% |
9.1% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
9.6 |
52.6% /
32.0% |
15.8% /
24.0% |
6.6 /
2.6 |
63 /
57 |
37.5% /
45.2% |
38.1% /
42.1% |
31.2% /
49.7% |
4.8 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.2% /
43.9% |
28.1 /
18.3 |
| 2 |
@TB |
7 – 29 L |
-18.1 |
56.5% /
48.5% |
2.2% /
6.1% |
4.4% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
5.9 |
25.0% /
36.1% |
43.8% /
11.1% |
1.3 /
3.3 |
62 /
69 |
50.0% /
41.2% |
48.4% /
42.0% |
6.5% /
14.4% |
5.0 /
4.5 |
3.2% /
1.4% |
25.8% /
52.2% |
27.0 /
31.1 |
| 3 |
PIT |
23 – 17 W |
4.4 |
33.3% /
47.6% |
8.3% /
7.1% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
3.5 /
5.0 |
44.7% /
64.7% |
28.9% /
5.9% |
5.8 /
4.1 |
62 /
59 |
42.0% /
56.3% |
40.3% /
52.5% |
55.3% /
29.4% |
4.9 /
4.8 |
1.6% /
3.4% |
61.3% /
28.8% |
32.7 /
36.4 |
| 4 |
@GB |
14 – 35 L |
-16.9 |
38.2% /
41.4% |
2.9% /
6.9% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
5.8 |
40.0% /
48.0% |
26.7% /
4.0% |
3.4 /
3.7 |
64 /
54 |
36.0% /
43.2% |
39.1% /
44.4% |
25.6% /
50.6% |
4.8 /
4.8 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
46.9% /
46.3% |
28.5 /
33.5 |
| 5 |
MIN |
17 – 20 L |
-0.9 |
37.0% /
50.0% |
3.7% /
11.1% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
3.9 |
48.3% /
35.5% |
13.8% /
25.8% |
4.0 /
5.1 |
56 /
67 |
46.5% /
44.2% |
42.9% /
43.3% |
34.7% /
30.3% |
4.9 /
4.5 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
51.8% /
46.3% |
26.6 /
30.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@CIN |
20 – 0 W |
11.0 |
27.8% /
30.6% |
5.6% /
13.9% |
5.9% /
12.9% |
6.2 /
4.0 |
45.2% /
36.4% |
19.0% /
22.7% |
3.7 /
3.5 |
60 /
58 |
39.1% /
34.1% |
40.0% /
32.8% |
32.1% /
45.7% |
4.5 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
70.0% /
37.9% |
32.2 /
30.8 |
| 2 |
CLE |
24 – 10 W |
9.4 |
50.0% /
31.1% |
5.6% /
6.7% |
2.9% /
9.5% |
5.6 /
6.5 |
36.4% /
38.1% |
27.3% /
23.8% |
4.2 /
4.4 |
69 /
66 |
47.3% /
36.5% |
43.5% /
33.3% |
39.9% /
67.1% |
4.9 /
5.8 |
1.4% /
1.5% |
47.8% /
31.8% |
33.9 /
22.3 |
| 3 |
@JAC |
7 – 44 L |
-23.9 |
24.1% /
54.5% |
6.9% /
0.0% |
7.4% /
0.0% |
1.8 /
7.4 |
56.0% /
31.6% |
20.0% /
10.5% |
5.4 /
4.4 |
54 /
71 |
42.9% /
48.1% |
38.9% /
42.3% |
39.2% /
35.8% |
3.4 /
5.8 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
46.3% /
53.5% |
24.1 /
38.5 |
| 4 |
PIT |
9 – 26 L |
-8.6 |
52.9% /
41.9% |
7.8% /
3.2% |
4.3% /
3.3% |
4.0 /
6.7 |
46.7% /
46.5% |
46.7% /
23.3% |
5.5 /
4.0 |
66 /
74 |
56.9% /
45.6% |
51.5% /
44.6% |
25.3% /
26.4% |
4.4 /
5.2 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
22.7% /
58.1% |
28.5 /
31.1 |
| 5 |
@OAK |
30 – 17 W |
11.8 |
42.3% /
34.5% |
0.0% /
10.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.5 /
4.7 |
44.2% /
56.0% |
9.3% /
24.0% |
3.4 /
4.3 |
69 /
54 |
46.9% /
43.9% |
43.5% /
44.4% |
46.5% /
40.0% |
5.3 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
62.3% /
46.3% |
34.0 /
24.9 |
Chicago Bears
@ 
Baltimore Ravens