Game Analysis
Lean – Under (43.5) – LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-4.5) vs Buffalo
Philip Rivers is banged up and the Chargers 30th-ranked rush defense will face an offense with the 4th highest rushing rate but that’s where the positive news for Buffalo ends. In fact, the Bills ground game hasn’t been the same threat as years past gaining just 3.8 yards per attempt (24th) this season after ranking first a year ago.
Buffalo lost by 37 points at home last week to the Saints and the Bills have made a change at quarterback. Nathan Peterman will replace Tyrod Taylor under center, which should negatively affect the Bills offensive output, at least in the short term. Taylor is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league because fans do not value turnover prevention and rushing ability. In fact, my numbers have Taylor ranked 19th in points added this season mostly due to his 1.3% interception rate (3rd) and 237 rushing yards (4th among QBs).
Historically, quarterbacks do not perform well in their first start and the Bills offense to be worse with Peterman at the helm than if they started Taylor on Sunday. The line value favors the Chargers but I don’t trust them as a favorite, as LA is 5-14 ATS laying points recently and 0-4 straight up their last 4 when favored. Plus, Buffalo applies to an 82-39-3 ATS blowout bounce-back situation that plays on underdogs that lost by 14 points or more and allowed 42 points or more in their previous game. That angle will keep me off of the Chargers but our model leans towards the under.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.4
37.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.7%
46.3%
-
Sack Rate
9.1%
4.1%
-
Int Rate
1.1%
3.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
19.7%
16.4%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.7%
36.1%
-
NYPP
5.7
6.4
Rush
-
Rush Plays
30.8
29.1
-
RB YPR
3.1
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
29.7%
24.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
36.4%
39.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.9%
47.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.7
3.8
Game
-
All Snaps
63.2
67.0
-
Early Down Succ
42.3%
46.8%
-
Succ Rate
40.0%
44.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
40.4%
41.2%
-
Yards Per Play
4.6
5.3
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.6%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
26.4
28.7
-
Run Ratio
48.1%
42.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.8
29.3
-
Game Control
-2.1
2.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.0
38.0
-
Succ Pass Plays
43.8%
42.6%
-
Sack Rate
3.5%
8.9%
-
Int Rate
2.1%
2.2%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.0%
15.7%
-
Big Pass Yards
34.3%
32.4%
-
NYPP
6.5
5.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.1
29.3
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.7
-
Stuff Rate
32.3%
23.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
35.1%
44.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
56.1%
45.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.8
4.7
Game
-
All Snaps
61.1
67.3
-
Early Down Succ
43.0%
45.2%
-
Succ Rate
40.7%
43.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.5%
38.8%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.5%
0.7%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
27.4
29.7
-
Run Ratio
38.9%
43.6%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.2
28.3
-
Game Control
-1.9
1.9
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
NYJ |
21 – 12 W |
3.8 |
43.3% / 37.5% |
6.7% / 2.5% |
3.6% / 5.1% |
7.3 / 4.4 |
33.3% / 25.0% |
24.4% / 31.3% |
4.3 / 2.4 |
75 / 56 |
37.7% / 35.9% |
37.3% / 33.9% |
68.1% / 26.5% |
5.5 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
60.0% / 28.6% |
25.3 / 29.7 |
2 |
@CAR |
3 – 9 L |
-4.0 |
35.7% / 50.0% |
10.7% / 15.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
3.8 / 4.7 |
21.7% / 34.5% |
39.1% / 37.9% |
3.0 / 2.7 |
51 / 67 |
30.6% / 44.9% |
29.4% / 43.3% |
20.5% / 39.1% |
3.5 / 3.8 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
45.1% / 43.3% |
21.1 / 31.3 |
3 |
DEN |
26 – 16 W |
1.6 |
50.0% / 37.2% |
13.3% / 7.0% |
0.0% / 5.0% |
6.6 / 5.9 |
27.0% / 39.1% |
27.0% / 26.1% |
2.1 / 4.8 |
67 / 66 |
42.2% / 38.0% |
37.3% / 37.9% |
44.4% / 59.3% |
4.1 / 5.5 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
55.2% / 34.8% |
39.8 / 23.7 |
4 |
@ATL |
23 – 17 W |
2.0 |
43.5% / 48.8% |
13.0% / 2.3% |
0.0% / 4.8% |
7.1 / 5.6 |
44.7% / 58.6% |
23.7% / 27.6% |
3.1 / 5.1 |
61 / 72 |
47.7% / 56.1% |
44.3% / 52.8% |
27.6% / 30.9% |
4.6 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
62.3% / 40.3% |
21.9 / 25.9 |
5 |
@CIN |
16 – 20 L |
-3.1 |
32.6% / 43.2% |
14.0% / 2.7% |
2.7% / 5.6% |
3.2 / 8.7 |
45.8% / 22.6% |
20.8% / 22.6% |
3.4 / 2.2 |
67 / 68 |
38.8% / 37.0% |
37.3% / 33.8% |
22.2% / 47.7% |
3.3 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
35.8% / 45.6% |
34.8 / 25.6 |
7 |
TB |
30 – 27 W |
2.0 |
44.1% / 64.4% |
2.9% / 2.2% |
0.0% / 2.3% |
7.7 / 8.4 |
42.4% / 32.0% |
27.3% / 20.0% |
5.2 / 2.8 |
67 / 70 |
37.3% / 52.5% |
43.3% / 52.9% |
65.0% / 26.4% |
6.5 / 6.4 |
1.5% / 2.9% |
49.3% / 35.7% |
33.7 / 27.0 |
8 |
OAK |
34 – 14 W |
5.5 |
55.6% / 49.0% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
0.0% / 4.1% |
6.1 / 6.4 |
45.0% / 42.9% |
17.5% / 14.3% |
4.2 / 3.9 |
67 / 63 |
55.3% / 51.0% |
49.3% / 47.6% |
48.6% / 28.9% |
5.0 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 3.2% |
59.7% / 22.2% |
35.7 / 22.4 |
9 |
@NYJ |
21 – 34 L |
-9.6 |
48.9% / 42.9% |
14.9% / 4.8% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
5.2 / 6.5 |
27.3% / 38.6% |
40.9% / 29.5% |
2.9 / 4.5 |
69 / 65 |
42.3% / 43.5% |
42.0% / 40.0% |
31.6% / 55.4% |
4.4 / 5.1 |
4.3% / 0.0% |
31.9% / 67.7% |
25.2 / 38.0 |
10 |
NO |
10 – 47 L |
-17.6 |
40.0% / 44.0% |
6.7% / 0.0% |
3.6% / 0.0% |
4.3 / 7.4 |
40.0% / 62.7% |
46.7% / 11.8% |
4.6 / 5.9 |
45 / 76 |
48.5% / 62.5% |
40.0% / 56.6% |
35.4% / 56.4% |
4.4 / 6.4 |
0.0% / 1.3% |
33.3% / 67.1% |
21.9 / 39.7 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@DEN |
21 – 24 L |
-6.6 |
47.1% / 50.0% |
2.9% / 12.5% |
3.0% / 3.6% |
5.4 / 5.7 |
27.3% / 40.5% |
31.8% / 18.9% |
2.9 / 3.8 |
56 / 69 |
42.9% / 44.2% |
39.3% / 44.9% |
27.7% / 47.8% |
4.4 / 4.7 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
39.3% / 53.6% |
31.6 / 31.8 |
2 |
MIA |
17 – 19 L |
2.0 |
62.5% / 44.4% |
2.5% / 5.6% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.1 / 6.3 |
28.6% / 36.4% |
50.0% / 30.3% |
3.1 / 3.4 |
54 / 69 |
58.7% / 43.4% |
53.7% / 40.6% |
28.6% / 38.9% |
6.8 / 4.9 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
25.9% / 47.8% |
24.9 / 26.4 |
3 |
KC |
10 – 24 L |
-8.0 |
35.7% / 34.6% |
4.8% / 19.2% |
7.5% / 0.0% |
5.4 / 4.7 |
34.6% / 56.0% |
34.6% / 20.0% |
4.0 / 7.6 |
68 / 51 |
34.5% / 50.0% |
35.3% / 45.1% |
39.1% / 55.0% |
4.9 / 6.1 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
38.2% / 49.0% |
22.8 / 30.5 |
4 |
PHI |
24 – 26 L |
-6.2 |
42.5% / 46.9% |
5.0% / 3.1% |
0.0% / 0.0% |
8.6 / 7.5 |
38.5% / 47.7% |
46.2% / 20.5% |
4.5 / 4.9 |
53 / 76 |
39.5% / 47.3% |
41.5% / 47.4% |
68.3% / 56.1% |
7.5 / 6.0 |
1.9% / 0.0% |
24.5% / 57.9% |
22.2 / 22.1 |
5 |
@NYG |
27 – 22 W |
-2.4 |
36.4% / 34.1% |
0.0% / 12.2% |
2.3% / 2.8% |
5.9 / 4.5 |
31.3% / 72.0% |
21.9% / 12.0% |
3.9 / 6.1 |
76 / 66 |
34.0% / 54.0% |
34.2% / 48.5% |
36.2% / 46.3% |
5.1 / 5.1 |
0.0% / 1.5% |
42.1% / 37.9% |
29.0 / 28.2 |
6 |
@OAK |
17 – 16 W |
-3.2 |
45.9% / 51.6% |
2.7% / 3.2% |
0.0% / 6.7% |
7.1 / 5.3 |
21.9% / 50.0% |
18.8% / 31.8% |
2.6 / 5.0 |
69 / 53 |
34.0% / 52.5% |
34.8% / 50.9% |
33.6% / 35.4% |
5.0 / 5.2 |
1.4% / 0.0% |
46.4% / 41.5% |
24.7 / 31.7 |
7 |
DEN |
21 – 0 W |
11.1 |
34.5% / 35.0% |
10.3% / 12.5% |
0.0% / 2.9% |
5.6 / 4.6 |
19.2% / 21.1% |
42.3% / 21.1% |
3.1 / 3.6 |
55 / 59 |
28.6% / 32.6% |
27.3% / 30.5% |
44.6% / 13.5% |
4.4 / 4.3 |
0.0% / 3.4% |
47.3% / 32.2% |
29.8 / 23.2 |
8 |
@NE |
13 – 21 L |
-4.4 |
46.7% / 50.0% |
3.3% / 6.0% |
3.4% / 0.0% |
6.4 / 6.3 |
66.7% / 43.8% |
19.0% / 28.1% |
7.5 / 3.0 |
51 / 82 |
60.0% / 46.8% |
54.9% / 47.6% |
38.7% / 21.3% |
6.8 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
41.2% / 39.0% |
20.5 / 30.5 |
10 |
@JAC |
17 – 20 L |
0.3 |
43.2% / 37.0% |
0.0% / 5.6% |
2.7% / 3.9% |
6.4 / 4.9 |
48.4% / 29.6% |
25.8% / 29.6% |
2.8 / 5.0 |
68 / 81 |
54.9% / 36.1% |
45.6% / 34.6% |
38.4% / 34.7% |
4.8 / 4.9 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
45.6% / 33.3% |
21.1 / 30.7 |