Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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ATLANTA (-3.5/-3) vs Chicago

Mitch Trubisky has played well so far this year, confirming Matt Nagy’s decision to give him the starting job over Nick Foles. Trubisky completed 64% of his passes last week, but he had two key passes on 3rd down dropped, one of which could’ve been a touchdown. Atlanta’s pass defense ranks 28th in our numbers and Trubisky once again won’t be tested after facing the Lions and Giants in the opening weeks of the season.

The Falcons are scoring 32 points per game, but I expect them to struggle moving the ball against this Bears defense. Khalil Mack has 12 pressures thus far (5th) and Atlanta will be playing without starting RT Kaleb McGary. Chicago’s cornerbacks also will provide the first real test for a Falcons WR corps averaging 290 receiving yards per game. Rookie cornerback Jaylon Johnson has four pass breakups while allowing only 42% of his targets in coverage to be caught by the receiver. Cornerback Kyle Fuller ranks 13th in yards allowed per cover snap and nickelback Buster Skrine is surrendering only one reception per 8.3 cover snaps in the slot.

Our model makes Atlanta a 4.8-point favorite with a predicted total of 48.7 points but the Falcons apply to a 21-57-3 ATS week 3 situation.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bears
Falcons

CHI

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 34.5 43.5
Succ Pass Plays 46.4% 47.2%
Sack Rate 7.6% 5.7%
Int Rate 3.6% 2.4%
Deep Pass Rate 27.8% 13.8%
Big Pass Yards 24.9% 36.4%
NYPP 5.5 5.8

Rush

Rush Plays 30.0 23.5
RB YPR 4.6 4.2
Stuff Rate 16.5% 18.0%
Succ Rush Plays 50.7% 47.4%
Big Rush Yards 44.2% 53.0%
Yards Per Rush 4.8 4.5

Game

All Snaps 64.5 67.0
Early Down Succ 49.0% 51.4%
Succ Rate 48.0% 46.9%
Big Yards Rate 33.4% 41.4%
Yards Per Play 5.2 5.3
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.6 25.3
Run Ratio 46.5% 34.7%
Starting Field Pos 29.1 28.1
Game Control 1.6 -1.6

Points 22.0 18.0

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DET	27 – 23 W	-5.9	45.9% / 51.2%	2.7% / 2.3%	0.0% / 2.4%	5.8 / 6.7	60.7% / 44.8%	14.3% / 13.8%	5.3 / 4.8	65 / 72	59.6% / 52.7%	52.3% / 48.6%	35.8% / 50.2%	5.6 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	43.1% / 40.3%	29.0 / 27.0
2	NYG	17 – 13 W	9.1	46.9% / 43.2%	12.5% / 9.1%	7.1% / 2.5%	5.3 / 5.0	40.6% / 50.0%	18.8% / 22.2%	4.2 / 4.2	64 / 62	38.3% / 50.0%	43.8% / 45.2%	30.9% / 32.5%	4.8 / 4.8	0.0% / 1.6%	50.0% / 29.0%	29.1 / 29.2

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SEA	25 – 38 L	-8.5	50.0% / 57.9%	3.6% / 7.9%	1.9% / 0.0%	7.8 / 7.9	47.6% / 55.0%	23.8% / 15.0%	3.4 / 4.2	77 / 58	50.8% / 61.7%	49.4% / 56.9%	35.6% / 38.1%	6.6 / 6.6	1.3% / 0.0%	27.3% / 34.5%	24.7 / 31.3
2	@DAL	39 – 40 L	12.6	44.7% / 58.0%	2.6% / 2.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.0 / 8.9	47.1% / 64.5%	17.6% / 12.9%	3.3 / 4.0	72 / 81	43.4% / 63.1%	45.8% / 60.5%	38.2% / 46.1%	5.3 / 7.0	0.0% / 3.7%	47.2% / 38.3%	40.8 / 24.4

Chicago Bears @

Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Sep 27

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis