Game Analysis
CHICAGO (+3) vs Carolina
Since the week 3 return of top cornerback Prince Amukamara the Bears pass defense ranks 5th in my metrics and they’re only getting better. Chicago held the Vikings and Ravens to a combined 3.8 yppp the last two weeks. Cam Newton only managed 4.2 yppp against the Eagles last week and I expect him to struggle again in this game.
I don’t expect the Bears offense to put up points in this game either. With a rookie quarterback, Chicago relies on their ground game calling runs on 49% of plays, which is 3rd most in the NFL. This will not be a good strategy against a Panthers rush defense ranked 2nd in my metrics, although it’s worth noting Luke Kuechly is a big part of their success and he is listed as questionable to play due to a neck injury. The Bears offense has the 5th-best redzone touchdown rate and the Panthers defense has the 3rd-worst redzone touchdown rate. Considering the quality of these two units, both of those rankings should regress towards the mean so I expect Chicago’s offense to perform worse and Carolina’s defense to perform better inside the 20 as the season progresses. I think the number on this game is fair, but I’d lean with Chicago at +3 or more if Kuechly doesn’t play.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
36.7
36.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.9%
46.6%
-
Sack Rate
7.5%
9.0%
-
Int Rate
3.7%
0.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.9%
15.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.6%
33.0%
-
NYPP
6.5
5.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.0
21.3
-
RB YPR
2.9
3.5
-
Stuff Rate
25.0%
30.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
44.7%
42.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
33.1%
55.5%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.4
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
66.7
57.8
-
Early Down Succ
47.0%
48.5%
-
Succ Rate
45.4%
45.4%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.6%
39.9%
-
Yards Per Play
4.9
4.8
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.9
27.9
-
Run Ratio
45.4%
37.0%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.8
29.6
-
Game Control
2.2
-2.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.7
36.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
37.6%
44.1%
-
Sack Rate
7.5%
7.4%
-
Int Rate
3.1%
0.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.3%
16.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
20.7%
27.5%
-
NYPP
5.2
5.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.2
26.7
-
RB YPR
4.2
3.8
-
Stuff Rate
26.3%
14.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
42.1%
43.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
38.9%
31.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
63.8
62.7
-
Early Down Succ
42.4%
44.6%
-
Succ Rate
41.1%
43.1%
-
Big Yards Rate
32.4%
32.7%
-
Yards Per Play
4.8
4.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
2.1%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.7
29.1
-
Run Ratio
48.0%
42.4%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.4
30.0
-
Game Control
-4.9
4.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@SF |
23 – 3 W |
12.4 |
45.8% /
46.2% |
0.0% /
10.3% |
4.2% /
2.9% |
7.1 /
4.3 |
39.0% /
26.7% |
14.6% /
26.7% |
2.9 /
3.4 |
65 /
54 |
42.6% /
48.7% |
41.5% /
40.7% |
29.7% /
33.6% |
4.5 /
4.0 |
1.5% /
1.9% |
63.1% /
27.8% |
33.7 /
30.1 |
| 2 |
BUF |
9 – 3 W |
4.0 |
50.0% /
35.7% |
15.8% /
10.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
3.8 |
34.5% /
21.7% |
37.9% /
39.1% |
2.7 /
3.0 |
67 /
51 |
44.9% /
30.6% |
43.3% /
29.4% |
39.1% /
20.5% |
3.8 /
3.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.3% /
45.1% |
31.3 /
21.1 |
| 3 |
NO |
13 – 34 L |
-8.6 |
43.2% /
46.7% |
10.8% /
3.3% |
9.1% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
7.1 |
77.3% /
55.6% |
4.5% /
25.9% |
6.0 /
5.5 |
59 /
57 |
57.8% /
51.1% |
55.9% /
50.9% |
40.3% /
55.5% |
4.9 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
47.4% |
25.2 /
37.8 |
| 4 |
@NE |
33 – 30 W |
1.9 |
61.3% /
60.4% |
6.5% /
6.3% |
3.4% /
0.0% |
9.8 /
6.1 |
51.7% /
73.7% |
20.7% /
21.1% |
4.8 /
4.2 |
60 /
67 |
54.9% /
66.7% |
56.7% /
64.2% |
48.0% /
22.0% |
7.4 /
5.6 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
48.3% /
28.4% |
26.7 /
26.1 |
| 5 |
@DET |
27 – 24 W |
6.3 |
50.0% /
51.2% |
8.3% /
14.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.3 /
4.7 |
17.6% /
40.0% |
32.4% /
40.0% |
0.9 /
3.3 |
70 /
56 |
37.0% /
52.4% |
34.3% /
48.2% |
53.7% /
53.7% |
5.2 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.8% |
48.6% /
26.8% |
31.7 /
29.8 |
| 6 |
PHI |
23 – 28 L |
-3.0 |
37.0% /
39.4% |
3.7% /
9.1% |
5.8% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
6.3 |
48.0% /
37.9% |
40.0% /
27.6% |
3.2 /
3.6 |
79 /
62 |
45.0% /
41.9% |
40.5% /
38.7% |
20.7% /
54.2% |
3.9 /
5.0 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
31.6% /
46.8% |
30.0 /
32.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
ATL |
17 – 23 L |
-2.5 |
31.8% /
50.0% |
9.1% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
9.6 |
52.6% /
32.0% |
15.8% /
24.0% |
6.6 /
2.6 |
63 /
57 |
37.5% /
45.2% |
38.1% /
42.1% |
31.2% /
49.7% |
4.8 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
30.2% /
43.9% |
28.1 /
18.3 |
| 2 |
@TB |
7 – 29 L |
-18.1 |
56.5% /
48.5% |
2.2% /
6.1% |
4.4% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
5.9 |
25.0% /
36.1% |
43.8% /
11.1% |
1.3 /
3.3 |
62 /
69 |
50.0% /
41.2% |
48.4% /
42.0% |
6.5% /
14.4% |
5.0 /
4.5 |
3.2% /
1.4% |
25.8% /
52.2% |
27.0 /
31.1 |
| 3 |
PIT |
23 – 17 W |
4.4 |
33.3% /
47.6% |
8.3% /
7.1% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
3.5 /
5.0 |
44.7% /
64.7% |
28.9% /
5.9% |
5.8 /
4.1 |
62 /
59 |
42.0% /
56.3% |
40.3% /
52.5% |
55.3% /
29.4% |
4.9 /
4.8 |
1.6% /
3.4% |
61.3% /
28.8% |
32.7 /
36.4 |
| 4 |
@GB |
14 – 35 L |
-16.9 |
38.2% /
41.4% |
2.9% /
6.9% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
5.8 |
40.0% /
48.0% |
26.7% /
4.0% |
3.4 /
3.7 |
64 /
54 |
36.0% /
43.2% |
39.1% /
44.4% |
25.6% /
50.6% |
4.8 /
4.8 |
3.1% /
0.0% |
46.9% /
46.3% |
28.5 /
33.5 |
| 5 |
MIN |
17 – 20 L |
-0.9 |
37.0% /
50.0% |
3.7% /
11.1% |
3.8% /
0.0% |
5.9 /
3.9 |
48.3% /
35.5% |
13.8% /
25.8% |
4.0 /
5.1 |
56 /
67 |
46.5% /
44.2% |
42.9% /
43.3% |
34.7% /
30.3% |
4.9 /
4.5 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
51.8% /
46.3% |
26.6 /
30.9 |
| 6 |
@BAL |
27 – 24 W |
4.4 |
28.6% /
27.3% |
19.0% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
4.9% |
5.3 /
3.8 |
41.8% /
46.2% |
29.1% /
15.4% |
4.2 /
4.8 |
76 /
70 |
42.1% /
37.3% |
38.2% /
34.3% |
41.1% /
21.6% |
4.5 /
4.2 |
2.6% /
1.4% |
72.4% /
37.1% |
27.6 /
29.9 |
Carolina Panthers
@ 
Chicago Bears