Carolina Panthers @

New York Jets

Sun, Nov 26
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 261
Odds: New York Jets +5.5, Total: 40

Game Analysis

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CAROLINA (-5.5) vs New York Jets

The bye week was crucial for the recovery of two Pro-Bowlers on the Panthers offense. Tight end Greg Olsen looks like he will return this week and center Ryan Kalil may also be in the starting lineup. Carolina gained 7.7 yards per play against the Dolphins prior to the bye week and they will look to continue that success facing an average New York defense ranked 16th in yppl. Christian McCaffrey leads all running backs in targets this season and he has a good matchup against a Jets defense allowing 6.4 yards per target to opposing running backs (26th).

New York is also coming off a bye week but I do not expect their offense to move the ball against a Panthers defense ranked 4th in compensated yppl allowed. Luke Kuechly is excellent against the run but also ranks 11th among inside linebackers in yards allowed per cover snap this season, which will be important against Jet tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins.

Carolina is improving with Cam Newton now healthy after not being 100% earlier in the season but that improvement is more than factored into the line here, as I think the Panthers should be favored by 3 or 3 ½ points in this one. However, Carolina applies to a 38-6 ATS subset of a 109-49-3 ATS favorite off a bye situation that works well even when the underdog is also off a bye. While I really like that angle I’m going to pass due to the negative line value.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Panthers
  • Jets
CAR
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 35.1 34.8
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.6% 43.0%
  • Sack Rate 6.2% 10.3%
  • Int Rate 3.1% 1.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.3% 22.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 38.5% 38.2%
  • NYPP 6.1 5.8



Rush


  • Rush Plays 31.9 21.8
  • RB YPR 3.3 3.6
  • Stuff Rate 24.7% 27.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 45.0% 39.8%
  • Big Rush Yards 41.1% 49.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.0 3.8




Game

  • All Snaps 67.0 56.6
  • Early Down Succ 46.8% 47.1%
  • Succ Rate 45.4% 42.6%
  • Big Yards Rate 41.2% 40.5%
  • Yards Per Play 5.1 4.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.3 27.9
  • Run Ratio 47.9% 39.6%
  • Starting Field Pos 30.0 27.2
  • Game Control 2.2 -2.2
 
  • Points 21.3 18.0
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