Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Over (43.5) – Buffalo (-1.5) vs NY GIANTS

The Bills held the Jets to 3.4 yards per play and I generally think their defense has been underrated since cornerback Levi Wallace joined the starting lineup in week 10 last year. The secondary is the strength of Buffalo’s defense but that is less important versus a Giants team without any competent wide receivers. The Bills have a mediocre rush defense and I could see Saquon Barkley having a huge outing in the home opener. Jerry Hughes led all edge defenders in pass rush efficiency last year and had a sack in the season opener, but I expect New York left tackle Nate Solder to battle with him and give Eli Manning just enough time to find tight end Evan Engram downfield (Engram is coming off 116 yards on 14 targets in week 1). New York’s offense surprised me last week in leading the league in early down success rate despite the tough matchup in Dallas and early down success is a good indicator of overall offensive success. That didn’t help the Giants last week but it’s a good sign going forward and the Bills’ defensive strength is minimized in this matchup.

Buffalo’s offense is built around Josh Allen scrambles and deep passes to John Brown and Zay Jones. The Giants do not have familiarity with Allen’s rushing style and their terrible secondary should be exploited downfield by the second-year quarterback. Dak Prescott had 5 completions on balls with 20+ air yards, tied for most in the league, against New York’s secondary last week. All four of Devin Singletary’s runs went for 10+ yards and I expect the rookie running back to be more heavily involved in this week’s game plan.

This line had flipped from Giants -1.5 on the look-ahead to Bills -1.5. I believe New York’s home field advantage needs to be slightly reduced because Buffalo has familiarity with this stadium having just played there last week. Our model makes Buffalo a 1.8-point favorite with a predicted total of 47.7 in a game that should be higher scoring than expected with both teams ranking in the top 10 in pace last week and with relatively good matchups against the opposing defenses. The Over is a Strong Opinion at 44 points or less.

Team Stats
Game Log

Bills
Giants

BUF

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 35.5 45.5
Succ Pass Plays 48.8% 43.9%
Sack Rate 5.9% 5.5%
Int Rate 2.7% 2.2%
Deep Pass Rate 18.3% 10.6%
Big Pass Yards 40.0% 12.7%
NYPP 6.8 4.3

Rush

Rush Plays 29.5 20.5
RB YPR 5.0 5.0
Stuff Rate 18.8% 19.2%
Succ Rush Plays 53.4% 61.2%
Big Rush Yards 43.9% 48.3%
Yards Per Rush 4.8 4.8

Game

All Snaps 65.0 66.0
Early Down Succ 55.3% 53.2%
Succ Rate 51.6% 49.2%
Big Yards Rate 41.4% 24.4%
Yards Per Play 5.8 4.5
Fumble Lost Rate 1.6% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.9 27.0
Run Ratio 45.2% 31.1%
Starting Field Pos 23.8 28.4
Game Control 0.9 -0.9

Points 22.5 15.0

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NYJ	17 – 16 W	-7.1	55.3% / 42.2%	2.6% / 8.9%	5.4% / 0.0%	6.4 / 3.4	48.0% / 52.4%	20.0% / 33.3%	5.1 / 3.2	63 / 66	54.9% / 46.8%	52.4% / 45.5%	50.0% / 9.9%	5.9 / 3.4	3.2% / 1.5%	39.7% / 31.8%	22.9 / 28.4
2	@NYG	28 – 14 W	8.9	42.4% / 45.7%	9.1% / 2.2%	0.0% / 4.4%	7.2 / 5.2	58.8% / 70.0%	17.6% / 5.0%	4.4 / 6.5	67 / 66	55.8% / 59.6%	50.7% / 53.0%	32.7% / 38.9%	5.8 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	50.7% / 30.3%	24.8 / 28.5

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@DAL	17 – 35 L	-11.2	55.1% / 71.9%	2.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.5 / 12.7	70.6% / 36.7%	11.8% / 16.7%	8.9 / 3.0	66 / 62	67.3% / 56.0%	59.1% / 54.8%	41.7% / 50.6%	7.1 / 8.0	3.0% / 0.0%	25.8% / 48.4%	21.1 / 23.6
2	BUF	14 – 28 L	-8.9	45.7% / 42.4%	2.2% / 9.1%	4.4% / 0.0%	5.2 / 7.2	70.0% / 58.8%	5.0% / 17.6%	6.5 / 4.4	66 / 67	59.6% / 55.8%	53.0% / 50.7%	38.9% / 32.7%	5.6 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	30.3% / 50.7%	28.5 / 24.8

Buffalo Bills @

New York Giants

Sun, Sep 15

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis