Game Analysis

Lean – Over (41.5) – DENVER (-10) vs Carolina

• Andy Dalton sprained his thumb in a car crash earlier this week and Bryce Young will start, which is a downgrade. Dalton has averaged just 5.7 yards per pass play but that’s a lot better than Young’s 3.6 yppp this season before he got benched (and 4.0 yppp in 20 career games).
• Additionally, the Panthers will likely have starting RT Taylor Moton back on the field to contain edge defender Jonathon Cooper, who ranks 11th in pass-rushing efficiency. Moton is conceding a 3.0% pressure rate compared to backup Yosh Nijman allowing a 7.1% pressure rate.
• Carolina LG Damien Lewis ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency, and he will limit Zach Allen, who leads interior defensive linemen with 39 pressures.
• Panthers WR Adam Thielen also returned to practice but I’m not sure all these positive indicators are going to make a difference with Young back behind center.
• Bo Nix has 136 rushing yards over his last two games, which adds a new dimension to Denver’s offense.
• The Broncos ran for 225 yards on the Saints and the Panthers’ rush defense surrendered 214 yards last week while missing eight tackles. I expect Sean Payton to continue featuring the ground game as a large favorite here.
• Carolina CB Jaycee Horn is conceding 0.82 yards per cover snap (17th) and he will shut down Courtland Sutton, whose 45 targets lead Denver.
• Our model favors the Broncos by 14.3 points, with a predicted total of 43.9 points, but Carolina applies to a 236-117-12 ATS contrary indicator that plays on bad teams with a bad ATS record. I think 10 is the fair number.