Buffalo Bills @

Los Angeles Chargers

Sun, Nov 19
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 467
Odds: Los Angeles Chargers -4.5, Total: 43.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – Under (43.5) – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-4.5) vs Buffalo

Philip Rivers is banged up and the Chargers 30th-ranked rush defense will face an offense with the 4th highest rushing rate but that’s where the positive news for Buffalo ends. In fact, the Bills ground game hasn’t been the same threat as years past gaining just 3.8 yards per attempt (24th) this season after ranking first a year ago.

Buffalo lost by 37 points at home last week to the Saints and the Bills have made a change at quarterback. Nathan Peterman will replace Tyrod Taylor under center, which should negatively affect the Bills offensive output, at least in the short term. Taylor is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league because fans do not value turnover prevention and rushing ability. In fact, my numbers have Taylor ranked 19th in points added this season mostly due to his 1.3% interception rate (3rd) and 237 rushing yards (4th among QBs).

Historically, quarterbacks do not perform well in their first start and the Bills offense to be worse with Peterman at the helm than if they started Taylor on Sunday. The line value favors the Chargers but I don’t trust them as a favorite, as LA is 5-14 ATS laying points recently and 0-4 straight up their last 4 when favored. Plus, Buffalo applies to an 82-39-3 ATS blowout bounce-back situation that plays on underdogs that lost by 14 points or more and allowed 42 points or more in their previous game. That angle will keep me off of the Chargers but our model leans towards the under.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bills
  • Chargers
BUF
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 32.4 37.9
  • Succ Pass Plays 43.7% 46.3%
  • Sack Rate 9.1% 4.1%
  • Int Rate 1.1% 3.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.7% 16.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 38.7% 36.1%
  • NYPP 5.7 6.4



Rush


  • Rush Plays 30.8 29.1
  • RB YPR 3.1 3.7
  • Stuff Rate 29.7% 24.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 36.4% 39.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.9% 47.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.7 3.8




Game

  • All Snaps 63.2 67.0
  • Early Down Succ 42.3% 46.8%
  • Succ Rate 40.0% 44.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 40.4% 41.2%
  • Yards Per Play 4.6 5.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 1.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.4 28.7
  • Run Ratio 48.1% 42.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 28.8 29.3
  • Game Control -2.1 2.1
 
  • Points 20.4 21.8
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