Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Carolina (+6 -105) over SEATTLE

· Bryce Young has only a 38% dropback success rate (29th) to start his career and he’s had a league-low 3.5 yppp through two games. We made this play assuming he’d play but veteran Andy Dalton is now expected to start, which is an upgrade given that Dalton averaged 5.4 yppp in his worst NFL season and averaged 6.7 yppp as a starter in New Orleans last year (8th best in the league).

· Carolina’s offense faced two aggressive Cover 2 Man defenses to start the season as Atlanta’s defensive coordinator worked under New Orleans head coach Dennis Allen last year. The Panthers’ mediocre wide receiving group couldn’t separate for Young, who is one of two quarterbacks with less than 40% of his throws into open windows.

· Seattle’s defense only has a 17% man coverage rate (25th) and Carolina’s coaching staff should be able to scheme more receivers open this week. The Seahawks are allowing opponents to move the chains on 79% of opportunities (30th).

· Carolina’s offense has only a 36% success rate when targeting RB Miles Sanders but he should be more efficient in this game as Seattle’s defense surrendered a league-high 6.9 yards per target to running backs in 2022.

· Geno Smith has a 56% pass success rate (3rd) which will drop on Sunday facing his first top 25 defense of the season. Panthers’ new DC Ejiro Evero’s defense is allowing -0.07 EPA/dropback (10th) as they are rotating safeties post-snap at a league-high 49% rate.

· Carolina’s loss of LB Shaq Thompson is not major due to the depth they have in the back seven. Evero can use Troy Hill as a full-time nickelback freeing up 6’3″, 220lb safety Jeremy Chinn to play alongside LB Frankie Luvu in the box. Chinn has already gotten 42% of his snaps in the box this season.

· Seattle’s backup tackles Jake Curhan and Stone Forsythe combined to surrender a 32% pressure rate on true pass-blocking sets last week. Geno Smith will be running for his life as Panthers’ edge defender Brian Burns already has 2 sacks (12th) and Carolina’s other edge defender Justin Houston ranks 20th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Our model favors the Seahawks by only 3.0 points, with a predicted total of 42.8 points, and Seattle applies to a very negative 29-98-1 ATS situation that plays against favorites playing bad defense.

Carolina is a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 or more and 1-Star down to +5.