Buffalo Bills @

Houston Texans

Sun, Oct 14
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 267
Odds: Houston Texans -10, Total: 41

Game Analysis

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HOUSTON (-10) vs Buffalo

Deshaun Watson said he’d “for sure” play in this game despite his chest injury and he’s officially been upgraded to probable. Houston’s offensive line has improved since putting Kendall Lamm in the starting, ranking about average in pass blocking efficiency the last two games after leading the league in pressures conceded through the first 4 weeks. I assume the Texans will take extra caution protecting their banged-up young quarterback in this game. The matchup to watch will be DeAndre Hopkins, 5th among receivers in yards per route run, versus Tre’Davious White, 4th in yards allowed per cover snap. Hopkins gained 151 yards against Byron Jones last week, who ranked 3rd in yards allowed per cover snap going into that game, and he could have good success against White, who has played well this season but is nursing an ankle injury.

Houston’s offense managed just 16 points in regulation against the Cowboys despite 5 trips to the Redzone and their touchdown rate inside the 20 is now just 36%, which is lower than any team finished last season. The Texans gain 6.1 yards per play (9th) and I expect an offense of their quality to score more often in the Redzone moving forward, as there is a correlation between overall offensive efficiency and Redzone efficiency.

Our numbers have the Bills defense ranked 14th and they should have Pro Bowl Safety Micah Hyde back into the lineup this week. However, on the other side of the ball, Buffalo’s offense gains just 3.6 yards per play (last), which is more than 2 yards per play below average, and I expect Houston’s pass rushers to feast on Josh Allen (sacked 19 times) while limiting LeSean McCoy with their 9th-rated rush defense.

Our model favors the Texans by 12.3 points and this game would normally be under consideration for some sort of play. However, Houston applies to a 45-124-2 ATS big home favorite letdown situation that will keep me off of this game.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Bills
  • Texans
BUF
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 30.6 37.2
  • Succ Pass Plays 37.7% 56.9%
  • Sack Rate 13.4% 7.2%
  • Int Rate 5.6% 2.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 26.1% 12.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 39.9% 28.4%
  • NYPP 4.6 6.7



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.2 24.8
  • RB YPR 3.4 3.7
  • Stuff Rate 26.7% 34.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 41.9% 41.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 31.4% 57.1%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.6 3.7




Game

  • All Snaps 58.8 62.0
  • Early Down Succ 38.8% 49.6%
  • Succ Rate 37.6% 51.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 38.2% 33.9%
  • Yards Per Play 3.7 5.4
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.4% 2.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.2 30.4
  • Run Ratio 48.3% 41.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 31.9 30.6
  • Game Control -5.7 5.7
 
  • Points 12.6 23.6
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