Buffalo Bills @

Seattle Seahawks

Sun, Oct 27
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 279
Odds: Seattle Seahawks +3, Total: 46

Game Analysis

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1-Star First Half – *Under (23.5 -115) – Buffalo (-3) vs SEATTLE

  • Seattle’s defense is getting back starting cornerback Tariq Woolen, who is allowing 0.29 yards per cover snap compared to backup CB Nehemiah Pritchett, who is surrendering 1.54 yards per cover snap. Woolen is worth nearly a point for the Seahawks on defense, and he will limit Bills WR Amari Cooper, who earned 5 targets in his first game after getting traded.
  • Buffalo’s interior offensive line is at fault for 58% of the pressures (5th-highest) and I expect Josh Allen to have to deal with collapsing pockets on Sunday. Seattle’s interior defenders Jarran Reed and Leonard Williams have combined for 40 pressures. Plus, first-round DT Byron Murphy looks healthy again and has a 12% pressure rate.
  • Seattle with be without wide receiver DK Metcalf, who has a league-high nine receptions with at least 20 air yards, and he leads the NFL with 24 contested catches. According to our numbers, Metcalf is worth 0.7 points to Seattle’s offense.
  • Geno Smith’s yards per attempt against a standard pass rush are only 84% of his yards per attempt versus the blitz (28th) and he will struggle as the Bills defense has an 80% standard pass rush rate (3rd-highest).
  • Buffalo edge defender Greg Rousseau ranks 15th in pass-rushing efficiency, and he will wreak havoc across from either a banged-up backup George Fant or fourth-string right tackle Mike Jerrell.
  • Bills LB Terrell Bernard is out and Buffalo’s rush defense surrendering 5.1 yards per carry (29th). I expect the Seahawks to feature the ground game with a more favorable matchup than the passing attack, especially in these conditions.
  • It will be 17 mph sustained winds in Seattle with gusts over 30mph and rain expected more in the first half than the second half.
  • Our model favors the Bills by 2.9 with a predicted total of 42.2 points.

The first-half Under is a 1-Star Best Bet at 23 points or more. Alternate play is 1-Star on the game Under 46 (to 45.5).

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