Game Analysis

Lean – Buffalo (-4) over INDIANAPOLIS

• The Colts averaged their worst efficiency of the season at -0.33 EPA/play after making the decision to bench Anthony Richardson and start Joe Flacco.
• Indianapolis starting RG Will Fries and starting C Ryan Kelly are out, but they get back starting LT Bernhard Raimann, who ranks 20th in pass blocking efficiency.
• I think Flacco should turn it around as the Colts are averaging a league-high 103% more yards per attempt against a standard pass rush than the blitz and the Bills have an 80% standard pass rush rate (3rd-highest).
• Indianapolis is averaging 21% more yppp versus zone coverage than man (5th) and they have a favorable matchup as Buffalo’s defense has an 83% zone coverage rate (4th-highest).
• Colts DT DeForest Buckner has 4 sacks in four games, and he will likely make it 5 for 5 on Sunday against C Connor McGovern, who ranks 5th-worst in pass blocking efficiency.
• Bills WR Khalil Shakir leads the NFL with a 73% success rate and his 14 forced missed tackles after the catch are more than any other wide receiver, but he will be challenged on the inside by nickelback Kenny Moore, who is conceding just 0.74 yards per cover snap (9th).
• Josh Allen will instead feature TE Dalton Kincaid, who is averaging 1.56 yards per route run (9th). Indianapolis is allowing 0.51 EPA/target to opposing tight ends (29th).
• Buffalo’s offense has a 43% rush success rate (8th) but they will struggle versus a Colts defense allowing -0.14 EPA/rush (8th).
• Our model favors the Bills by 8.4 points, with a predicted total of 49.0 points. There is enough line value to make the Bills a Best Bet but the matchups favor the Colts enough to keep us off the Bills as a play. We still lean with Buffalo at -4.