Game Analysis

MIAMI (-2.5) vs Buffalo

Lean – Under (48.5)

• The Bills defense allowed only a 23.8% rush success rate in week 1 (4th) and Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert is out so Miami’s ground game could struggle on Thursday night.
• However, Buffalo’s defense will not be able to contain RB De’Von Achane as a receiver. The Bills defense surrendered a 53% pass success rate to running backs last year (31st) and they can’t control opposing screen games without All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano, who is sidelined with a bicep tear.
• Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle combined for 315 receiving yards in week 1 with 240 yards coming after the catch for Miami’s offense.
• Bills CB Rasul Douglas conceded 0.11 yards per cover snap last week (5th) and he should limit Waddle, who averaged 0.44 EPA/target in 2023 (9th).
• Tyreek Hill averaged a league-high 3.37 yards per route run in the slot last year and he has a favorable matchup on the inside as Buffalo starting nickelback Taron Johnson is out. Johnson conceded 0.74 yards per cover snap in the slot last year (4th) and his backup Ja’Marcus Ingram surrendered 2.90 yards per cover snap in the slot last week. Johnson is worth 0.8 points over Ingram.
• Bills edge rushers Greg Rousseau and Von Miller combined for 9 pressures in week 1 but they will not be able to replicate it in this game. Dolphins RT Austin Jackson ranked 3rd in pass blocking efficiency last year and LT Terron Armstead conceded just 1 pressure last week.
• Miami LG Robert Jones had more pass blocking snaps without a pressure conceded than every guard in week 1 and he will slow Buffalo DT Ed Oliver, who ranked 5th in pass rushing efficiency last season.
• Josh Allen had a league-high 66.7% success rate last week despite contending with consistent 20 mph winds. Allen had just 2 throws with 20+ air yards which is only the 15th game in his career with less than 3 deep passes. He should throw downfield more often in this game.
• Dolphins edge defender Jaelan Phillips tore his Achilles last November but looked sharp in his first game back with a sack on 3rd down in a tie game late in the fourth quarter setting up his team for the game-winning field goal drive. Phillips will be limited this week as Bills tackles Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown did not concede a pressure in week 1.
• Our model makes Miami a 1.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 45.7.