Game Analysis

Note: The line has moved up to -3 but Tampa Bay is still a Best Bet at -3 -110 or better (Strong Opinion at -3 -115).

1-Star Best Bet – *TAMPA BAY (-2.5 -115) over Carolina

• Atlanta’s win last Monday night keeps this game from being a winner-take-all contest, but that should not affect the motivation on either side.
• Carolina makes the postseason with a win.
• Tampa Bay makes the playoffs with a win, plus New Orleans beating Atlanta.
• We thought the Buccaneers -2.5 had value in week 16 over the Panthers. Both teams had a 43% success rate, and Carolina won because Baker Mayfield threw an interception in Panthers territory on the potential game-winning/tying drive. The bet could’ve gone either way in week 16, and there hasn’t been a material change. The Buccaneers have value again in this game.
• The Buccaneers will be without starting cornerback Jamel Dean for this game, but the loss, plus the extra vigorish we’re paying compared to Week 16, is more than offset by the flip in homefield advantage, which is worth 6.5 percentage points of win probability within the division, according to our metrics.
• The Panthers have an 85% zone-coverage rate (2nd-highest), and they will struggle against Baker Mayfield, who is averaging a league-high 24% more yards per attempt versus zone compared to man-coverage.
• Carolina’s offense has the 6th-highest run rate adjusted for the situation, and they will be shut down as Tampa Bay’s defense is allowing only a 36.8% rush success rate (5th).
• Carolina is 12-0 ATS in their last 12 as an underdog following a loss but Tampa Bay applies to an 82-34-3 ATS situation and a 53-16-1 ATS division revenge angle.
• The Bucs have been just 1-7 straight up and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games but teams that have lost 8 or more in a row to the spread are 12-0-1 ATS from +6.5 to favorite.
• Our model favors the Buccaneers by 6.1 points, with a predicted total of 44.3 points.

Tampa Bay is a 1-Star Best Bet at -3 -110 or less (Strong Opinion at -3 -115).