Game Analysis

Lean – Carolina (+5.5) over TAMPA BAY

· The Panthers are 30-63 with David Tepper as the owner and Chris Tabor will be the 6th different head coach in the Tepper era after they fired Frank Reich.

· I do not believe firing Reich will solve the problems with the offense, but the Panthers could rebound this week in a favorable matchup. Carolina wants defenses to increase variance because they don’t have the skill position talent to beat basic coverages and they are averaging 21% more yards per attempt versus the blitz than a standard pass rush (3rd-largest gap).

· Tampa Bay’s defense has a 46.8% blitz rate (3rd-highest) and could surrender some explosive passes Bryce Young wouldn’t have gotten against a defense that doesn’t send extra pass rushers.

· The Panthers rank 29th in pass blocking efficiency and it could get worse after guards Chandler Zavala and Cade Mays both went down against the Titans. Carolina already released guard Calvin Throckmorton and guard Austin Corbett is out for the season due to a knee injury. Buccaneers’ interior defenders Calijah Kancey and Vita Vea rank 14th and 21st respectively in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Baker Mayfield has a favorable matchup as the Panthers blitz a lot in zone coverage. Mayfield’s yards per attempt versus zone coverage is 51% more than his yards per attempt against man (3rd-largest gap) and his yards per attempt versus the blitz is 25% more than a standard pass rush (3rd-largest gap). Carolina’s defense has an 88.0% zone coverage rate (2nd-highest) and a 42.5% blitz rate (5th-highest).

· The Panthers should be getting starting CB Jaycee Horn back on the field as well as safety Jeremy Chinn but other starting safety Vonn Bell had a shoulder injury in the second quarter last week and he could be sidelined.

· Teams are 15-10 ATS in the first game after firing a head coach since 2010 and Carolina applies to a 167-74-3 ATS contrary situation.

· Our model favors the Buccaneers by 6.5 points, with a predicted total of 37.0 points, but the situation is strongly in favor of the Panthers.