Game Analysis
Strong Opinion – SAN FRANCISCO (+6) over Carolina
The Panthers’ regression last season from the 2015 Super Bowl runner-up team was startling. Carolina went from 1st in EPA/play in 2015 to 25th in 2016, and the difference might’ve been even larger than EPA suggests. Last season the Panthers had +22 points of turnover luck, +21 points of Redzone luck, and +19 points of 3rd-down luck. Cam Newton only completed 53% of his passes and had a slightly negative EPA/pass play. No one expected Carolina to go 15-1 again, but their steep backslide last season was puzzling and makes projecting this season more difficult.
The 49ers had a huge off-season after only winning 2 games in 2016. The Chip Kelly era ended as they brought in John Lynch to run the team and Kyle Shanahan to coach it and overhauled about half of their roster. Arguably the most important signing is their new quarterback: the underrated Brian Hoyer, who finished with +0.21 EPA/pass play (7th in NFL, min 200 attempts) last season with Chicago.
The Niners defense finished 30th last season in EPA/play but they were historically unlucky in the Redzone. San Francisco gave up 59 more points in the Redzone than a defense of their quality should’ve been expected to concede – the worst luck of any Redzone defense since 2000. The 49ers’ offense should improve this season with the new head coach & quarterback combo and their defense should certainly give up fewer points in the Redzone.
The model likes San Francisco but the extreme variance based on Carolina’s wide-ranging projection makes this game a strong opinion rather than a Best Bet. I’ll consider the 49ers a strong opinion at +5 or higher.
Note: We released this game early last week when the line was +6 and it has moved down a bit.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.2
41.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
42.5%
48.4%
-
Sack Rate
5.9%
7.2%
-
Int Rate
3.4%
2.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.6%
16.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
40.8%
36.3%
-
NYPP
6.3
6.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.6
24.6
-
RB YPR
3.8
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
23.9%
24.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.4%
40.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
42.2%
41.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
65.8
65.8
-
Early Down Succ
44.9%
48.5%
-
Succ Rate
43.4%
45.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.8%
39.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
5.5
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.0%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.2
26.6
-
Run Ratio
43.5%
37.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.1
27.3
-
Game Control
0.8
-0.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.6
34.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
40.1%
47.6%
-
Sack Rate
9.2%
6.1%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.6%
20.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.5%
45.8%
-
NYPP
5.3
7.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.3
35.8
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.4
-
Stuff Rate
25.4%
20.9%
-
Succ Rush Plays
46.6%
44.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.7%
48.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.5
4.5
Game
-
All Snaps
62.9
70.3
-
Early Down Succ
46.6%
48.2%
-
Succ Rate
43.4%
46.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.4%
46.9%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
5.7
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.5%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
25.8
28.7
-
Run Ratio
46.6%
50.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.1
31.1
-
Game Control
-4.5
4.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@DEN |
20 – 21 L |
4.1 |
41.2% /
50.0% |
8.8% /
7.1% |
3.2% /
7.7% |
5.2 /
5.7 |
68.8% /
45.2% |
9.4% /
19.4% |
4.9 /
4.8 |
66 /
59 |
52.9% /
50.0% |
54.5% /
47.5% |
12.9% /
54.7% |
5.0 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
48.5% /
52.5% |
26.3 /
28.9 |
| 2 |
SF |
46 – 27 W |
7.8 |
47.5% /
39.5% |
2.5% /
5.3% |
2.6% /
5.6% |
8.8 /
6.2 |
40.5% /
34.6% |
24.3% /
26.9% |
4.8 /
2.5 |
77 /
64 |
43.5% /
41.7% |
44.2% /
37.5% |
55.6% /
46.7% |
6.9 /
4.7 |
3.9% /
1.6% |
48.1% /
40.6% |
31.8 /
33.9 |
| 3 |
MIN |
10 – 22 L |
-0.7 |
34.1% /
43.3% |
18.2% /
6.7% |
8.3% /
0.0% |
4.6 /
5.1 |
46.4% /
30.8% |
7.1% /
34.6% |
3.8 /
2.3 |
72 /
56 |
41.5% /
45.0% |
38.9% /
37.5% |
41.5% /
6.6% |
4.3 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
38.9% /
46.4% |
24.0 /
29.9 |
| 4 |
@ATL |
33 – 48 L |
-11.4 |
53.1% /
57.5% |
2.0% /
7.5% |
4.2% /
2.7% |
6.7 /
12.0 |
46.7% /
37.0% |
26.7% /
33.3% |
3.3 /
3.4 |
64 /
67 |
53.2% /
50.0% |
51.6% /
49.3% |
36.0% /
63.0% |
5.9 /
8.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
23.4% /
40.3% |
23.9 /
20.9 |
| 5 |
TB |
14 – 17 L |
-1.6 |
64.3% /
53.1% |
0.0% /
6.3% |
7.1% /
0.0% |
9.9 /
6.3 |
68.0% /
36.8% |
12.0% /
28.9% |
5.4 /
3.0 |
53 /
70 |
72.7% /
47.2% |
66.0% /
44.3% |
52.9% /
31.3% |
7.8 /
4.5 |
3.8% /
0.0% |
47.2% /
54.3% |
23.9 /
31.1 |
| 6 |
@NO |
38 – 41 L |
-11.3 |
49.0% /
61.2% |
4.1% /
2.0% |
2.1% /
2.1% |
6.2 /
9.4 |
50.0% /
47.6% |
10.7% /
19.0% |
3.7 /
3.0 |
77 /
70 |
54.0% /
58.5% |
49.4% /
57.1% |
18.9% /
51.4% |
5.3 /
7.5 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
36.4% /
30.0% |
32.8 /
21.9 |
| 8 |
ARI |
30 – 20 W |
15.7 |
42.9% /
51.9% |
3.6% /
14.8% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
7.4 /
5.9 |
52.8% /
50.0% |
22.2% /
40.0% |
3.9 /
2.4 |
64 /
64 |
50.0% /
54.9% |
48.4% /
51.6% |
48.1% /
12.4% |
5.5 /
5.3 |
1.6% /
1.6% |
56.3% /
15.6% |
34.1 /
24.0 |
| 9 |
@LA |
13 – 10 W |
6.2 |
43.2% /
44.0% |
13.5% /
8.0% |
0.0% /
2.2% |
5.0 /
5.6 |
23.1% /
35.3% |
34.6% /
17.6% |
2.3 /
3.5 |
63 /
67 |
34.8% /
44.0% |
34.9% /
41.8% |
28.2% /
32.7% |
3.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.3% /
25.4% |
28.5 /
23.4 |
| 10 |
KC |
17 – 20 L |
7.9 |
47.5% /
36.6% |
5.0% /
7.3% |
2.6% /
2.6% |
6.1 /
4.0 |
36.7% /
45.0% |
26.7% /
10.0% |
3.3 /
4.6 |
70 /
61 |
43.4% /
43.8% |
42.9% /
39.3% |
29.8% /
24.2% |
4.9 /
4.2 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
42.9% /
32.8% |
20.3 /
30.6 |
| 11 |
NO |
23 – 20 W |
8.6 |
37.1% /
55.3% |
5.7% /
6.4% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
4.9 /
5.6 |
29.6% /
42.3% |
44.4% /
19.2% |
1.9 /
4.2 |
62 /
73 |
31.1% /
55.4% |
33.9% /
50.7% |
42.6% /
29.0% |
3.6 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
43.5% /
35.6% |
36.8 /
23.4 |
| 12 |
@OAK |
32 – 35 L |
-3.9 |
33.3% /
56.1% |
6.7% /
4.9% |
3.6% /
2.6% |
7.6 /
7.6 |
40.0% /
30.8% |
24.0% /
15.4% |
5.2 /
1.5 |
55 /
80 |
37.8% /
50.0% |
36.4% /
43.8% |
62.3% /
36.8% |
6.5 /
4.6 |
1.8% /
1.3% |
45.5% /
48.8% |
26.8 /
30.9 |
| 13 |
@SEA |
7 – 40 L |
-17.3 |
30.3% /
52.4% |
0.0% /
7.1% |
3.0% /
2.6% |
5.5 /
7.0 |
42.9% /
44.8% |
33.3% /
27.6% |
4.2 /
8.3 |
54 /
71 |
34.1% /
50.0% |
35.2% /
49.3% |
51.3% /
62.5% |
5.0 /
7.5 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
38.9% /
40.8% |
30.5 /
29.5 |
| 14 |
SD |
28 – 16 W |
12.7 |
34.5% /
36.4% |
6.9% /
11.4% |
3.7% /
7.7% |
5.0 /
5.0 |
36.8% /
45.0% |
26.3% /
25.0% |
3.3 /
2.9 |
67 /
64 |
35.3% /
40.0% |
35.8% /
39.1% |
46.3% /
49.3% |
4.1 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
56.7% /
31.3% |
43.0 /
20.6 |
| 15 |
@WAS |
26 – 15 W |
8.2 |
46.2% /
45.8% |
5.1% /
2.1% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
7.4 /
6.4 |
44.1% /
21.4% |
32.4% /
28.6% |
4.4 /
2.1 |
73 /
62 |
51.8% /
46.8% |
45.2% /
40.3% |
51.0% /
29.5% |
6.0 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
46.6% /
22.6% |
39.1 /
21.6 |
| 16 |
ATL |
16 – 33 L |
-12.9 |
33.3% /
51.4% |
4.4% /
10.8% |
4.7% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
6.9 |
50.0% /
58.3% |
16.7% /
16.7% |
5.0 /
6.3 |
69 /
61 |
41.7% /
57.4% |
39.1% /
54.1% |
25.4% /
54.4% |
4.4 /
6.7 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
39.3% |
31.0 /
33.4 |
| 17 |
@TB |
16 – 17 L |
0.9 |
42.9% /
39.5% |
8.6% /
7.9% |
9.4% /
2.9% |
5.9 /
4.9 |
34.4% /
38.5% |
31.3% /
30.8% |
4.0 /
4.3 |
67 /
64 |
40.0% /
42.0% |
38.8% /
39.1% |
49.3% /
46.2% |
5.0 /
4.7 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
47.8% /
40.6% |
29.2 /
33.1 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
LA |
28 – 0 W |
12.6 |
45.7% /
27.0% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
5.7% |
4.9 /
3.2 |
37.2% /
37.5% |
32.6% /
20.8% |
3.5 /
2.8 |
78 /
61 |
40.4% /
35.7% |
41.0% /
31.1% |
35.2% /
29.0% |
4.1 /
3.0 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
55.1% /
39.3% |
24.4 /
31.4 |
| 2 |
@CAR |
27 – 46 L |
-7.8 |
39.5% /
47.5% |
5.3% /
2.5% |
5.6% /
2.6% |
6.2 /
8.8 |
34.6% /
40.5% |
26.9% /
24.3% |
2.5 /
4.8 |
64 /
77 |
41.7% /
43.5% |
37.5% /
44.2% |
46.7% /
55.6% |
4.7 /
6.9 |
1.6% /
3.9% |
40.6% /
48.1% |
33.9 /
31.8 |
| 3 |
@SEA |
18 – 37 L |
-19.7 |
28.0% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
5.9% |
4.0% /
3.1% |
4.8 /
8.6 |
38.7% /
36.4% |
16.1% /
27.3% |
4.4 /
3.9 |
56 /
67 |
35.0% /
40.0% |
33.9% /
43.3% |
25.2% /
49.9% |
4.5 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
55.4% /
49.3% |
33.6 /
35.1 |
| 4 |
DAL |
17 – 24 L |
3.0 |
45.8% /
58.8% |
4.2% /
5.9% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
7.9 /
6.9 |
50.0% /
54.3% |
33.3% /
6.5% |
3.6 /
4.3 |
54 /
80 |
48.6% /
68.4% |
48.1% /
56.3% |
47.0% /
33.2% |
5.5 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.6% /
57.5% |
25.4 /
28.0 |
| 5 |
ARI |
21 – 33 L |
-4.9 |
42.1% /
34.5% |
18.4% /
3.4% |
6.5% /
0.0% |
3.6 /
4.0 |
66.7% /
53.8% |
19.4% /
15.4% |
4.2 /
4.5 |
74 /
68 |
59.3% /
54.2% |
54.1% /
45.6% |
24.1% /
52.4% |
3.9 /
4.3 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
48.6% /
57.4% |
18.3 /
39.9 |
| 6 |
@BUF |
16 – 45 L |
-6.8 |
37.5% /
41.9% |
9.4% /
9.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
5.8 |
44.8% /
62.2% |
27.6% /
13.3% |
4.6 /
7.0 |
61 /
76 |
50.0% /
54.1% |
41.0% /
53.9% |
42.9% /
57.7% |
4.9 /
6.5 |
1.6% /
2.6% |
47.5% /
59.2% |
30.7 /
30.2 |
| 7 |
TB |
17 – 34 L |
-2.0 |
34.2% /
53.1% |
10.5% /
6.3% |
2.9% /
3.3% |
3.0 /
8.3 |
64.3% /
52.4% |
21.4% /
16.7% |
5.7 /
6.0 |
66 /
74 |
48.0% /
57.9% |
47.0% /
52.7% |
38.1% /
47.3% |
4.1 /
6.9 |
3.0% /
0.0% |
42.4% /
56.8% |
30.7 /
26.4 |
| 9 |
NO |
23 – 41 L |
-10.2 |
52.5% /
55.0% |
2.5% /
2.5% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
9.8 /
8.1 |
47.1% /
52.3% |
23.5% /
13.6% |
5.5 /
5.7 |
57 /
84 |
58.7% /
54.0% |
50.9% /
53.6% |
56.0% /
45.4% |
8.5 /
6.8 |
5.3% /
0.0% |
29.8% /
52.4% |
29.0 /
28.5 |
| 10 |
@ARI |
20 – 23 L |
-6.5 |
45.5% /
52.0% |
9.1% /
4.0% |
0.0% /
4.2% |
6.0 /
7.3 |
39.3% /
34.8% |
28.6% /
39.1% |
3.0 /
3.5 |
61 /
73 |
41.9% /
44.1% |
42.6% /
46.6% |
53.7% /
40.6% |
4.6 /
6.1 |
1.6% /
2.7% |
45.9% /
31.5% |
30.5 /
23.2 |
| 11 |
NE |
17 – 30 L |
-7.6 |
40.0% /
47.5% |
14.3% /
2.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.1 /
6.8 |
51.9% /
51.6% |
29.6% /
12.9% |
4.5 /
5.5 |
62 /
71 |
47.9% /
48.1% |
45.2% /
49.3% |
39.1% /
51.2% |
4.8 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.5% /
43.7% |
23.5 /
32.8 |
| 12 |
@MIA |
24 – 31 L |
-3.5 |
42.6% /
50.0% |
4.3% /
6.3% |
2.2% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
8.2 |
56.0% /
34.6% |
20.0% /
34.6% |
7.7 /
3.7 |
72 /
58 |
44.6% /
41.3% |
47.2% /
43.1% |
38.1% /
46.6% |
6.6 /
6.2 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
34.7% /
44.8% |
23.8 /
31.6 |
| 13 |
@CHI |
6 – 26 L |
-6.3 |
19.0% /
57.9% |
28.6% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.3 /
9.7 |
48.6% /
35.7% |
20.0% /
19.0% |
4.1 /
3.4 |
56 /
61 |
42.5% /
45.5% |
37.5% /
42.6% |
17.6% /
55.2% |
2.6 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
62.5% /
68.9% |
26.6 /
31.5 |
| 14 |
NYJ |
17 – 23 L |
11.9 |
32.1% /
41.5% |
7.1% /
14.6% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
4.1 /
5.3 |
48.1% /
55.0% |
25.9% /
15.0% |
9.2 /
4.7 |
55 /
81 |
47.6% /
48.4% |
40.0% /
48.1% |
70.3% /
38.4% |
6.6 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
49.1% /
49.4% |
28.8 /
27.8 |
| 15 |
@ATL |
13 – 41 L |
-17.2 |
48.6% /
68.0% |
5.7% /
4.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
12.1 |
55.0% /
47.6% |
30.0% /
31.0% |
5.4 /
5.9 |
55 /
67 |
52.4% /
57.1% |
50.9% /
55.2% |
37.9% /
59.9% |
4.9 /
8.2 |
1.8% /
1.5% |
36.4% /
62.7% |
20.3 /
29.6 |
| 16 |
@LA |
22 – 21 W |
-5.7 |
47.6% /
32.1% |
9.5% /
14.3% |
2.6% /
8.3% |
6.0 /
2.8 |
18.2% /
33.3% |
24.2% /
16.7% |
2.2 /
3.3 |
75 /
58 |
36.5% /
33.3% |
34.7% /
32.8% |
14.8% /
36.5% |
4.3 /
3.1 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
44.0% /
51.7% |
26.7 /
35.9 |
| 17 |
SEA |
23 – 25 L |
-1.5 |
40.7% /
45.0% |
18.5% /
5.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.1 /
7.2 |
45.5% /
28.6% |
27.3% /
28.6% |
1.9 /
3.2 |
60 /
68 |
50.0% /
46.0% |
43.3% /
38.2% |
59.4% /
51.1% |
4.2 /
5.6 |
3.3% /
0.0% |
55.0% /
41.2% |
27.6 /
33.8 |
Carolina Panthers
@ 
San Francisco 49ers