Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Under (50) – Buffalo (-8) vs MIAMI

• This is a pace bet. I expect this game to have the fewest number of snaps of any week 10 game, making it hard to justify it being the highest total on the slate.
• Buffalo ran on more than half their snaps against the Chiefs and that formula worked. The Bills know where their bread is buttered this season, and the ground game should continue to be their focus on Sunday.
• Buffalo’s defense is allowing 0.04 EPA/rush (29th) and Miami’s offense is also going to keep the ball on the ground as long as they can stay in this game.
• These offenses are both in the bottom 5 of tempo in the NFL. The Bills and Dolphins are averaging 28.6 seconds per competitive play, which strips out garbage time, 2-minute drill, etc.
• Miami traded edge defender Jaelan Phillips, and edge defender Chop Robinson is out but the Dolphins have depth at the position.  Phillips and Robinson combined for a 14.6% pressure rate compared to edge rushers Bradley Chubb and Matthew Judon, who are combining for an 11.2% pressure rate.
• Tua Tagovailoa is throwing 27.2% of his passes to running backs (2nd-most), but the screens to RB De’Von Achane will be shut down as Buffalo’s defense is conceding a league-low -0.36 EPA/target to opposing running backs.
• It looks like Bills CB Benford is likely to miss this game after the Buffalo elevated a cornerback from the practice squad. He is worth 1 point and I’ll assume he’s out.
• Our model favors the Bills by 12.1 points, with a predicted total of 45.9 points. A 54-125-4 ATS road favorite letdown situation applies to the Bills based on last week’s win over the Chiefs and I used Miami in my spread pool.

The Under is a Strong Opinion at 49 or more.