Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – TAMPA BAY (-3 -120) over Carolina

· This number has come down from Tampa Bay -7 at the open because people are ready to finally bury the Bucs, but the spread will start to climb back up after accessing the availability for both these rosters. It looks like the Buccaneers will be getting a ton of players back while the Panthers are their best piece in the secondary.

· Tampa Bay’s best cornerback and best pass rusher have both missed the last two games, but they should be back in uniform this week. Cornerback Jamel Dean ranks 11th in coverage grade by PFF and interior defender Vita Vea ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency. Dean and Vea are worth about a point and a half.

· Buccaneers right tackle Tristan Wirfs reaggravated an ankle injury versus the Cardinals and it initially looked like he was going to miss more time, but now he’s trending towards suiting up this week. Tampa Bay left tackle Donovan Smith missed the last game but he will likely be back on Sunday.

· Wirfs leads the NFL in pass blocking efficiency and is worth 2 points. Smith’s return is vital because Tampa Bay’s backup tackle Josh Wells left in the first half on Christmas with a season-ending knee injury.

· Tampa Bay’s offense only had 3 points until the fourth quarter in Arizona, but the offensive line will get both starting tackles back on the field which will make a huge difference for Tom Brady.

· Brady was consistently just checking down behind all the backups up front and hitting his running back Leonard Fournette, who had 90 receiving yards last week. However, Fournette won’t be able to repeat against a Panthers defense conceding only 4.7 yards per target to opposing running backs (4th).

· Carolina cornerback Jaycee Horn had wrist surgery earlier this week and he ranks 17th in coverage grade by PFF. Mike Evans has 23 targets with 20+ air yards and he will win some battles downfield across from backup CB Keith Taylor.

· The Panthers don’t really trust Sam Darnold and last week they didn’t need the quarterback. Carolina finished with 320 rushing yards on the day against the Lions, but the Buccaneers are allowing only a 40% success rate on the ground (10th) and Darnold might actually have to make a play or two.

· Tampa Bay’s defense has a 7.5% sack rate (8th) but the Panthers should be able to pick up the pass rush with an offensive line ranked 3rd in pass blocking efficiency.

· Our model favors the Buccaneers by 6.0 points with a predicted total of 40.4 points.

Tampa Bay is a Strong Opinion at -3.5 or less.