Buffalo Bills @

New York Giants

Sun, Sep 15
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 265
Odds: New York Giants +1.5, Total: 43.5

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Strong Opinion – Over (43.5) – Buffalo (-1.5) vs NY GIANTS

The Bills held the Jets to 3.4 yards per play and I generally think their defense has been underrated since cornerback Levi Wallace joined the starting lineup in week 10 last year. The secondary is the strength of Buffalo’s defense but that is less important versus a Giants team without any competent wide receivers. The Bills have a mediocre rush defense and I could see Saquon Barkley having a huge outing in the home opener. Jerry Hughes led all edge defenders in pass rush efficiency last year and had a sack in the season opener, but I expect New York left tackle Nate Solder to battle with him and give Eli Manning just enough time to find tight end Evan Engram downfield (Engram is coming off 116 yards on 14 targets in week 1). New York’s offense surprised me last week in leading the league in early down success rate despite the tough matchup in Dallas and early down success is a good indicator of overall offensive success. That didn’t help the Giants last week but it’s a good sign going forward and the Bills’ defensive strength is minimized in this matchup.

Buffalo’s offense is built around Josh Allen scrambles and deep passes to John Brown and Zay Jones. The Giants do not have familiarity with Allen’s rushing style and their terrible secondary should be exploited downfield by the second-year quarterback. Dak Prescott had 5 completions on balls with 20+ air yards, tied for most in the league, against New York’s secondary last week. All four of Devin Singletary’s runs went for 10+ yards and I expect the rookie running back to be more heavily involved in this week’s game plan.

This line had flipped from Giants -1.5 on the look-ahead to Bills -1.5. I believe New York’s home field advantage needs to be slightly reduced because Buffalo has familiarity with this stadium having just played there last week. Our model makes Buffalo a 1.8-point favorite with a predicted total of 47.7 in a game that should be higher scoring than expected with both teams ranking in the top 10 in pace last week and with relatively good matchups against the opposing defenses. The Over is a Strong Opinion at 44 points or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bills
  • Giants
BUF
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 0.0 0.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.0 0.0



Rush


  • Rush Plays 0.0 0.0
  • RB YPR 0.0 0.0
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.0 0.0




Game

  • All Snaps 0.0 0.0
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.0 0.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.0 0.0
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control 0.0 0.0
 
  • Points 0.0 0.0
Share This