Game Analysis

Note: The line has moved down to +3.5 but the Rams are still a Best Bet.

1-Star Best Bet – *LA RAMS (+4) over Buffalo

• Rams starting RT Rob Havenstein was back on the field last week and Los Angeles kept Matthew Stafford clean on 69% of his dropbacks versus the Saints. Stafford made the most of the protection averaging 9.7 yppp when he wasn’t pressured.
• The Rams offensive line has four of the five starters who ranked 5th in pass blocking efficiency in the stretch post-bye last season when they averaged 29.3 points per game.
• Los Angeles’s only different offensive lineman is at center. Last season, they had Coleman Shelton, who surrendered a 5.4% pressure rate. The current starter, C Beaux Limmer, is allowing a 4.1% pressure rate.
• Buffalo’s defense has a 6.9% sack rate (20th) and a 31% pressure rate (9th-worst) and I think Stafford will get the protection he requires to score into the upper 20s.
• Stafford was reported to have a lateral ankle sprain but says his ankle feels pretty good and he was a full participant in practice. Stafford came up limping with the sore ankle in New Orleans and two plays later Sean McVay called a sneak on a 4th and 1 indicating it is not severe.
• The Rams have a 45% rush success rate (4th) and a favorable matchup on the ground versus a Bills defense allowing 4.9 yards per rush (30th).
• Meanwhile, Los Angeles has the 3rd-rated rush defense according to our metrics and they will limit Buffalo’s offense averaging 0.05 EPA/rush (4th).
• Josh Allen will be under duress versus a Rams’ defense with a 38% pressure rate (4th). Los Angeles edge defender Byron Young ranks 14th in pass-rushing efficiency and leads the NFL with 5 forced turnovers via pressure. Opposite Young, edge rusher Jared Verse has 54 pressures (3rd).
• The Bills offense is playing at an elite level lately but teams that score 95 points or more over a 3-game span are not good bets and the Bills apply to an 86-164-7 ATS situation that is based on that premise.
• Our model favors the Bills by just 0.5 points, with a predicted total of 50.1 points, and the situation is favorable for the Rams.

The LA Rams are a 1-Star Best Bet at +3.5 points or more.