Game Analysis

Lean – Buffalo (+1.5) over JACKSONVILLE

Strong Opinion – Jakobi Meyers (Jack) OVER 4.5 Receptions (-125) at -140 odds or better

• Buffalo RB James Cook won the rushing title with 1621 yards, but he will be contained as Jacksonville’s defense is conceding -0.11 EPA/rush (7th).
• The Bills have a 31% play action rate (3rd-highest) and have a favorable matchup against a Jaguars defense allowing a league-high 32% more yards per attempt against play action compared to standard dropbacks. However, Josh Allen has been dealing with a foot injury that may hinder his ability to make plays outside of the pocket.
• Buffalo RG O’Cyrus Torrence surrendered 32 pressures (9th-most), and he will struggle across from interior defender Arik Armstead, who ranks 16th in pass rushing efficiency.
• Jacksonville nickelback Jourdan Lewis is sidelined, and he was allowing 0.96 yards per cover snap in the slot (7th). However, backup nickelback Jarrian Jones is conceding just 0.68 yards per cover snap in the slot and the downgrade isn’t major for the Jaguars defense.
• The Bills’ defense will be getting two starters back in safety Jordan Poyer and interior defender DaQuan Jones. The pair is worth 1 point according to our metrics.
• Poyer is allowing 0.48 yards per cover snap fewer than Buffalo backup S Cam Lewis.
• Jones has a 7.9% pressure rate and a 5.7% run stop rate compared to Bills backup interior defender Phidarian Mathis, who has only a 2.1% pressure rate and a 4.2% run stop rate.
• Buffalo’s defense likely won’t get back starting LB Terrel Bernard, who has a 6.2% run stop rate compared to backup LB Shaq Thompson with a 4.4% run stop rate.
• The Jaguars started the season with Walker Little at left tackle, but Cole Van Lanen took over and won the job while conceding only a 6.4% pressure rate. Jacksonville liked Van Lanen’s play enough to give him a 3-year, $51M extension last week. Little has been filling in for Patrick Mekari at right guard, but he might have to go back to left tackle with Van Lanen sidelined. Little has surrendered 9 sacks (3rd-most) and would struggle across from Buffalo edge defender Greg Rousseau, who ranks 15th in pass rushing efficiency.
• Bills nickelback Taron Johnson is allowing just 0.83 yards per cover snap in the slot (4th), and he will shut down WR Parker Washington, who is averaging 0.30 EPA/target (19th).
• Trevor Lawrence ranks 5th relatively versus two-high coverages compared to single-high, and he has a favorable matchup as Buffalo’s defense has a 62% two-high rate (3rd-highest).
• Our model favors the Bills by 0.2 points, with a predicted total of 49.7 points, and Jacksonville applies to a 7-39-1 ATS playoff situation. I’ll Lean with Buffalo as an underdog.