Game Analysis
HOUSTON (-10) vs Buffalo
Deshaun Watson said he’d “for sure” play in this game despite his chest injury and he’s officially been upgraded to probable. Houston’s offensive line has improved since putting Kendall Lamm in the starting, ranking about average in pass blocking efficiency the last two games after leading the league in pressures conceded through the first 4 weeks. I assume the Texans will take extra caution protecting their banged-up young quarterback in this game. The matchup to watch will be DeAndre Hopkins, 5th among receivers in yards per route run, versus Tre’Davious White, 4th in yards allowed per cover snap. Hopkins gained 151 yards against Byron Jones last week, who ranked 3rd in yards allowed per cover snap going into that game, and he could have good success against White, who has played well this season but is nursing an ankle injury.
Houston’s offense managed just 16 points in regulation against the Cowboys despite 5 trips to the Redzone and their touchdown rate inside the 20 is now just 36%, which is lower than any team finished last season. The Texans gain 6.1 yards per play (9th) and I expect an offense of their quality to score more often in the Redzone moving forward, as there is a correlation between overall offensive efficiency and Redzone efficiency.
Our numbers have the Bills defense ranked 14th and they should have Pro Bowl Safety Micah Hyde back into the lineup this week. However, on the other side of the ball, Buffalo’s offense gains just 3.6 yards per play (last), which is more than 2 yards per play below average, and I expect Houston’s pass rushers to feast on Josh Allen (sacked 19 times) while limiting LeSean McCoy with their 9th-rated rush defense.
Our model favors the Texans by 12.3 points and this game would normally be under consideration for some sort of play. However, Houston applies to a 45-124-2 ATS big home favorite letdown situation that will keep me off of this game.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
30.6
37.2
-
Succ Pass Plays
37.7%
56.9%
-
Sack Rate
13.4%
7.2%
-
Int Rate
5.6%
2.3%
-
Deep Pass Rate
26.1%
12.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.9%
28.4%
-
NYPP
4.6
6.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
28.2
24.8
-
RB YPR
3.4
3.7
-
Stuff Rate
26.7%
34.7%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.9%
41.3%
-
Big Rush Yards
31.4%
57.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.6
3.7
Game
-
All Snaps
58.8
62.0
-
Early Down Succ
38.8%
49.6%
-
Succ Rate
37.6%
51.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
38.2%
33.9%
-
Yards Per Play
3.7
5.4
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.4%
2.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.2
30.4
-
Run Ratio
48.3%
41.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
31.9
30.6
-
Game Control
-5.7
5.7
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.8
36.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
53.3%
52.4%
-
Sack Rate
8.9%
7.5%
-
Int Rate
2.9%
2.7%
-
Deep Pass Rate
20.9%
17.1%
-
Big Pass Yards
39.5%
40.3%
-
NYPP
8.0
7.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.2
28.0
-
RB YPR
3.2
3.2
-
Stuff Rate
27.0%
24.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
41.0%
36.8%
-
Big Rush Yards
40.9%
27.9%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
3.3
Game
-
All Snaps
68.0
64.6
-
Early Down Succ
48.3%
43.6%
-
Succ Rate
48.1%
44.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
42.2%
37.3%
-
Yards Per Play
6.3
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.9%
1.0%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.1
30.5
-
Run Ratio
42.7%
45.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.4
25.2
-
Game Control
-3.6
3.6
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@BAL |
3 – 47 L |
-25.9 |
20.5% / 42.5% |
15.4% / 5.0% |
6.1% / 0.0% |
1.8 / 6.3 |
22.7% / 44.1% |
31.8% / 29.4% |
3.8 / 3.4 |
61 / 74 |
24.4% / 43.3% |
21.3% / 43.2% |
39.9% / 43.1% |
2.5 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 1.4% |
36.1% / 45.9% |
30.5 / 41.3 |
2 |
LAC |
20 – 31 L |
-14.5 |
36.8% / 65.5% |
13.2% / 6.9% |
6.1% / 0.0% |
5.5 / 8.3 |
54.5% / 33.3% |
31.8% / 40.7% |
3.8 / 4.1 |
60 / 56 |
45.7% / 55.6% |
43.3% / 50.0% |
59.0% / 44.0% |
4.9 / 6.3 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
36.7% / 48.2% |
26.7 / 36.5 |
3 |
@MIN |
27 – 6 W |
22.0 |
40.0% / 47.5% |
12.0% / 6.8% |
0.0% / 1.8% |
6.6 / 4.7 |
42.1% / 16.7% |
23.7% / 50.0% |
3.4 / 2.3 |
63 / 65 |
42.9% / 48.0% |
41.3% / 44.6% |
42.1% / 3.8% |
4.6 / 4.5 |
0.0% / 3.1% |
60.3% / 9.2% |
40.2 / 17.7 |
4 |
@GB |
0 – 22 L |
-12.8 |
27.5% / 47.6% |
17.5% / 4.8% |
6.1% / 2.5% |
2.2 / 6.7 |
43.8% / 56.3% |
25.0% / 37.5% |
3.6 / 4.4 |
56 / 74 |
37.5% / 50.0% |
32.1% / 51.4% |
31.0% / 49.6% |
2.6 / 5.7 |
1.8% / 1.4% |
28.6% / 43.2% |
27.3 / 27.4 |
5 |
TEN |
13 – 12 W |
2.6 |
63.6% / 81.3% |
9.1% / 12.5% |
10.0% / 7.1% |
7.2 / 7.6 |
46.5% / 56.0% |
20.9% / 16.0% |
3.3 / 4.0 |
54 / 41 |
43.8% / 51.2% |
50.0% / 65.9% |
18.8% / 29.0% |
4.1 / 5.4 |
0.0% / 4.9% |
79.6% / 61.0% |
34.8 / 30.2 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
1 |
@NE |
20 – 27 L |
-10.6 |
29.7% / 48.8% |
8.1% / 4.9% |
2.9% / 2.6% |
4.3 / 6.5 |
45.7% / 38.7% |
25.7% / 9.7% |
4.8 / 3.9 |
72 / 72 |
43.1% / 47.4% |
37.5% / 44.4% |
37.4% / 38.0% |
4.5 / 5.4 |
1.4% / 2.8% |
48.6% / 43.1% |
35.4 / 25.4 |
2 |
@TEN |
17 – 20 L |
-6.4 |
48.6% / 39.1% |
11.4% / 4.3% |
3.2% / 0.0% |
8.3 / 8.0 |
42.3% / 35.3% |
11.5% / 14.7% |
5.7 / 2.9 |
61 / 57 |
46.0% / 35.0% |
45.9% / 36.8% |
53.1% / 27.9% |
7.2 / 5.0 |
0.0% / 0.0% |
42.6% / 59.6% |
26.6 / 23.2 |
3 |
NYG |
22 – 27 L |
-7.6 |
53.7% / 60.6% |
7.3% / 12.1% |
2.6% / 0.0% |
9.0 / 8.0 |
42.1% / 32.1% |
36.8% / 25.0% |
3.1 / 4.1 |
60 / 61 |
50.0% / 47.8% |
50.0% / 47.5% |
53.4% / 41.3% |
7.1 / 6.2 |
1.7% / 0.0% |
31.7% / 45.9% |
28.9 / 22.2 |
4 |
@IND |
37 – 34 W |
6.7 |
55.3% / 48.5% |
14.9% / 6.1% |
2.5% / 0.0% |
7.4 / 6.6 |
42.9% / 41.2% |
28.6% / 41.2% |
3.4 / 2.4 |
82 / 83 |
49.2% / 44.6% |
50.0% / 47.0% |
37.1% / 26.6% |
5.7 / 5.8 |
0.0% / 2.4% |
42.7% / 20.5% |
33.4 / 24.1 |
5 |
DAL |
19 – 16 W |
-0.3 |
79.4% / 65.0% |
2.9% / 10.0% |
3.0% / 11.1% |
11.0 / 9.7 |
32.3% / 36.7% |
32.3% / 30.0% |
2.8 / 3.3 |
65 / 50 |
53.3% / 43.2% |
56.9% / 48.0% |
30.1% / 52.9% |
7.1 / 5.9 |
1.5% / 0.0% |
47.7% / 60.0% |
27.9 / 30.8 |