Game Analysis
Lean – Under (47) – NEW ENGLAND (-11.5) vs Buffalo
The Patriots basically secured home-field advantage last week in Pittsburgh and I expect them to play conservatively on Sunday. In the Bill Belichick era, New England’s 32.5 rushing attempts per game in weeks 16 and 17 is the highest of any team and 4.3 attempts more than all other weeks. Rob Gronkowski will likely see less of the field than usual as the Patriots look to avoid retaliation after his dirty hit against the Bills that led to a suspension. Buffalo has the worst rush defense in my metrics since trading away Marcell Dareus and I expect New England to take full advantage.
My numbers have the Patriots as the worst rush defense this season and I expect LeSean McCoy to pick up where he left off where he left off 3 weeks ago when he ran for 6.2 yards per rush against that unit. My model doesn’t see any value on either side or the total but I’ll lean with the under because I think both teams will focus heavily on the ground game, which will shorten the game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
31.9
37.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
41.5%
45.4%
-
Sack Rate
7.7%
4.6%
-
Int Rate
2.3%
2.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.2%
16.0%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.6%
29.8%
-
NYPP
5.5
6.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
31.9
30.4
-
RB YPR
3.7
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
28.9%
26.0%
-
Succ Rush Plays
39.7%
38.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
49.4%
52.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.2
3.9
Game
-
All Snaps
63.9
67.7
-
Early Down Succ
41.9%
46.0%
-
Succ Rate
40.2%
43.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.6%
38.5%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
5.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.4
28.7
-
Run Ratio
49.4%
44.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.4
30.2
-
Game Control
-2.2
2.2
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.5
39.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
49.6%
48.3%
-
Sack Rate
6.1%
6.3%
-
Int Rate
1.4%
2.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
21.2%
20.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
44.0%
34.6%
-
NYPP
7.3
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
27.5
25.5
-
RB YPR
4.0
4.6
-
Stuff Rate
20.6%
17.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.8%
52.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
30.2%
42.0%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
4.9
Game
-
All Snaps
67.0
64.5
-
Early Down Succ
54.0%
53.5%
-
Succ Rate
50.0%
49.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
41.3%
39.3%
-
Yards Per Play
6.0
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
25.2
25.9
-
Run Ratio
40.4%
39.7%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.2
25.0
-
Game Control
5.6
-5.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYJ |
21 – 12 W |
3.8 |
43.3% /
37.5% |
6.7% /
2.5% |
3.6% /
5.1% |
7.3 /
4.4 |
33.3% /
25.0% |
24.4% /
31.3% |
4.3 /
2.4 |
75 /
56 |
37.7% /
35.9% |
37.3% /
33.9% |
68.1% /
26.5% |
5.5 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
60.0% /
28.6% |
25.3 /
29.7 |
| 2 |
@CAR |
3 – 9 L |
-4.0 |
35.7% /
50.0% |
10.7% /
15.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.8 /
4.7 |
21.7% /
34.5% |
39.1% /
37.9% |
3.0 /
2.7 |
51 /
67 |
30.6% /
44.9% |
29.4% /
43.3% |
20.5% /
39.1% |
3.5 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
45.1% /
43.3% |
21.1 /
31.3 |
| 3 |
DEN |
26 – 16 W |
1.6 |
50.0% /
37.2% |
13.3% /
7.0% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
6.6 /
5.9 |
27.0% /
39.1% |
27.0% /
26.1% |
2.1 /
4.8 |
67 /
66 |
42.2% /
38.0% |
37.3% /
37.9% |
44.4% /
59.3% |
4.1 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.2% /
34.8% |
39.8 /
23.7 |
| 4 |
@ATL |
23 – 17 W |
2.0 |
43.5% /
48.8% |
13.0% /
2.3% |
0.0% /
4.8% |
7.1 /
5.6 |
44.7% /
58.6% |
23.7% /
27.6% |
3.1 /
5.1 |
61 /
72 |
47.7% /
56.1% |
44.3% /
52.8% |
27.6% /
30.9% |
4.6 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
62.3% /
40.3% |
21.9 /
25.9 |
| 5 |
@CIN |
16 – 20 L |
-3.1 |
32.6% /
43.2% |
14.0% /
2.7% |
2.7% /
5.6% |
3.2 /
8.7 |
45.8% /
22.6% |
20.8% /
22.6% |
3.4 /
2.2 |
67 /
68 |
38.8% /
37.0% |
37.3% /
33.8% |
22.2% /
47.7% |
3.3 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
35.8% /
45.6% |
34.8 /
25.6 |
| 7 |
TB |
30 – 27 W |
2.0 |
44.1% /
64.4% |
2.9% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
7.7 /
8.4 |
42.4% /
32.0% |
27.3% /
20.0% |
5.2 /
2.8 |
67 /
70 |
37.3% /
52.5% |
43.3% /
52.9% |
65.0% /
26.4% |
6.5 /
6.4 |
1.5% /
2.9% |
49.3% /
35.7% |
33.7 /
27.0 |
| 8 |
OAK |
34 – 14 W |
5.5 |
55.6% /
49.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
4.1% |
6.1 /
6.4 |
45.0% /
42.9% |
17.5% /
14.3% |
4.2 /
3.9 |
67 /
63 |
55.3% /
51.0% |
49.3% /
47.6% |
48.6% /
28.9% |
5.0 /
5.8 |
0.0% /
3.2% |
59.7% /
22.2% |
35.7 /
22.4 |
| 9 |
@NYJ |
21 – 34 L |
-9.6 |
48.9% /
42.9% |
14.9% /
4.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.2 /
6.5 |
27.3% /
38.6% |
40.9% /
29.5% |
2.9 /
4.5 |
69 /
65 |
42.3% /
43.5% |
42.0% /
40.0% |
31.6% /
55.4% |
4.4 /
5.1 |
4.3% /
0.0% |
31.9% /
67.7% |
25.2 /
38.0 |
| 10 |
NO |
10 – 47 L |
-17.6 |
40.0% /
44.0% |
6.7% /
0.0% |
3.6% /
0.0% |
4.3 /
7.4 |
40.0% /
62.7% |
46.7% /
11.8% |
4.6 /
5.9 |
45 /
76 |
48.5% /
62.5% |
40.0% /
56.6% |
35.4% /
56.4% |
4.4 /
6.4 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
33.3% /
67.1% |
21.9 /
39.7 |
| 11 |
@LAC |
24 – 54 L |
-21.2 |
45.0% /
56.8% |
2.5% /
2.7% |
12.8% /
0.0% |
5.5 /
7.6 |
50.0% /
34.2% |
36.4% /
31.6% |
7.9 /
3.9 |
62 /
75 |
47.8% /
48.2% |
46.8% /
45.3% |
49.1% /
41.2% |
6.3 /
5.8 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
35.5% /
50.7% |
21.7 /
44.0 |
| 12 |
@KC |
16 – 10 W |
5.9 |
45.2% /
39.5% |
6.5% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
2.8% |
5.3 /
4.8 |
38.5% /
25.0% |
38.5% /
30.0% |
2.7 /
2.8 |
70 /
58 |
46.9% /
42.9% |
41.4% /
34.5% |
34.1% /
39.2% |
3.9 /
4.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.7% /
34.5% |
34.8 /
21.8 |
| 13 |
NE |
3 – 23 L |
-9.1 |
18.4% /
54.5% |
10.5% /
9.1% |
2.9% /
3.3% |
2.2 /
7.4 |
69.2% /
40.5% |
11.5% /
18.9% |
7.0 /
5.2 |
64 /
70 |
41.7% /
51.9% |
39.1% /
47.1% |
44.0% /
39.1% |
4.2 /
6.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
40.6% /
52.9% |
23.7 /
29.3 |
| 14 |
IND |
13 – 7 W |
3.4 |
33.3% /
27.3% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
6.7% /
0.0% |
6.1 /
2.9 |
32.7% /
31.9% |
25.0% /
29.8% |
4.4 /
3.5 |
67 /
69 |
26.7% /
29.8% |
32.8% /
30.4% |
53.4% /
17.5% |
4.8 /
3.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
77.6% /
68.1% |
24.7 /
35.8 |
| 15 |
MIA |
24 – 16 W |
10.0 |
45.2% /
40.4% |
6.5% /
5.8% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
6.8 /
4.8 |
38.7% /
57.1% |
25.8% /
33.3% |
3.8 /
4.8 |
62 /
73 |
43.2% /
50.0% |
41.9% /
45.2% |
52.9% /
30.9% |
5.3 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
50.0% /
28.8% |
33.1 /
28.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
KC |
27 – 42 L |
1.8 |
33.3% /
60.5% |
7.7% /
7.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.3 /
9.3 |
50.0% /
42.4% |
25.0% /
9.1% |
3.5 /
5.7 |
75 /
71 |
46.4% /
63.5% |
41.3% /
52.1% |
54.8% /
53.7% |
5.0 /
7.6 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
48.0% /
46.5% |
27.8 /
25.5 |
| 2 |
@NO |
36 – 20 W |
14.2 |
61.0% /
51.1% |
4.9% /
2.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.6 /
7.7 |
51.6% /
47.1% |
22.6% /
11.8% |
3.8 /
4.8 |
72 /
62 |
58.3% /
54.2% |
56.9% /
50.0% |
53.2% /
48.3% |
7.7 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.1% /
27.4% |
27.5 /
27.9 |
| 3 |
HOU |
36 – 33 W |
1.2 |
47.5% /
48.6% |
12.5% /
5.7% |
0.0% /
6.1% |
8.4 /
8.3 |
45.0% /
56.3% |
30.0% /
15.6% |
3.0 /
3.9 |
60 /
67 |
46.8% /
54.7% |
46.7% /
52.2% |
52.3% /
38.8% |
6.6 /
6.2 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
47.8% |
28.8 /
24.0 |
| 4 |
CAR |
30 – 33 L |
-1.9 |
60.4% /
61.3% |
6.3% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
6.1 /
9.8 |
73.7% /
51.7% |
21.1% /
20.7% |
4.2 /
4.8 |
67 /
60 |
66.7% /
54.9% |
64.2% /
56.7% |
22.0% /
48.0% |
5.6 /
7.4 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
28.4% /
48.3% |
26.1 /
26.7 |
| 5 |
@TB |
19 – 14 W |
4.4 |
51.2% /
48.9% |
7.0% /
4.3% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.7 /
6.8 |
47.8% /
55.0% |
17.4% /
20.0% |
4.9 /
4.5 |
66 /
67 |
53.7% /
55.6% |
50.0% /
50.7% |
24.6% /
37.2% |
6.1 /
6.1 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
29.9% |
27.7 /
27.4 |
| 6 |
@NYJ |
24 – 17 W |
-0.1 |
39.5% /
54.0% |
0.0% /
8.0% |
2.6% /
4.3% |
6.8 /
6.7 |
61.5% /
40.0% |
7.7% /
24.0% |
4.6 /
3.0 |
64 /
75 |
49.0% /
50.9% |
48.4% /
49.3% |
29.5% /
46.0% |
5.9 /
5.5 |
1.6% /
1.3% |
40.6% /
33.3% |
28.7 /
24.0 |
| 7 |
ATL |
23 – 7 W |
11.4 |
48.4% /
58.8% |
6.5% /
2.9% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.8 /
6.6 |
56.4% /
54.5% |
12.8% /
18.2% |
4.2 /
5.5 |
70 /
56 |
57.7% /
65.9% |
52.9% /
57.1% |
38.4% /
26.8% |
5.8 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.7% /
39.3% |
28.8 /
21.9 |
| 8 |
LAC |
21 – 13 W |
4.4 |
50.0% /
46.7% |
6.0% /
3.3% |
0.0% /
3.4% |
6.3 /
6.4 |
43.8% /
66.7% |
28.1% /
19.0% |
3.0 /
7.5 |
82 /
51 |
46.8% /
60.0% |
47.6% /
54.9% |
21.3% /
38.7% |
5.0 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.0% /
41.2% |
30.5 /
20.5 |
| 10 |
@DEN |
41 – 16 W |
14.7 |
65.8% /
39.4% |
2.6% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.0% |
7.8 /
6.7 |
55.2% /
44.8% |
13.8% /
13.8% |
3.4 /
4.1 |
67 /
62 |
67.9% /
40.0% |
61.2% /
41.9% |
32.1% /
46.2% |
5.9 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
43.3% /
46.8% |
37.9 /
23.7 |
| 11 |
@OAK |
33 – 8 W |
15.9 |
56.1% /
45.3% |
9.8% /
7.5% |
0.0% /
2.0% |
8.1 /
4.4 |
55.0% /
76.2% |
25.0% /
14.3% |
4.5 /
5.2 |
61 /
74 |
60.4% /
59.6% |
55.7% /
54.1% |
40.2% /
24.4% |
6.9 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
8.1% |
32.8% /
28.4% |
23.1 /
23.0 |
| 12 |
MIA |
35 – 17 W |
13.1 |
44.8% /
47.5% |
3.4% /
17.5% |
3.6% /
6.1% |
7.6 /
3.9 |
42.9% /
42.1% |
16.7% /
31.6% |
4.8 /
3.5 |
71 /
59 |
50.0% /
51.1% |
43.7% /
45.8% |
69.4% /
23.5% |
5.9 /
3.7 |
1.4% /
1.7% |
59.2% /
32.2% |
31.6 /
25.9 |
| 13 |
@BUF |
23 – 3 W |
9.1 |
54.5% /
18.4% |
9.1% /
10.5% |
3.3% /
2.9% |
7.4 /
2.2 |
40.5% /
69.2% |
18.9% /
11.5% |
5.2 /
7.0 |
70 /
64 |
51.9% /
41.7% |
47.1% /
39.1% |
39.1% /
44.0% |
6.2 /
4.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.9% /
40.6% |
29.3 /
23.7 |
| 14 |
@MIA |
20 – 27 L |
-7.4 |
33.3% /
45.0% |
4.4% /
5.0% |
4.7% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
6.1 |
30.0% /
40.6% |
40.0% /
21.9% |
2.5 /
3.8 |
55 /
72 |
40.9% /
50.0% |
32.7% /
43.1% |
56.9% /
35.3% |
4.5 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
18.2% /
44.4% |
24.2 /
28.8 |
| 15 |
@PIT |
27 – 24 W |
-2.6 |
48.6% /
50.0% |
5.4% /
6.3% |
2.9% /
3.3% |
7.6 /
8.4 |
57.1% /
51.6% |
9.5% /
16.1% |
3.8 /
4.6 |
58 /
63 |
59.1% /
46.8% |
51.7% /
50.8% |
44.2% /
39.0% |
6.2 /
6.6 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.2% /
49.2% |
23.1 /
26.6 |
Buffalo Bills
@ 
New England Patriots