Game Analysis
CAROLINA (-5.5) vs New York Jets
The bye week was crucial for the recovery of two Pro-Bowlers on the Panthers offense. Tight end Greg Olsen looks like he will return this week and center Ryan Kalil may also be in the starting lineup. Carolina gained 7.7 yards per play against the Dolphins prior to the bye week and they will look to continue that success facing an average New York defense ranked 16th in yppl. Christian McCaffrey leads all running backs in targets this season and he has a good matchup against a Jets defense allowing 6.4 yards per target to opposing running backs (26th).
New York is also coming off a bye week but I do not expect their offense to move the ball against a Panthers defense ranked 4th in compensated yppl allowed. Luke Kuechly is excellent against the run but also ranks 11th among inside linebackers in yards allowed per cover snap this season, which will be important against Jet tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins.
Carolina is improving with Cam Newton now healthy after not being 100% earlier in the season but that improvement is more than factored into the line here, as I think the Panthers should be favored by 3 or 3 ½ points in this one. However, Carolina applies to a 38-6 ATS subset of a 109-49-3 ATS favorite off a bye situation that works well even when the underdog is also off a bye. While I really like that angle I’m going to pass due to the negative line value.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
35.1
34.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.6%
43.0%
-
Sack Rate
6.2%
10.3%
-
Int Rate
3.1%
1.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.3%
22.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.5%
38.2%
-
NYPP
6.1
5.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.9
21.8
-
RB YPR
3.3
3.6
-
Stuff Rate
24.7%
27.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.0%
39.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
41.1%
49.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
67.0
56.6
-
Early Down Succ
46.8%
47.1%
-
Succ Rate
45.4%
42.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.2%
40.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.1
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.3
27.9
-
Run Ratio
47.9%
39.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.0
27.2
-
Game Control
2.2
-2.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.4
36.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
44.4%
45.7%
-
Sack Rate
9.2%
4.7%
-
Int Rate
2.2%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.9%
20.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.1%
39.2%
-
NYPP
6.1
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
26.3
29.7
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
32.4%
29.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
33.1%
40.2%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.7%
36.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
60.7
66.6
-
Early Down Succ
42.3%
45.0%
-
Succ Rate
39.9%
43.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
46.0%
39.5%
-
Yards Per Play
5.0
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.4
27.4
-
Run Ratio
43.3%
44.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.4
28.9
-
Game Control
1.1
-1.1
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@SF |
23 – 3 W |
12.4 |
45.8% / 46.2% |
0.0% / 10.3% |
4.2% / 2.9% |
7.1 / 4.3 |
39.0% / 26.7% |
14.6% / 26.7% |
2.9 / 3.4 |
65 / 54 |
42.6% / 48.7% |
41.5% / 40.7% |
29.7% / 33.6% |
4.5 / 4.0 |
1.5% / 1.9% |
63.1% / 27.8% |
33.7 / 30.1 |
2 |
BUF |
9 – 3 W |
4.0 |
50.0% / 35.7% |
15.8% / 10.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 3.8 |
34.5% / 21.7% |
37.9% / 39.1% |
2.7 / 3.0 |
67 / 51 |
44.9% / 30.6% |
43.3% / 29.4% |
39.1% / 20.5% |
3.8 / 3.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.3% / 45.1% |
31.3 / 21.1 |
3 |
NO |
13 – 34 L |
-8.6 |
43.2% / 46.7% |
10.8% / 3.3% |
9.1% / 0.0% |
4.2 / 7.1 |
77.3% / 55.6% |
4.5% / 25.9% |
6.0 / 5.5 |
59 / 57 |
57.8% / 51.1% |
55.9% / 50.9% |
40.3% / 55.5% |
4.9 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.3% / 47.4% |
25.2 / 37.8 |
4 |
@NE |
33 – 30 W |
1.9 |
61.3% / 60.4% |
6.5% / 6.3% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
9.8 / 6.1 |
51.7% / 73.7% |
20.7% / 21.1% |
4.8 / 4.2 |
60 / 67 |
54.9% / 66.7% |
56.7% / 64.2% |
48.0% / 22.0% |
7.4 / 5.6 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
48.3% / 28.4% |
26.7 / 26.1 |
5 |
@DET |
27 – 24 W |
6.3 |
50.0% / 51.2% |
8.3% / 14.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.3 / 4.7 |
17.6% / 40.0% |
32.4% / 40.0% |
0.9 / 3.3 |
70 / 56 |
37.0% / 52.4% |
34.3% / 48.2% |
53.7% / 53.7% |
5.2 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
48.6% / 26.8% |
31.7 / 29.8 |
6 |
PHI |
23 – 28 L |
-3.0 |
37.0% / 39.4% |
3.7% / 9.1% |
5.8% / 0.0% |
4.2 / 6.3 |
48.0% / 37.9% |
40.0% / 27.6% |
3.2 / 3.6 |
79 / 62 |
45.0% / 41.9% |
40.5% / 38.7% |
20.7% / 54.2% |
3.9 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
31.6% / 46.8% |
30.0 / 32.9 |
7 |
@CHI |
3 – 17 L |
-11.4 |
41.0% / 18.2% |
12.8% / 36.4% |
5.9% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 7.7 |
33.3% / 32.3% |
33.3% / 16.1% |
3.6 / 2.3 |
69 / 42 |
37.7% / 41.7% |
37.7% / 28.6% |
49.8% / 67.3% |
4.2 / 3.7 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
43.5% / 73.8% |
24.6 / 28.7 |
8 |
@TB |
17 – 3 W |
7.2 |
37.5% / 36.6% |
0.0% / 7.3% |
3.1% / 5.3% |
4.8 / 4.7 |
45.5% / 45.5% |
24.2% / 31.8% |
3.1 / 3.9 |
65 / 63 |
43.2% / 46.0% |
41.5% / 39.7% |
30.5% / 19.4% |
3.9 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
50.8% / 34.9% |
30.6 / 23.2 |
9 |
ATL |
20 – 17 W |
0.4 |
40.0% / 47.5% |
4.0% / 5.0% |
0.0% / 2.6% |
5.2 / 7.6 |
50.0% / 36.8% |
21.1% / 26.3% |
5.3 / 2.8 |
63 / 59 |
50.0% / 52.4% |
46.0% / 44.1% |
43.3% / 39.6% |
5.2 / 6.0 |
3.2% / 0.0% |
60.3% / 32.2% |
35.8 / 20.5 |
10 |
MIA |
45 – 21 W |
12.9 |
60.0% / 48.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 2.7% |
7.3 / 5.8 |
52.6% / 27.8% |
18.4% / 22.2% |
7.8 / 5.6 |
73 / 55 |
54.5% / 40.0% |
56.2% / 41.8% |
57.3% / 38.9% |
7.5 / 5.7 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
52.1% / 32.7% |
30.1 / 21.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@BUF |
12 – 21 L |
-3.8 |
37.5% / 43.3% |
2.5% / 6.7% |
5.1% / 3.6% |
4.4 / 7.3 |
25.0% / 33.3% |
31.3% / 24.4% |
2.4 / 4.3 |
56 / 75 |
35.9% / 37.7% |
33.9% / 37.3% |
26.5% / 68.1% |
3.8 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
28.6% / 60.0% |
29.7 / 25.3 |
2 |
@OAK |
20 – 45 L |
-11.6 |
44.8% / 64.3% |
13.8% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.0 / 8.2 |
61.5% / 40.7% |
19.2% / 33.3% |
4.9 / 6.7 |
55 / 55 |
53.7% / 48.8% |
52.7% / 52.7% |
43.0% / 56.1% |
4.9 / 7.5 |
3.6% / 0.0% |
47.3% / 49.1% |
27.1 / 35.7 |
3 |
MIA |
20 – 6 W |
9.8 |
52.0% / 41.7% |
8.0% / 6.3% |
0.0% / 4.4% |
9.3 / 4.1 |
37.1% / 46.7% |
34.3% / 46.7% |
3.0 / 2.0 |
60 / 63 |
48.9% / 54.2% |
43.3% / 42.9% |
40.1% / 11.6% |
5.6 / 3.6 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
58.3% / 23.8% |
31.4 / 23.7 |
4 |
JAC |
23 – 20 W |
2.3 |
44.4% / 30.6% |
13.9% / 2.8% |
3.2% / 2.9% |
6.0 / 3.8 |
31.3% / 57.5% |
43.8% / 20.0% |
8.0 / 4.4 |
68 / 76 |
37.3% / 50.8% |
38.2% / 44.7% |
68.6% / 27.6% |
6.9 / 4.1 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
47.1% / 52.6% |
29.5 / 27.0 |
5 |
@CLE |
17 – 14 W |
1.7 |
51.5% / 45.9% |
9.1% / 2.7% |
3.3% / 5.6% |
5.4 / 7.5 |
19.0% / 45.5% |
33.3% / 18.2% |
1.8 / 4.2 |
54 / 70 |
45.9% / 46.3% |
38.9% / 45.7% |
32.1% / 40.1% |
4.0 / 6.0 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
38.9% / 47.1% |
29.0 / 30.1 |
6 |
NE |
17 – 24 L |
0.1 |
54.0% / 39.5% |
8.0% / 0.0% |
4.3% / 2.6% |
6.7 / 6.8 |
40.0% / 61.5% |
24.0% / 7.7% |
3.0 / 4.6 |
75 / 64 |
50.9% / 49.0% |
49.3% / 48.4% |
46.0% / 29.5% |
5.5 / 5.9 |
1.3% / 1.6% |
33.3% / 40.6% |
24.0 / 28.7 |
7 |
@MIA |
28 – 31 L |
5.2 |
36.7% / 52.5% |
10.0% / 7.5% |
3.7% / 5.4% |
6.0 / 7.6 |
34.8% / 24.0% |
30.4% / 44.0% |
4.0 / 2.1 |
53 / 65 |
37.5% / 42.3% |
35.8% / 41.5% |
61.9% / 53.8% |
5.2 / 5.5 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
43.4% / 38.5% |
29.3 / 31.2 |
8 |
ATL |
20 – 25 L |
1.1 |
51.4% / 50.0% |
8.6% / 3.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.7 / 8.2 |
22.7% / 37.5% |
36.4% / 28.1% |
2.0 / 4.4 |
57 / 62 |
41.5% / 45.8% |
40.4% / 43.5% |
40.1% / 53.1% |
4.9 / 6.2 |
1.8% / 3.2% |
38.6% / 51.6% |
36.9 / 26.1 |
9 |
BUF |
34 – 21 W |
9.6 |
42.9% / 48.9% |
4.8% / 14.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.5 / 5.2 |
38.6% / 27.3% |
29.5% / 40.9% |
4.5 / 2.9 |
65 / 69 |
43.5% / 42.3% |
40.0% / 42.0% |
55.4% / 31.6% |
5.1 / 4.4 |
0.0% / 4.3% |
67.7% / 31.9% |
38.0 / 25.2 |
10 |
@TB |
10 – 15 L |
-3.4 |
28.9% / 40.0% |
13.3% / 2.9% |
2.6% / 2.9% |
4.9 / 5.2 |
21.1% / 28.1% |
42.1% / 28.1% |
2.9 / 2.8 |
64 / 67 |
27.7% / 32.7% |
26.6% / 34.3% |
46.2% / 23.2% |
4.3 / 4.1 |
1.6% / 0.0% |
29.7% / 47.8% |
19.0 / 36.0 |