Game Analysis
CHICAGO (+3) vs Carolina
Since the week 3 return of top cornerback Prince Amukamara the Bears pass defense ranks 5th in my metrics and they’re only getting better. Chicago held the Vikings and Ravens to a combined 3.8 yppp the last two weeks. Cam Newton only managed 4.2 yppp against the Eagles last week and I expect him to struggle again in this game.
I don’t expect the Bears offense to put up points in this game either. With a rookie quarterback, Chicago relies on their ground game calling runs on 49% of plays, which is 3rd most in the NFL. This will not be a good strategy against a Panthers rush defense ranked 2nd in my metrics, although it’s worth noting Luke Kuechly is a big part of their success and he is listed as questionable to play due to a neck injury. The Bears offense has the 5th-best redzone touchdown rate and the Panthers defense has the 3rd-worst redzone touchdown rate. Considering the quality of these two units, both of those rankings should regress towards the mean so I expect Chicago’s offense to perform worse and Carolina’s defense to perform better inside the 20 as the season progresses. I think the number on this game is fair, but I’d lean with Chicago at +3 or more if Kuechly doesn’t play.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.7
36.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.9%
46.6%
-
Sack Rate
7.5%
9.0%
-
Int Rate
3.7%
0.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.9%
15.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.6%
33.0%
-
NYPP
6.5
5.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.0
21.3
-
RB YPR
2.9
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
25.0%
30.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.7%
42.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
33.1%
55.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.4
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
66.7
57.8
-
Early Down Succ
47.0%
48.5%
-
Succ Rate
45.4%
45.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.6%
39.9%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
4.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.9
27.9
-
Run Ratio
45.4%
37.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.8
29.6
-
Game Control
2.2
-2.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.7
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
37.6%
44.1%
-
Sack Rate
7.5%
7.4%
-
Int Rate
3.1%
0.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.3%
16.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
20.7%
27.5%
-
NYPP
5.2
5.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.2
26.7
-
RB YPR
4.2
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
26.3%
14.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.1%
43.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.9%
31.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
63.8
62.7
-
Early Down Succ
42.4%
44.6%
-
Succ Rate
41.1%
43.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
32.4%
32.7%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
2.1%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
29.1
-
Run Ratio
48.0%
42.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.4
30.0
-
Game Control
-4.9
4.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@SF |
23 – 3 W |
12.4 |
45.8% / 46.2% |
0.0% / 10.3% |
4.2% / 2.9% |
7.1 / 4.3 |
39.0% / 26.7% |
14.6% / 26.7% |
2.9 / 3.4 |
65 / 54 |
42.6% / 48.7% |
41.5% / 40.7% |
29.7% / 33.6% |
4.5 / 4.0 |
1.5% / 1.9% |
63.1% / 27.8% |
33.7 / 30.1 |
2 |
BUF |
9 – 3 W |
4.0 |
50.0% / 35.7% |
15.8% / 10.7% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.7 / 3.8 |
34.5% / 21.7% |
37.9% / 39.1% |
2.7 / 3.0 |
67 / 51 |
44.9% / 30.6% |
43.3% / 29.4% |
39.1% / 20.5% |
3.8 / 3.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
43.3% / 45.1% |
31.3 / 21.1 |
3 |
NO |
13 – 34 L |
-8.6 |
43.2% / 46.7% |
10.8% / 3.3% |
9.1% / 0.0% |
4.2 / 7.1 |
77.3% / 55.6% |
4.5% / 25.9% |
6.0 / 5.5 |
59 / 57 |
57.8% / 51.1% |
55.9% / 50.9% |
40.3% / 55.5% |
4.9 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
37.3% / 47.4% |
25.2 / 37.8 |
4 |
@NE |
33 – 30 W |
1.9 |
61.3% / 60.4% |
6.5% / 6.3% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
9.8 / 6.1 |
51.7% / 73.7% |
20.7% / 21.1% |
4.8 / 4.2 |
60 / 67 |
54.9% / 66.7% |
56.7% / 64.2% |
48.0% / 22.0% |
7.4 / 5.6 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
48.3% / 28.4% |
26.7 / 26.1 |
5 |
@DET |
27 – 24 W |
6.3 |
50.0% / 51.2% |
8.3% / 14.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
9.3 / 4.7 |
17.6% / 40.0% |
32.4% / 40.0% |
0.9 / 3.3 |
70 / 56 |
37.0% / 52.4% |
34.3% / 48.2% |
53.7% / 53.7% |
5.2 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 1.8% |
48.6% / 26.8% |
31.7 / 29.8 |
6 |
PHI |
23 – 28 L |
-3.0 |
37.0% / 39.4% |
3.7% / 9.1% |
5.8% / 0.0% |
4.2 / 6.3 |
48.0% / 37.9% |
40.0% / 27.6% |
3.2 / 3.6 |
79 / 62 |
45.0% / 41.9% |
40.5% / 38.7% |
20.7% / 54.2% |
3.9 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 1.6% |
31.6% / 46.8% |
30.0 / 32.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
ATL |
17 – 23 L |
-2.5 |
31.8% / 50.0% |
9.1% / 6.3% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
4.0 / 9.6 |
52.6% / 32.0% |
15.8% / 24.0% |
6.6 / 2.6 |
63 / 57 |
37.5% / 45.2% |
38.1% / 42.1% |
31.2% / 49.7% |
4.8 / 6.6 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
30.2% / 43.9% |
28.1 / 18.3 |
2 |
@TB |
7 – 29 L |
-18.1 |
56.5% / 48.5% |
2.2% / 6.1% |
4.4% / 0.0% |
6.3 / 5.9 |
25.0% / 36.1% |
43.8% / 11.1% |
1.3 / 3.3 |
62 / 69 |
50.0% / 41.2% |
48.4% / 42.0% |
6.5% / 14.4% |
5.0 / 4.5 |
3.2% / 1.4% |
25.8% / 52.2% |
27.0 / 31.1 |
3 |
PIT |
23 – 17 W |
4.4 |
33.3% / 47.6% |
8.3% / 7.1% |
4.5% / 0.0% |
3.5 / 5.0 |
44.7% / 64.7% |
28.9% / 5.9% |
5.8 / 4.1 |
62 / 59 |
42.0% / 56.3% |
40.3% / 52.5% |
55.3% / 29.4% |
4.9 / 4.8 |
1.6% / 3.4% |
61.3% / 28.8% |
32.7 / 36.4 |
4 |
@GB |
14 – 35 L |
-16.9 |
38.2% / 41.4% |
2.9% / 6.9% |
6.1% / 0.0% |
6.0 / 5.8 |
40.0% / 48.0% |
26.7% / 4.0% |
3.4 / 3.7 |
64 / 54 |
36.0% / 43.2% |
39.1% / 44.4% |
25.6% / 50.6% |
4.8 / 4.8 |
3.1% / 0.0% |
46.9% / 46.3% |
28.5 / 33.5 |
5 |
MIN |
17 – 20 L |
-0.9 |
37.0% / 50.0% |
3.7% / 11.1% |
3.8% / 0.0% |
5.9 / 3.9 |
48.3% / 35.5% |
13.8% / 25.8% |
4.0 / 5.1 |
56 / 67 |
46.5% / 44.2% |
42.9% / 43.3% |
34.7% / 30.3% |
4.9 / 4.5 |
1.8% / 0.0% |
51.8% / 46.3% |
26.6 / 30.9 |
6 |
@BAL |
27 – 24 W |
4.4 |
28.6% / 27.3% |
19.0% / 6.8% |
0.0% / 4.9% |
5.3 / 3.8 |
41.8% / 46.2% |
29.1% / 15.4% |
4.2 / 4.8 |
76 / 70 |
42.1% / 37.3% |
38.2% / 34.3% |
41.1% / 21.6% |
4.5 / 4.2 |
2.6% / 1.4% |
72.4% / 37.1% |
27.6 / 29.9 |