Carolina Panthers
@ 
New Orleans Saints
Game Analysis
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Lean – Over (40.5) – Carolina (-2.5) vs NEW ORLEANS
- The Saints have a 41% blitz rate (4th-highest), and they will limit Carolina’s passing attack, ranking 29th relatively against the blitz compared to a standard pass rush.
- The Panthers average 28.5 carries per game (8th), but their ground game should be contained by a New Orleans defense that is conceding -0.11 EPA/rush (9th).
- New Orleans TE Juwan Johnson is gaining 1.54 yards per route run (7th), and he has a favorable matchup as Carolina’s defense is allowing a league-high 0.67 EPA/target to opposing tight ends.
- Our model favors the Saints by 0.4 points, with a predicted total of 43.1 points, and the Panthers are 2-15 straight up and 1-15-1 ATS when favored by more than 1 point in recent years, including a 7-17 home loss to these Saints earlier this season.