Game Analysis
Riverboat Ron seems to have used all his luck last year, as seemingly the high-leverage situations and bounces of the oblong ball seem to go against the Panthers this year in stark contrast to last year. The Panthers actually have a positive Game Control rating and a positive yards per play differential, yet have a losing record and sit at the bottom of the high-scoring NFC South at 4-7. The Panthers team is still capable of putting up points with anyone, as the biggest differences offensively from last year have been Cam’s TD rate has been cut in half from last year’s MVP 7.1% of all throws as TDs to now the lowest of his career of 3.8%, a team turnover differential that was +20 last year, currently through 11 games sits at -5. While both of those stats are descriptive of what has occurred so far this season, neither is predictive of what will happen going forward (for reference Tom Brady’s TD percentage the past 10 years has been as high as 8.7% and as low as 4.0% in full 16 game seasons). The Seahawks are the ultimate team of styles this year, as their 7 best defensive performances they have held teams to an average of 13 points, in the other 4 games they have allowed an average 25 points per game with not 1 opponent falling with a score in the typical range of 18-24 (8% chance of happening). The Carolina team averages 51 points per contest and have been able to turn many games into shootouts. The advanced stats model sees value on the road dog and Over, so Panthers (+7) and OVER (44.5) are Strong Opinions.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.6
40.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.8%
49.9%
-
Sack Rate
6.4%
6.9%
-
Int Rate
3.1%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.2%
16.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.7%
33.2%
-
NYPP
6.6
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.1
25.5
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.2
-
Stuff Rate
22.0%
24.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.7%
39.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.2%
34.2%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
3.2
Game
-
All Snaps
65.7
66.5
-
Early Down Succ
46.8%
49.1%
-
Succ Rate
45.5%
45.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.0%
35.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.4
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.4
26.2
-
Run Ratio
42.9%
38.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.1
27.2
-
Game Control
2.0
-2.0
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.7
38.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.1%
44.7%
-
Sack Rate
6.5%
6.7%
-
Int Rate
1.3%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.8%
20.6%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.3%
35.8%
-
NYPP
7.0
6.2
Rush
-
Rush Plays
25.5
29.0
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
25.8%
22.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.1%
44.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
34.4%
27.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.5
3.4
Game
-
All Snaps
62.2
67.5
-
Early Down Succ
50.9%
45.7%
-
Succ Rate
46.1%
44.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.3%
34.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.1
28.6
-
Run Ratio
40.3%
43.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.2
27.3
-
Game Control
2.9
-2.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@DEN |
20 – 21 L |
4.1 |
41.2% / 50.0% |
8.8% / 7.1% |
3.2% / 7.7% |
5.2 / 5.7 |
68.8% / 45.2% |
9.4% / 19.4% |
4.9 / 4.8 |
66 / 59 |
52.9% / 50.0% |
54.5% / 47.5% |
12.9% / 54.7% |
5.0 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 1.7% |
48.5% / 52.5% |
26.3 / 28.9 |
2 |
SF |
46 – 27 W |
7.8 |
47.5% / 39.5% |
2.5% / 5.3% |
2.6% / 5.6% |
8.8 / 6.2 |
40.5% / 34.6% |
24.3% / 26.9% |
4.8 / 2.5 |
77 / 64 |
43.5% / 41.7% |
44.2% / 37.5% |
55.6% / 46.7% |
6.9 / 4.7 |
3.9% / 1.6% |
48.1% / 40.6% |
31.8 / 33.9 |
3 |
MIN |
10 – 22 L |
-0.7 |
34.1% / 43.3% |
18.2% / 6.7% |
8.3% / 0.0% |
4.6 / 5.1 |
46.4% / 30.8% |
7.1% / 34.6% |
3.8 / 2.3 |
72 / 56 |
41.5% / 45.0% |
38.9% / 37.5% |
41.5% / 6.6% |
4.3 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.9% / 46.4% |
24.0 / 29.9 |
4 |
@ATL |
33 – 48 L |
-11.4 |
53.1% / 57.5% |
2.0% / 7.5% |
4.2% / 2.7% |
6.7 / 12.0 |
46.7% / 37.0% |
26.7% / 33.3% |
3.3 / 3.4 |
64 / 67 |
53.2% / 50.0% |
51.6% / 49.3% |
36.0% / 63.0% |
5.9 / 8.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
23.4% / 40.3% |
23.9 / 20.9 |
5 |
TB |
14 – 17 L |
-1.6 |
64.3% / 53.1% |
0.0% / 6.3% |
7.1% / 0.0% |
9.9 / 6.3 |
68.0% / 36.8% |
12.0% / 28.9% |
5.4 / 3.0 |
53 / 70 |
72.7% / 47.2% |
66.0% / 44.3% |
52.9% / 31.3% |
7.8 / 4.5 |
3.8% / 0.0% |
47.2% / 54.3% |
23.9 / 31.1 |
6 |
@NO |
38 – 41 L |
-11.3 |
49.0% / 61.2% |
4.1% / 2.0% |
2.1% / 2.1% |
6.2 / 9.4 |
50.0% / 47.6% |
10.7% / 19.0% |
3.7 / 3.0 |
77 / 70 |
54.0% / 58.5% |
49.4% / 57.1% |
18.9% / 51.4% |
5.3 / 7.5 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
36.4% / 30.0% |
32.8 / 21.9 |
8 |
ARI |
30 – 20 W |
15.7 |
42.9% / 51.9% |
3.6% / 14.8% |
0.0% / 2.2% |
7.4 / 5.9 |
52.8% / 50.0% |
22.2% / 40.0% |
3.9 / 2.4 |
64 / 64 |
50.0% / 54.9% |
48.4% / 51.6% |
48.1% / 12.4% |
5.5 / 5.3 |
1.6% / 1.6% |
56.3% / 15.6% |
34.1 / 24.0 |
9 |
@LA |
13 – 10 W |
6.2 |
43.2% / 44.0% |
13.5% / 8.0% |
0.0% / 2.2% |
5.0 / 5.6 |
23.1% / 35.3% |
34.6% / 17.6% |
2.3 / 3.5 |
63 / 67 |
34.8% / 44.0% |
34.9% / 41.8% |
28.2% / 32.7% |
3.9 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.3% / 25.4% |
28.5 / 23.4 |
10 |
KC |
17 – 20 L |
7.9 |
47.5% / 36.6% |
5.0% / 7.3% |
2.6% / 2.6% |
6.1 / 4.0 |
36.7% / 45.0% |
26.7% / 10.0% |
3.3 / 4.6 |
70 / 61 |
43.4% / 43.8% |
42.9% / 39.3% |
29.8% / 24.2% |
4.9 / 4.2 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
42.9% / 32.8% |
20.3 / 30.6 |
11 |
NO |
23 – 20 W |
8.6 |
37.1% / 55.3% |
5.7% / 6.4% |
0.0% / 2.3% |
4.9 / 5.6 |
29.6% / 42.3% |
44.4% / 19.2% |
1.9 / 4.2 |
62 / 73 |
31.1% / 55.4% |
33.9% / 50.7% |
42.6% / 29.0% |
3.6 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
43.5% / 35.6% |
36.8 / 23.4 |
12 |
@OAK |
32 – 35 L |
-3.9 |
33.3% / 56.1% |
6.7% / 4.9% |
3.6% / 2.6% |
7.6 / 7.6 |
40.0% / 30.8% |
24.0% / 15.4% |
5.2 / 1.5 |
55 / 80 |
37.8% / 50.0% |
36.4% / 43.8% |
62.3% / 36.8% |
6.5 / 4.6 |
1.8% / 1.3% |
45.5% / 48.8% |
26.8 / 30.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
MIA |
12 – 10 W |
1.6 |
50.0% / 21.2% |
6.5% / 12.1% |
2.3% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 4.8 |
50.0% / 35.0% |
21.9% / 30.0% |
3.5 / 3.2 |
78 / 53 |
54.2% / 28.2% |
50.0% / 26.4% |
19.6% / 53.2% |
4.5 / 4.2 |
1.3% / 0.0% |
41.0% / 37.7% |
22.5 / 32.1 |
2 |
@LA |
3 – 9 L |
-2.9 |
37.8% / 39.4% |
5.4% / 9.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.5 / 6.6 |
33.3% / 29.6% |
45.8% / 25.9% |
2.8 / 2.4 |
61 / 60 |
37.5% / 40.9% |
36.1% / 35.0% |
44.8% / 41.4% |
5.0 / 4.8 |
3.3% / 0.0% |
39.3% / 45.0% |
17.0 / 23.7 |
3 |
SF |
37 – 18 W |
19.7 |
50.0% / 28.0% |
5.9% / 0.0% |
3.1% / 4.0% |
8.6 / 4.8 |
36.4% / 38.7% |
27.3% / 16.1% |
3.9 / 4.4 |
67 / 56 |
40.0% / 35.0% |
43.3% / 33.9% |
49.9% / 25.2% |
6.3 / 4.5 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
49.3% / 55.4% |
35.1 / 33.6 |
4 |
@NYJ |
27 – 17 W |
5.2 |
61.8% / 40.0% |
5.9% / 8.9% |
0.0% / 7.3% |
8.5 / 5.5 |
31.0% / 30.0% |
31.0% / 25.0% |
2.4 / 2.9 |
63 / 65 |
57.4% / 32.7% |
47.6% / 36.9% |
56.3% / 16.7% |
5.7 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
46.0% / 30.8% |
32.8 / 20.3 |
6 |
ATL |
26 – 24 W |
2.4 |
60.5% / 45.7% |
2.6% / 8.7% |
0.0% / 2.4% |
6.9 / 6.7 |
41.9% / 44.4% |
16.1% / 22.2% |
2.4 / 2.9 |
69 / 64 |
63.3% / 49.0% |
52.2% / 45.3% |
20.8% / 40.9% |
4.9 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
44.9% / 28.1% |
37.4 / 21.0 |
7 |
@ARI |
6 – 6 T |
-1.7 |
34.2% / 43.4% |
2.6% / 7.5% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 5.9 |
36.8% / 54.1% |
31.6% / 24.3% |
2.7 / 3.6 |
57 / 90 |
39.5% / 47.8% |
35.1% / 47.8% |
26.5% / 33.4% |
4.5 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
33.3% / 41.1% |
25.1 / 28.5 |
8 |
@NO |
20 – 25 L |
2.7 |
48.6% / 62.2% |
2.9% / 5.4% |
2.9% / 0.0% |
8.1 / 6.8 |
76.5% / 40.0% |
17.6% / 14.3% |
4.4 / 3.5 |
52 / 72 |
61.0% / 49.1% |
57.7% / 51.4% |
35.1% / 28.8% |
6.9 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
32.7% / 48.6% |
27.1 / 26.9 |
9 |
BUF |
31 – 25 W |
4.1 |
63.3% / 55.8% |
13.3% / 11.6% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
8.2 / 6.1 |
38.5% / 57.9% |
38.5% / 15.8% |
2.6 / 4.3 |
43 / 81 |
64.7% / 54.0% |
55.8% / 56.8% |
29.7% / 30.6% |
6.5 / 5.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.2% / 46.9% |
30.6 / 31.4 |
10 |
@NE |
31 – 24 W |
1.0 |
57.5% / 55.9% |
7.5% / 5.9% |
0.0% / 3.1% |
8.1 / 8.9 |
46.2% / 53.6% |
19.2% / 28.6% |
3.7 / 2.9 |
66 / 62 |
53.7% / 54.9% |
53.0% / 54.8% |
39.8% / 44.2% |
6.4 / 6.2 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
39.4% / 45.2% |
28.5 / 26.1 |
11 |
PHI |
26 – 15 W |
9.7 |
45.5% / 46.8% |
3.0% / 4.3% |
0.0% / 4.4% |
8.7 / 4.1 |
29.4% / 61.5% |
20.6% / 23.1% |
4.6 / 4.3 |
67 / 73 |
43.5% / 57.4% |
37.3% / 52.1% |
57.2% / 30.5% |
6.6 / 4.2 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
50.7% / 35.6% |
32.4 / 23.4 |
12 |
@TB |
5 – 14 L |
-10.5 |
30.8% / 53.6% |
15.4% / 0.0% |
6.1% / 3.6% |
3.0 / 7.9 |
54.5% / 41.0% |
13.6% / 17.9% |
5.8 / 3.1 |
61 / 67 |
44.9% / 54.0% |
39.3% / 46.3% |
30.6% / 31.4% |
4.0 / 5.1 |
1.6% / 1.5% |
36.1% / 58.2% |
21.5 / 33.2 |