Carolina Panthers @

Chicago Bears

Sun, Oct 22
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 463
Odds: Chicago Bears +3, Total: 40.5

Game Analysis

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CHICAGO (+3) vs Carolina

Since the week 3 return of top cornerback Prince Amukamara the Bears pass defense ranks 5th in my metrics and they’re only getting better. Chicago held the Vikings and Ravens to a combined 3.8 yppp the last two weeks. Cam Newton only managed 4.2 yppp against the Eagles last week and I expect him to struggle again in this game.

I don’t expect the Bears offense to put up points in this game either. With a rookie quarterback, Chicago relies on their ground game calling runs on 49% of plays, which is 3rd most in the NFL. This will not be a good strategy against a Panthers rush defense ranked 2nd in my metrics, although it’s worth noting Luke Kuechly is a big part of their success and he is listed as questionable to play due to a neck injury. The Bears offense has the 5th-best redzone touchdown rate and the Panthers defense has the 3rd-worst redzone touchdown rate. Considering the quality of these two units, both of those rankings should regress towards the mean so I expect Chicago’s offense to perform worse and Carolina’s defense to perform better inside the 20 as the season progresses. I think the number on this game is fair, but I’d lean with Chicago at +3 or more if Kuechly doesn’t play.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Panthers
  • Bears
CAR
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 36.7 36.5
  • Succ Pass Plays 47.9% 46.6%
  • Sack Rate 7.5% 9.0%
  • Int Rate 3.7% 0.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.9% 15.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 38.6% 33.0%
  • NYPP 6.5 5.4



Rush


  • Rush Plays 30.0 21.3
  • RB YPR 2.9 3.5
  • Stuff Rate 25.0% 30.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 44.7% 42.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 33.1% 55.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.4 3.8




Game

  • All Snaps 66.7 57.8
  • Early Down Succ 47.0% 48.5%
  • Succ Rate 45.4% 45.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 38.6% 39.9%
  • Yards Per Play 4.9 4.8
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 0.9%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 29.9 27.9
  • Run Ratio 45.4% 37.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.8 29.6
  • Game Control 2.2 -2.2
 
  • Points 21.3 20.3
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