Game Analysis

PHILADELPHIA (-3/-3.5) vs Buffalo

Lean – Over (48.5)

· Jalen Hurts averaged just 4.6 yppp in his first game without TE Dallas Goedert, who had a 60% success rate (6th). However, the Eagles prevailed in Arrowhead anyway and Philadelphia has won 23 of Hurts’ last 25 regular season starts.

· The Bills likely will have two members of the secondary out this week with concussions in cornerback Dane Jackson and nickelback Taron Johnson, who is allowing only 0.78 yards per slot cover snap (5th).

· Buffalo added the remaining starting CB Rasul Douglas at the trade deadline, and he had two interceptions last week. Douglas will limit WR DeVonta Smith but Bills backup CB Christian Benford will struggle across from wide receiver AJ Brown, who is averaging 0.55 EPA/target (7th) and will be looking to bounce back after gaining only 8 yards from four targets last Monday night.

· Philadelphia’s offensive line ranks 18th in pass-blocking efficiency after ranking 2nd last season but a closer look reveals that the splits are vastly different with starting RG Cam Jurgens back in the lineup. The Eagles’ offensive line ranks 5th in pass-blocking efficiency in 5 games with Jurgens on the field compared to 26th in the 5 games without him.

· The Bills offensive line has been responsible for only 6 sacks this year (2nd-fewest) and they should be able to limit Philadelphia’s pass rush.

· Buffalo LT Dion Dawkins 13th in pass-blocking efficiency will line up across from Josh Sweat, who has 52 pressures (5th).

· Eagles’ interior defender Jalen Carter has 32 pressures (13th) but he will be contained by LG Connor McGovern, who ranks 6th in pass-blocking efficiency.

· James Cook will be bottled up as a runner and receiver on Sunday. The Bills average 0.02 EPA/rush (2nd) but the Eagles defense is allowing only a 35.7% rush success rate (7th). Cook is averaging 0.19 EPA/target (7th) but Philadelphia is conceding just a 37% pass success rate to running backs (8th).

· Josh Allen will instead look for TE Dalton Kincaid, who has a 66% success rate (3rd). The Eagles are surrendering 0.38 EPA/target to tight ends (31st).

· Our model makes Philadelphia a 2.5-point favorite with a predicted total of 49.0 points. I’ll lean over based on the favorable matchups for the offenses.