Game Analysis
NEW ENGLAND (-8.5) vs Carolina
Despite starting 2-1, the Patriots have been a below average team thus far, ranking 21st in my metrics just using 2017 data. However, the Patriots have a strong tendency to right themselves when they are not playing well. In fact, the Patriots are 29-5-2 ATS if they enter a game with a losing pointspread record and are not laying more than 9 points.
Cam Newton is following up the worst year of his career with an even worse year and he was pulled at the end of last week’s game after throwing 3 interceptions. To make matters worse for the Panthers passing game, they’ll be without TE Greg Olsen and maybe WR Kelvin Benjamin for this game. Carolina may need Newton to use his feet and I expect them to rely on their 10th ranked rushing offense this week against a Patriots rush defense that ranks 29th in my numbers. Carolina’s only strength is their defense, which is very good. However, New England is relatively better against better defensive teams, which they showed against in last week’s 36-33 win over a Texans’ team with a good defense. I don’t see any value here with either side.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.0
32.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.4%
42.8%
-
Sack Rate
8.9%
8.1%
-
Int Rate
4.4%
1.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.3%
13.8%
-
Big Pass Yards
37.2%
26.2%
-
NYPP
5.3
5.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.7
21.7
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
19.0%
30.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.3%
34.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.5%
56.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.9
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
63.7
54.0
-
Early Down Succ
48.4%
43.5%
-
Succ Rate
46.9%
40.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.3%
36.5%
-
Yards Per Play
4.4
4.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.6%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
32.1
28.6
-
Run Ratio
47.9%
40.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.1
29.7
-
Game Control
2.6
-2.6
Pass
-
Pass Plays
40.0
39.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.3%
53.4%
-
Sack Rate
8.4%
5.3%
-
Int Rate
0.0%
2.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
30.4%
24.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
60.4%
51.1%
-
NYPP
8.5
8.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.0
27.3
-
RB YPR
3.4
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
25.9%
12.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
48.9%
48.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
25.1%
34.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.4
4.8
Game
-
All Snaps
69.0
66.7
-
Early Down Succ
50.5%
57.4%
-
Succ Rate
48.3%
51.5%
-
Big Yards Rate
53.4%
46.9%
-
Yards Per Play
6.4
6.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.6
26.5
-
Run Ratio
41.5%
40.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.0
25.8
-
Game Control
5.7
-5.7
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@SF |
23 – 3 W |
12.4 |
45.8% / 46.2% |
0.0% / 10.3% |
4.2% / 2.9% |
7.1 / 4.3 |
39.0% / 26.7% |
14.6% / 26.7% |
2.9 / 3.4 |
65 / 54 |
42.6% / 48.7% |
41.5% / 40.7% |
29.7% / 33.6% |
4.5 / 4.0 |
1.5% / 1.9% |
63.1% / 27.8% |
33.7 / 30.1 |
2 |
BUF |
9 – 3 W |
4.0 |
50.0% / 35.7% |
15.8% / 10.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 3.8 |
34.5% / 21.7% |
37.9% / 39.1% |
2.7 / 3.0 |
67 / 51 |
44.9% / 30.6% |
43.3% / 29.4% |
39.1% / 20.5% |
3.8 / 3.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.3% / 45.1% |
31.3 / 21.1 |
3 |
NO |
13 – 34 L |
-8.6 |
43.2% / 46.7% |
10.8% / 3.3% |
9.1% / 0.0% |
4.2 / 7.1 |
77.3% / 55.6% |
4.5% / 25.9% |
6.0 / 5.5 |
59 / 57 |
57.8% / 51.1% |
55.9% / 50.9% |
40.3% / 55.5% |
4.9 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.3% / 47.4% |
25.2 / 37.8 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
KC |
27 – 42 L |
1.8 |
33.3% / 60.5% |
7.7% / 7.9% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 9.3 |
50.0% / 42.4% |
25.0% / 9.1% |
3.5 / 5.7 |
75 / 71 |
46.4% / 63.5% |
41.3% / 52.1% |
54.8% / 53.7% |
5.0 / 7.6 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
48.0% / 46.5% |
27.8 / 25.5 |
2 |
@NO |
36 – 20 W |
14.2 |
61.0% / 51.1% |
4.9% / 2.2% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
10.6 / 7.7 |
51.6% / 47.1% |
22.6% / 11.8% |
3.8 / 4.8 |
72 / 62 |
58.3% / 54.2% |
56.9% / 50.0% |
53.2% / 48.3% |
7.7 / 6.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.1% / 27.4% |
27.5 / 27.9 |
3 |
HOU |
36 – 33 W |
1.2 |
47.5% / 48.6% |
12.5% / 5.7% |
0.0% / 6.1% |
8.4 / 8.3 |
45.0% / 56.3% |
30.0% / 15.6% |
3.0 / 3.9 |
60 / 67 |
46.8% / 54.7% |
46.7% / 52.2% |
52.3% / 38.8% |
6.6 / 6.2 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
33.3% / 47.8% |
28.8 / 24.0 |