Carolina Panthers @

New England Patriots

Sun, Oct 1
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 253
Odds: New England Patriots -9, Total: 49

Game Analysis

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NEW ENGLAND (-8.5) vs Carolina

Despite starting 2-1, the Patriots have been a below average team thus far, ranking 21st in my metrics just using 2017 data. However, the Patriots have a strong tendency to right themselves when they are not playing well. In fact, the Patriots are 29-5-2 ATS if they enter a game with a losing pointspread record and are not laying more than 9 points.

Cam Newton is following up the worst year of his career with an even worse year and he was pulled at the end of last week’s game after throwing 3 interceptions. To make matters worse for the Panthers passing game, they’ll be without TE Greg Olsen and maybe WR Kelvin Benjamin for this game. Carolina may need Newton to use his feet and I expect them to rely on their 10th ranked rushing offense this week against a Patriots rush defense that ranks 29th in my numbers. Carolina’s only strength is their defense, which is very good. However, New England is relatively better against better defensive teams, which they showed against in last week’s 36-33 win over a Texans’ team with a good defense. I don’t see any value here with either side.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Panthers
  • Patriots
CAR
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 33.0 32.3
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.4% 42.8%
  • Sack Rate 8.9% 8.1%
  • Int Rate 4.4% 1.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.3% 13.8%
  • Big Pass Yards 37.2% 26.2%
  • NYPP 5.3 5.1



Rush


  • Rush Plays 30.7 21.7
  • RB YPR 3.7 3.5
  • Stuff Rate 19.0% 30.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 50.3% 34.7%
  • Big Rush Yards 35.5% 56.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.9 4.0




Game

  • All Snaps 63.7 54.0
  • Early Down Succ 48.4% 43.5%
  • Succ Rate 46.9% 40.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 36.3% 36.5%
  • Yards Per Play 4.4 4.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.6%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 32.1 28.6
  • Run Ratio 47.9% 40.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 30.1 29.7
  • Game Control 2.6 -2.6
 
  • Points 15.0 13.3
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