Game Analysis
The Bills sport the league’s top rushing attack as measured by adjusted YPR and success rate. More impressive is the fact that the Bills have run the ball 50% of the time, so they have been successful, even with opposing defenses knowing what is coming. Look for them to grind down a Dolphins D which is allowing 4.6 YPR (29th). Offensively for the Dolphins, quarterback Ryan Tannehill has continued to be erratic, throwing more INTs (7) than TDs (6). Defensively the Bills have surrendered 17.2 points per game which is good for 7th in the league on an adjusted basis. Shady has been ruled out for Sunday’s contest but our model still sees Buffalo covering with a lean to the Bills (-3). No opinion on Total.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.0
37.5
-
Succ Pass Plays
40.0%
44.3%
-
Sack Rate
7.4%
8.9%
-
Int Rate
1.2%
2.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
18.2%
25.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.2%
44.2%
-
NYPP
5.6
6.6
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.5
28.3
-
RB YPR
4.6
3.4
-
Stuff Rate
28.9%
23.2%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.6%
43.9%
-
Big Rush Yards
62.6%
39.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
5.2
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
60.5
65.8
-
Early Down Succ
49.9%
49.1%
-
Succ Rate
46.3%
44.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
51.8%
43.6%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
1.5%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.1
28.9
-
Run Ratio
49.9%
43.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.9
25.8
-
Game Control
4.7
-4.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
33.7
37.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.6%
45.2%
-
Sack Rate
9.4%
5.0%
-
Int Rate
4.2%
1.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.5%
14.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
58.8%
35.1%
-
NYPP
6.8
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.3
34.3
-
RB YPR
4.2
4.5
-
Stuff Rate
17.4%
20.4%
-
Succ Rush Plays
45.0%
44.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
36.3%
42.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
4.6
Game
-
All Snaps
55.0
71.7
-
Early Down Succ
47.8%
50.2%
-
Succ Rate
44.3%
44.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
54.3%
39.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.9
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.3
28.8
-
Run Ratio
38.1%
47.3%
-
Starting Field Pos
27.4
28.3
-
Game Control
-3.9
3.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@BAL |
7 – 13 L |
-3.5 |
37.5% /
44.7% |
8.3% /
10.5% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.0 /
5.9 |
45.8% /
35.5% |
41.7% /
22.6% |
2.7 /
2.8 |
48 /
69 |
45.5% /
45.8% |
41.7% /
40.6% |
38.8% /
47.9% |
3.3 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
50.0% /
44.9% |
31.9 /
23.1 |
| 2 |
NYJ |
31 – 37 L |
-2.8 |
53.3% /
57.1% |
0.0% /
2.9% |
3.3% /
0.0% |
10.2 /
10.6 |
47.4% /
45.9% |
42.1% /
16.2% |
4.5 /
3.4 |
49 /
72 |
56.8% /
50.9% |
51.0% /
51.4% |
54.5% /
54.5% |
8.0 /
6.9 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
38.8% /
51.4% |
26.1 /
24.6 |
| 3 |
ARI |
34 – 18 W |
12.1 |
27.6% /
40.0% |
13.8% /
9.1% |
4.0% /
8.0% |
3.0 /
4.7 |
51.4% /
40.9% |
25.7% /
31.8% |
6.0 /
4.0 |
64 /
77 |
47.8% /
42.6% |
40.6% /
40.3% |
80.9% /
27.0% |
4.7 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
54.7% /
28.6% |
33.8 /
32.3 |
| 4 |
@NE |
16 – 0 W |
11.1 |
43.9% /
43.3% |
4.9% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
6.2 |
56.3% /
40.9% |
21.9% /
27.3% |
4.2 /
4.1 |
73 /
52 |
50.0% /
51.4% |
49.3% /
42.3% |
22.8% /
34.3% |
5.2 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.9% |
43.8% /
42.3% |
23.3 /
22.9 |
| 5 |
@LA |
30 – 19 W |
4.3 |
36.0% /
42.9% |
8.0% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
4.5 /
6.9 |
46.4% /
55.2% |
28.6% /
13.8% |
6.9 /
3.5 |
53 /
64 |
45.0% /
54.0% |
41.5% /
48.4% |
56.5% /
54.8% |
5.8 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
52.8% /
45.3% |
34.0 /
21.2 |
| 6 |
SF |
45 – 16 W |
6.8 |
41.9% /
37.5% |
9.7% /
9.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.8 /
5.2 |
62.2% /
44.8% |
13.3% /
27.6% |
7.0 /
4.6 |
76 /
61 |
54.1% /
50.0% |
53.9% /
41.0% |
57.7% /
42.9% |
6.5 /
4.9 |
2.6% /
1.6% |
59.2% /
47.5% |
30.2 /
30.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2016 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@SEA |
10 – 12 L |
-1.6 |
21.2% /
50.0% |
12.1% /
6.5% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
4.8 /
5.2 |
35.0% /
50.0% |
30.0% /
21.9% |
3.2 /
3.5 |
53 /
78 |
28.2% /
54.2% |
26.4% /
50.0% |
53.2% /
19.6% |
4.2 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
37.7% /
41.0% |
32.1 /
22.5 |
| 2 |
@NE |
24 – 31 L |
-16.3 |
65.9% /
55.3% |
0.0% /
5.3% |
4.5% /
0.0% |
8.8 /
8.0 |
50.0% /
41.0% |
18.8% /
20.5% |
4.4 /
4.2 |
60 /
77 |
65.3% /
47.5% |
61.7% /
48.1% |
41.2% /
38.8% |
7.7 /
6.1 |
3.3% /
1.3% |
26.7% /
50.6% |
22.7 /
31.4 |
| 3 |
CLE |
30 – 24 W |
2.6 |
53.8% /
40.5% |
2.6% /
9.5% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
8.0 /
6.2 |
56.0% /
51.5% |
12.0% /
24.2% |
4.6 /
5.2 |
64 /
75 |
61.1% /
51.7% |
54.7% /
45.3% |
47.2% /
58.7% |
6.7 /
5.7 |
1.6% /
1.3% |
39.1% /
44.0% |
28.7 /
26.8 |
| 4 |
@CIN |
7 – 22 L |
-7.4 |
26.7% /
46.9% |
16.7% /
3.1% |
4.0% /
0.0% |
5.3 /
8.9 |
30.8% /
24.4% |
7.7% /
31.7% |
4.8 /
2.0 |
43 /
73 |
32.3% /
42.0% |
27.9% /
34.2% |
59.5% /
42.9% |
5.2 /
5.0 |
2.3% /
0.0% |
30.2% /
56.2% |
22.7 /
30.8 |
| 5 |
TEN |
17 – 30 L |
-5.7 |
37.5% /
37.9% |
25.0% /
0.0% |
11.1% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
5.6 |
47.1% /
59.1% |
11.8% /
18.2% |
3.0 /
5.4 |
41 /
73 |
43.3% /
58.2% |
41.5% /
50.7% |
64.0% /
42.5% |
4.9 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
41.5% /
60.3% |
21.2 /
34.9 |
| 6 |
PIT |
30 – 15 W |
5.2 |
56.3% /
40.5% |
0.0% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
5.7% |
7.9 /
4.6 |
51.4% /
41.2% |
24.3% /
5.9% |
6.0 /
7.6 |
69 /
54 |
56.6% /
47.5% |
53.6% /
40.7% |
60.6% /
36.2% |
6.9 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
53.6% /
31.5% |
37.0 /
23.4 |
Buffalo Bills
@ 
Miami Dolphins