Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Buffalo (-1 -105) over NEW ENGLAND

• Josh Allen’s mobility unlocks this offense. Allen scrambled for 84 yards last week (the most by a quarterback in a game this year), and I expect Allen to continue using his legs throughout the rest of this season with the playoffs around the corner and the divisional title up for grabs.
• Allen had a 53% play-action rate versus the Bengals, the fourth highest of any game in his career, and he has a favorable matchup against a Patriots defense that is surrendering 21% more yards per attempt against play-action compared to standard dropbacks (9th-worst).
• New England will again be without interior defender Milton Williams, who ranks 2nd in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Meanwhile, the Bills will likely get back starting RT Spencer Brown and edge defender Joey Bosa, who has a 16.0% pressure rate.
• On the other side of Buffalo’s defensive line, edge rusher Greg Rousseau have a good game lined up across from backup LT Vederian Lowe, who is surrendering a 9.1% pressure rate. Patriots’ starting LT Will Campbell was allowing a 5.9% pressure rate.
• Drake Maye loves to throw inside to slot receivers Demario Douglas and Stefon Diggs, who is averaging 0.57 EPA/target (5th). Douglas and Diggs will be limited by nickelback Taron Johnson, who is conceding 0.92 yards per cover snap in the slot (6th).
• There could be snow or flurries during this game, like we had with Buffalo last week. Snow increases scoring as long as it isn’t inches thick because it slows down the pass rush and causes players to slip when trying to make a tackle. Historically, games with light snow are 1-point higher scoring compared to average.
• Our model favors the Bills by 2.7 points, with a predicted total of 47.1 points, and the matchups favor Buffalo a bit.

Buffalo is a Strong Opinion at -1.5 or less.