Game Analysis

Lean – Carolina (+13.5) over MIAMI

· Bryce Young has made a concerted effort to get the ball out faster after being sidelined in week 3 with a mild ankle sprain. Young has a 2.63-second average time to throw in the last two games compared to 3.20 seconds in the first two weeks.

· Young should have protection on Sunday. Panthers RG Calvin Throckmorton ranks 5th in pass blocking efficiency, and he will contain interior defender Christian Wilkins, who had 8 pressures last week.

· Carolina RT Taylor Moton is one of 14 qualifying tackles who hasn’t allowed a sack, and he will limit edge defender Andrew Van Ginkel, who ranks 6th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Dolphins nickelback Kader Kohou is conceding 0.72 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th) and he will shut down WR Adam Thielen, whose 66% success rate ranks 9th among wide receivers.

· Panthers RB Miles Sanders has just an 8% forced missed tackle rate and is gaining only 2.13 yards after contact (3rd-worst). Sanders might be out because of a shoulder injury which would improve Carolina’s ground game. Chubba Hubbard has a 29% forced miss tackle rate and is averaging 1.3 more yards per carry than Sanders.

· Miami’s offense has all three of the NFL’s 500+ yard games this season. The Dolphins lead the league gaining 0.11 EPA/carry and the Panthers are surrendering a league-high 49.6% rush success rate.

· However, Miami’s ground game suffered a major blow losing running back Devon Achane, whose 7.42 yards after contact per carry not only leads the league by a wide margin but is also better than every other running back’s overall yards per rush average.

· Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert is gaining 1.24 yards per route run (7th) but he could struggle as a receiver on Sunday as the Panthers are allowing a 41% pass success rate to running backs (13th).

· Our model makes Miami a 16.7-point favorite, with a predicted total of 46.5 points, but the matchups favor Carolina, and the Panthers apply to a 61-10-2 ATS contrary indicator that plays on bad teams with a bad spread record against good teams with a good spread record.